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| Elam, Emmett W.; Holder, Shelby H.. |
| The Rice Outlook and Situation (RO&S) forecasts were compared to the forecasts of a univariate Box-Jenkins (BJ) model. On balance, the RO&S forecasts had lower mean square forecast errors and lower mean absolute forecast errors than the BJ model forecasts. The differences in the squared and absolute forecast errors were not significant, however. Based on the concept of conditional efficiency as set forth by Granger and Newbold, it was found that the BJ forecasts did not add any information that might improve forecast accuracy beyond what was already incorporated in the RO&S forecasts. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis. |
| Ano: 1985 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29980 |
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| Elam, Emmett W.; Davis, James. |
| This paper compares hedging risk for various weights of feeder cattle hedged with a traditional cross hedge and a ratio cross hedge. A traditional hedge calls for the purchase/sale of one pound of futures for each pound of cash feeder cattle. By contrast, a ratio hedge requires estimation of a hedge ratio to determine the number of pounds of futures needed to hedge one pound of cash feeder cattle. Hedge ratios were found to be larger than 1.0 for light-weight feeder cattle. By using the estimated hedge ratios, it was shown that hedging risk could be reduced 20-50 percent compared to that achieved by using a hedge ratio of 1.0. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 1990 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30012 |
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| Elam, Emmett W.. |
| Beginning with the September 1986 contract, feeder cattle futures have been settled based on cash settlement rather than physical delivery. The effect that cash settlement will have on hedging risk for feeder cattle was estimated using Arkansas prices for 1977-86, but the results should be representative of other markets. For 600-700 pound steers and heifers, hedging risk is estimated to be lower for hedges placed in the new cash settlement contract. For steers and heifers weighing less than 600 pounds, hedging risk is estimated to be lower for the cash settlement contract for fall hedges, whereas hedging risk is estimated to increase for spring hedges. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing. |
| Ano: 1988 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32158 |
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| Elam, Emmett W.. |
| This research examines cash forward contracting of fed cattle. For an individual feeder, a cash contract eliminates basis risk (as compared to a futures hedge). However, the disadvantage is that the contract price is estimated to be lower than the futures hedge price by $.28 - $.59/ cwt for steers and $.86 - $1.64.cwt for heifers. From the industry perspective, contracting appears to have a negative impact on cash prices. An increase of 1,000 head in U.S. monthly contract cattle shipments is associated with a $.003$.009/cwt decrease in the U.S. average cash price. The negative impact of cash contracting varies by state. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 1992 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30729 |
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| Elam, Emmett W.; Reeves, Jeanne M.. |
| The Cotton Wizard is an implementation of a cotton variety selection model intended to assist decision-makers (including producers, farm managers, extension specialists, and breeders) in variety selection. The program uses objective cotton performance test data available from state agricultural experiment stations. The decision criteria for variety selection are based on expected economic return (mean net revenue) of a variety and the variability of returns (coefficient of variation). Total revenue is calculated from lint price and seed price, and lint and seed yields. Lint and seed prices are determined by their respective quality characteristics. Adjustments are made for costs that may differ among varieties, such as planting seed cost (seed and... |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Production Economics. |
| Ano: 2010 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/99236 |
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