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Generic calibration of a simple model of diurnal temperature variations for spatial analysis of accumulated degree-days Organic Eprints
Felber, Raphael; Stoeckli, Sibylle; Calanca, Pierluigi.
Accumulated growing degree-days (aGDD) are widely used to predict phenological stages of plants and insects. It has been shown in the past that the best predictive performance is obtained when aGDD are computed from hourly temperature data. As the latter are not always available, models of diurnal temperature changes are often employed to retrieve the required information from data of daily minimum and maximum temperatures. In this study, we examine the performance of a well-known model of hourly temperature variations in the context of a spatial assessment of aGDD. Specifically, we examine whether a generic calibration of such a temperature model is sufficient to infer in a reliable way spatial patterns of key phenological stages across the complex...
Tipo: Journal paper Palavras-chave: Biodiversity and ecosystem services.
Ano: 2018 URL: http://orgprints.org/33018/1/Felber_etal_2018_IJournBiometeorology_DegreeDayModel_Vol62_issue4_p621-630.pdf
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Comparing two models of the diurnal temperature cycle for simulations of crop and pest phenology under climate change Organic Eprints
Felber, Raphael; Fuhrer, Jürg; Stöckli, Sibylle; Calanca, Pierluigi.
Air temperature is the most important determinant of crop and pest phenology. Developmental rates of organisms are thus usually modelled as a function of growing degree-days. These can be evaluated based on either daily or hourly temperatures. However, as climate model do not provide reliable information at high temporal resolution, statistical or empirical models are needed to generate hourly temperature data for assessing crop and pest phenology under climate change. We present the comparison of two approaches for generating hourly temperatures from daily values of the minimum (Tmin) and maximum (Tmax) temperature. The statistical downscaling approach proposed by Hirschi et al. (2012) uses a nearest neighbour re-sampling procedure to prescribe realistic...
Tipo: Conference paper, poster, etc. Palavras-chave: Food security; Food quality and human health Air and water emissions Crop health; Quality; Protection.
Ano: 2016 URL: http://orgprints.org/34552/1/16_AgMIP_Poster_final.pdf
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Simulating the Potential Distribution and Abundance of the Brown Marmorated Stink Bug (Halyomorpha halys) under Future Climate Scenarios in Switzerland Organic Eprints
Stöckli, Sibylle; Felber, Raphael; Haye, Tim.
The climate in Switzerland is changing. Depending on the emission scenario and time period, the projected increase in temperature is 2.7-4.8°C and the projected decrease in precipitation is 18-28%. There is scientific evidence that climate change will increase economic damage by agricultural pests. The prevention and management options of alien species are cost and time intensive. Climate change will improve the long-term suitability of potential new areas and amplify the need for action. Therefore it is highly important to assess the risk of alien species under future climate conditions and to plan an efficient monitoring and to develop management strategies. The brown marmorated stink bug (Halyomorpha halys) is an extremely polyphagous insect and has...
Tipo: Conference paper, poster, etc. Palavras-chave: Air and water emissions Biodiversity and ecosystem services Education; Extension and communication Landscape and recreation Research methodology and philosophy.
Ano: 2018 URL: http://orgprints.org/34541/1/Stoeckli_ESA_Halyo_20180823.pdf
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Schadorganismen-Szenarien: Sichern einer nachhaltigen Kulturpflanzenproduktion trotz erhöhten Schädlingsdrucks Organic Eprints
Mazzi, Dominique; Stöckli, Sibylle; Calanca, Pierluigi; Felber, Raphael; Grünig, Marc; Pellissier, Loic; Felder, Daniel.
Das Klima bestimmt entscheidend das Auftreten, die Ausbreitung und Entwicklung von Schadorganismen. Weil die Temperatur die Entwicklung von Insekten massgeblich steuert, ist durch die globale Er-wärmung mit einer steigenden Befallsgefährdung von Kulturpflanzen durch Schadinsekten zu rech-nen. Ausgehend von Klimaszenarien, Verbreitungsdaten und den bekannten Umweltansprüchen von Schadinsektenarten verwenden wir diverse Modellierungsansätze, um die Entwicklung und künftige Verbreitung ausgewählter, landwirtschaftlich relevanter Schadinsekten vorherzusagen. Die bearbeiteten Fallbeispiele umfassen sowohl in der Schweiz etablierte Arten, wie auch gebietsfremde Arten, welche erst kürzlich eingeschleppt wurden und solche, die in der Schweiz noch nicht vorkommen...
Tipo: Conference paper, poster, etc. Palavras-chave: Biodiversity and ecosystem services Crop health; Quality; Protection Landscape and recreation.
Ano: 2019 URL: http://orgprints.org/34526/1/04-Dominique%20Mazzi%20Schadorganismen-Szenarien%20-%20Sichern%20einer%20nachhaltigen%20Kulturpflanzenproduktion%20trotz%20erh%C3%B6hten%20Sch%C3%A4dlingsdrucks.pdf
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Assessing climate change impacts on fruit plant and pest phenology and their synchrony: the case of apple and codling moth Organic Eprints
Felber, Raphael; Stöckli, Sibylle; Calanca, Pierluigi.
Temperature is a main climatic driver of plant phenology and the dominant abiotic factor directly affecting insect pests. Global warming is therefore expected to accelerate the development of plants and insects alike. In the case of multivoltine pest species, it was shown that higher temperatures lead to the appearance of additional generations toward the end of the warm season (Stöckli et al., 2012), which also has implications for pest management. The same effect was shown for the timing of flowering termination of apple trees (Stöckli and Samietz, 2015), the time when a pest can attack a fruit. In practice, however, much would depend on whether plant and pest phenology remain synchronized or not. Focusing on Switzerland, in this contribution we...
Tipo: Conference paper, poster, etc. Palavras-chave: Food security; Food quality and human health Air and water emissions Fruit and berries Crop health; Quality; Protection.
Ano: 2017 URL: http://orgprints.org/34551/1/17_EGU_Poster_final.pdf
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Application of phenology models for Climate Services Organic Eprints
Felber, Raphael; Stöckli, Sibylle; Calanca, Pierluigi.
Global warming is expected to accelerate the development of plants and insects leading to earlier occurrence of phenological stages than under today’s climate. This can alter the exposure of plants to extreme climate events and further change the synchrony between host plants and pest insects. Assessing the implications of earlier development for the exposure to risks is necessary to inform adaptation. In this contribution we present an analysis of potential impacts of climate change on (i) the risk of early frost in apple orchards and damages to apple fruits due to critically high temperatures, (ii) the time of apple picking, and (iii) the potential of damages caused by the codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.), for three different apple cultivars in...
Tipo: Conference paper, poster, etc. Palavras-chave: Food security; Food quality and human health Air and water emissions Fruit and berries Crop health; Quality; Protection.
Ano: 2018 URL: http://orgprints.org/34550/1/180413_EGU18_Presentation%20fera_final.pdf
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Shifts in Apple Phenology under Climate Change in Switzerland and Implications for Exposure to Abiotic and Biotic Risks Organic Eprints
Felber, Raphael; Stöckli, Sibylle; Calanca, Pierluigi.
It is expected that the development of plants and insects will be accelerated by global warming, resulting in an earlier occurrence of phenological stages in the future as compared to today. For plants, this could lead to a higher exposure to climatic shocks (late frosts in spring, and critical high temperatures in summer) and changes in the incidence of insect pests. Assessing the implications of such shifts in phenology is important to be able to devise, where necessary, means for reducing biotic and abiotic risks in plant production. In this contribution we present an analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on the risk of late frost and damages to fruits caused by critically high temperatures in apple orchards across Switzerland. We further...
Tipo: Conference paper, poster, etc. Palavras-chave: Air and water emissions Fruit and berries Crop health; Quality; Protection.
Ano: 2018 URL: http://orgprints.org/34563/1/felber-etal-2018ESA2018_FinalAbstractBook_65.pdf
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Restricting the nonlinearity parameter in soil greenhouse gas flux calculation for more reliable flux estimates Organic Eprints
Hüppi, Roman; Felber, Raphael; Krauss, Maike; Six, Johan; Leifeld, Jens; Fuß, Roland.
The static chamber approach is often used for greenhouse gas (GHG) flux measurements, whereby the flux is deduced from the increase of species concentration after closing the chamber. Since this increase changes diffusion gradients between chamber air and soil air, a nonlinear increase is expected. Lateral gas flow and leakages also contribute to non linearity. Several models have been suggested to account for this non linearity, the most recent being the Hutchinson±Mosier regression model (HMR). However, the practical application of these models is challenging because the researcher needs to decide for each flux whether a nonlinear fit is appropriate or exaggerates flux estimates due to measurement artifacts. In the latter case, a flux estimate from the...
Tipo: Journal paper Palavras-chave: Specific methods; Air and water emissions.
Ano: 2018 URL: http://orgprints.org/34683/1/hueppi_etal_2018_PlosOne_Vol13_Issue7-p1-17.pdf
Registros recuperados: 8
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