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| Anderson, Michael A.; Ferrantino, Michael J.; Schaefer, Kurt C.. |
| Many improvements have been proposed for the basic gravity model specification, most of which are confirmed by standard statistical tests due to the large number of observations often used to estimate such models. We use Monte Carlo experiments to examine situations in which features of models may be found statistically significant (or insignificant) when it is known ex ante that they are absent (or present) in the underlying data process. Erroneous assumptions about the presence or absence of lagged dependent variables, fixed effects, free-trade associations and customs unions are shown to introduce economically important bias in estimates of the coefficients of interest, and in some cases to be confirmed spuriously. Policy effects, such as for free trade... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15864 |
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| Andriamananjara, Soamiely; Ferrantino, Michael J.; Tsigas, Marinos E.. |
| This paper introduces a set of new estimates of NTM price gaps in a standard simulation model and studies the economic effects of their removal. The economic impact of removing the NTMs on footwear, wearing apparel, and processed foods are estimated and discussed using three different techniques (tariff equivalent, export tax equivalent and sand-in-the-wheels). For all of the considered sectors, NTM liberalization leads to a large increase in world trade, and an improved global welfare. Most of the gains from the elimination of NTMs accrue to the liberalizing regions. |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15872 |
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| Andriamananjara, Soamiely; Dean, Judith M.; Feinberg, Robert; Ferrantino, Michael J.; Ludema, Rodney; Tsigas, Marinos E.. |
| The global economic effects of eliminating certain significant categories of nontariff measures (NTMs) are estimated in a CGE context. As a first step, a database of institutional information identifying alleged instances of NTMs for particular products and countries is constructed based on WTO, U.S. Government, and EU sources, and compared with the UNCTAD policy inventory. This database is then concorded to a GTAP-feasible multiregion, multisector aggregation. Retail price data from the EIU CityData database, similarly concorded, are analyzed econometrically, taking into account systematic deviations from purchasing-power parity, to determine whether and to what extent the presence of alleged NTMs is associated with significantly higher prices. The... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15863 |
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| Andriamananjara, Soamiely; Arce, Hugh M.; Ferrantino, Michael J.. |
| Data representing transshipment or re-exports are almost always excluded from analytical portrayals of international trade, yet transshipment is potentially an important phenomenon in understanding a number of economic questions, and is increasing in importance. Rapid technological change in areas such as containerization and hub-and-spoke routing has promoted the practice of transshipment. While there are significant gaps in the data, the share of re-exports in global exports has undoubtedly increased rapidly, from perhaps 1 in 20 in the mid- 1980s to perhaps 1 in 6 today. Econometric analysis of U.S. domestic exports and foreign exports (re-exports) over pairs of U.S. ports and destinations suggests that re-exports are significantly more sensitive than... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15871 |
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