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Deriving CGE Baselines from Macro-economic Projections AgEcon
Mueller, Marc; Ferrari, Emanuele.
Quantitative policy analysts are usually confronted with the problem to derive a base-line scenario that reflects the most likely state of an economy in a future year. The methods used in practice to derive such a base-line scenarios are heterogeneous and range from the usage of the last observable year to complete and consistent estimation procedures. In the case of general equilibrium (CGE) analyses, the Scenar2020 project (European Commission 2006a) is one example how projections of macro-economic indicators (exogenous drivers) are used to construct the base-line as a model scenario: Starting from a calibrated version, exogenous variables are modified until macro-economic projections are met. However, numerous projections refer to economic indicators...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: General equilibrium model; Baseline construction; Parameter estimation; Macro-economic projections; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114638
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The agri-food and other bio-based sectors in Spain. A description based on multiplier analysis AgEcon
Ferrari, Emanuele; Cardenete, Manuel Alejandro; Boulanger, Pierre; Delgado, M.C.; M'Barek, Robert.
The turnover of the EU agri-food sector overtops 2,000 billion Euros a year and employs roughly 22 millions workers. The focus of this paper is on the sectors directly linked to agricultural production and the food industry. Having a comprehensive understanding of extended agri-food economic linkages is critical when designing pertinent policies to deliver the full potential of strong EU agri-food and other bio-based sectors. A more disaggregated view is required. This study stars from a Social Accounting Matrices (SAM) for Spain with a highly disaggregated agricultural sector (AgroSAMs) for the year 2000. This study uses the AgroSAMs in its entire disaggregation, in order to provide a descriptive analysis of the agri-food and bio-based sectors. The limits...
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Agriculture; Food; Multiplier; Key sector; Spain; Agribusiness; C67; Q10.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124384
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