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| Registros recuperados: 21 | |
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| Fortenbery, T. Randall. |
| This paper examines three invited papers focused on commodity prices. Public responses to high nominal commodity prices and perceived increases in price risk have ranged from attempts to assign blame, attempts to change contracting arrangements, and development of public policy that ‘‘protects’’ the market from future occurrences of unacceptable behavior. Interestingly, a result of increased commodity price volatility has suggested that futures markets no longer ‘‘work.’’ This is ironic given that futures markets initially came into existence as tools for managing the negative impacts of commodity price risk. In response to perceptions of market failure some are looking for strategies to regulate the who and how of futures trading. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Futures markets; Hedging; Price risk; Risk management; Speculation; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty; G13; Q11; Q13; Q14. |
| Ano: 2009 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53084 |
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| Park, Hwanil; Fortenbery, T. Randall. |
| A system of equations representing corn supply, feed demand, export demand, food, alcohol and industrial (FAI) demand, and corn price is estimated by three-stage least squares. A price dependent reduced form equation is then formed to investigate the effect of ethanol production on the national average corn price. The elasticity of corn price with respect to ethanol production is then obtained. Results suggest that ethanol production has a positive impact on the national corn price and that the demand from FAI has a greater impact on the corn price than other demand categories. Thus, significant growth in ethanol production is important in explaining corn price determination. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Corn price; Ethanol; Simultaneous equations; Three-state least squares; Elasticity. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37565 |
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| Fortenbery, T. Randall; Cropp, Robert A.; Zapata, Hector O.. |
| The objective of this study is to provide an empirical evaluation of the expected relationship between cash and futures prices for fluid milk. This is done using historic cash prices from 1988 to 1995, and making inferences about how futures prices would have behaved if they had traded during this sample period. Futures prices are simulated over the sample period based on two assumptions about futures market behavior for fluid milk. The first is that the futures market will essentially price the Basic Formula Price (BFP). The BFP is an estimate of the previous month's pay price for Grade B manufacturing milk in Minnesota and Wisconsin adjusted for contemporaneous changes in the prices of manufactured milk products. It establishes the federal milk marketing... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis. |
| Ano: 1997 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12618 |
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| Zapata, Hector O.; Fortenbery, T. Randall; Armstrong, Delroy. |
| This paper examines the relationship between #11 sugar futures prices traded in New York and the world cash prices for exported sugar. It was found that the futures market for sugar leads the cash market in price discovery. However, we fail to find evidence that changes in the cash price causes changes in futures price, that is, causality is unidirectional from futures to cash. The finding of cointegration between futures and cash prices suggests that the sugar futures contract is a useful vehicle for reducing overall market price risk faced by cash market participants selling at the world price (i.e., not enjoying favorable trade incentives). Further reliability on the usefulness of the WSF as a price discovery market is found through the impulse response... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Industrial Organization. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12657 |
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| Fortenbery, T. Randall. |
| There has been considerable interest focused on the further development and expansion of a domestic bio-fuels industry. While most early attention from the commercial sector focused on ethanol, interest is now growing in the area of biodiesel production. Reasons for growing interest in biodiesel include its potential for reducing noxious emissions, potential contributions to rural economic development, as an additional demand center for agricultural commodities, and as a way to reduce reliance on foreign oil. Despite interest over the past decade or so, however, experience with biodiesel production in the US is limited. According to the Energy Information Administration, participants in the federal Bioenergy program produced only 18.6 million gallons of... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12629 |
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| Fortenbery, T. Randall; Dobson, William D.. |
| The contentious 2002 Farm Bill has been described by many as the most politicized farm legislation in recent history. Many lawmakers concluded that the 1996 Farm Bill was based on flawed assumptions and that U.S. farmers needed a more dependable safety net. Hence, their support for the 2002 Farm Bill, which represents a partial return to agricultural policies existing prior to the 1996 Freedom to Farm Bill. Many crop producers will see enhanced short-run returns under the new legislation. In addition, the new Farm Bill will remove incentives for expanded soybean production relative to corn in the U.S. Politically popular conservation payments increase under the new legislation. However, trading partners have been angered by the legislation. This will sour... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy. |
| Ano: 2002 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12740 |
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| Fortenbery, T. Randall; Zapata, Hector O.. |
| This paper examines the relationship between New York coffee futures and cash export prices in Guatemala and Honduras . Cointegration tests suggest that the futures market is serving its price discovery function, and provides a vehicle by which to manage the domestic price risk in export countries. However, further analysis finds that as the percent of speculative open interest increases in the coffee futures market, price volatility increases. This suggests that cash market price risk in exporting countries may actually increase as a result of futures trading activity in developed country futures exchanges. |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12592 |
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| Fortenbery, T. Randall; Park, Hwanil. |
| A system of equations representing corn supply, feed demand, export demand, food, alcohol and industrial (FAI) demand, and corn price is estimated by three-stage least squares. A price dependent reduced form equation is then formed to investigate the effect of ethanol production on the national average corn price. The elasticity of corn price with respect to ethanol production is then obtained. Results suggest that ethanol production has a positive impact on the national corn price and that the demand from FAI has a greater impact on the corn price than other demand categories. Thus, significant growth in ethanol production is important in explaining corn price determination. |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92200 |
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| Zapata, Hector O.; Fortenbery, T. Randall. |
| The temporal relationship between Chicago corn and soybean cash prices, nearby futures prices, and interest rates is examined using daily 1980-1989 data. Johansen cointegration tests suggest joint movement of the three series over the data period considered. In addition, analyses of individual crop years, which is consistent with previous work, shows co-movement between cash, futures, and interest rates in years when bivariate cointegration between cash and futures prices was not found. The results provide initial empirical evidence that a potential limitation of previous research in the study of cash- futures simple efficiency has been the exclusion of the interest rate as a common stochastic factor explaining equilibrium in models of cash and futures... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis. |
| Ano: 1995 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12637 |
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| Lin, Hua; Fortenbery, T. Randall. |
| The existence of a commodity market risk premium has attracted the interest of researchers for several decades. Most attempts to measure risk premiums have been focused on futures markets. However, if the risk premium is a payment made by hedgers (as suggested by Keynes) to reduce their risk profile, then the risk being reduced originates in the cash market. This suggests that the risk premium may also originate in the cash market. As such, the search for a risk premium should focus on the cash market, and, given Working's Supply of Storage Curve, should be measured as a function of stored inventory. This paper develops an expected utility based model that separates the risk premium from other storage incentives, and illustrates the role of the cash market... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10277 |
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| Registros recuperados: 21 | |
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