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| Lotze, Heike K.; Tittensor, Derek P.; Bryndum-buchholz, Andrea; Eddy, Tyler D.; Cheung, William W. L.; Galbraith, Eric D.; Barange, Manuel; Barrier, Nicolas; Bianchi, Daniele; Blanchard, Julia L; Bopp, Laurent; Buchner, Matthias; Bulman, Catherine M.; Carozza, David A.; Christensen, Villy; Coll, Marta; Dunne, John P.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Jennings, Simon; Jones, Miranda C.; Mackinson, Steve; Maury, Olivier; Niiranen, Susa; Oliveros-ramos, Ricardo; Roy, Tilla; Fernandes, Jose A.; Schewe, Jacob; Shin, Yunne-jai; Silva, Tiago A. M.; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Stock, Charles A.; Verley, Philippe; Volkholz, Jan; Walker, Nicola D.; Worm, Boris. |
| While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (+/- 4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (+/- 11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 degrees C of warming. Projected biomass... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Climate change impacts; Marine food webs; Global ecosystem modeling; Model intercomparison; Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2019 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00659/77125/78507.pdf |
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| Bryndum-buchholz, Andrea; Prentice, Faelan; Tittensor, Derek P.; Blanchard, Julia L.; Cheung, William W.l.; Christensen, Villy; Galbraith, Eric D.; Maury, Olivier; Lotze, Heike K.; Favaro, Brett. |
| Under climate change, species composition and abundances in high-latitude waters are expected to substantially reconfigure with consequences for trophic relationships and ecosystem services. Outcomes are challenging to project at national scales, despite their importance for management decisions. Using an ensemble of six global marine ecosystem models we analyzed marine ecosystem responses to climate change from 1971 to 2099 in Canada’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) under four standardized emissions scenarios. By 2099, under business-as-usual emissions (RCP8.5) projected marine animal biomass declined by an average of −7.7% (±29.5%) within the Canadian EEZ, dominated by declines in the Pacific (−24% ± 24.5%) and Atlantic (−25.5% ± 9.5%) areas; these were... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Climate change; Ensemble modeling; Marine ecosystem models; Canada Exclusive Economic Zone; Fish-MIP; Projection uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2020 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00613/72464/71425.pdf |
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| Schmittner, Andreas; Bostock, Helen C.; Cartapanis, Olivier; Curry, William B.; Filipsson, Helena L.; Galbraith, Eric D.; Gottschalk, Julia; Carlos Herguera, Juan; Hoogakker, Babette; Jaccard, Samuel L.; Lisiecki, Lorraine E.; Lund, David C.; Martinez-mendez, Gema; Lynch-stieglitz, Jean; Mackensen, Andreas; Michel, Elisabeth; Mix, Alan C.; Oppo, Delia W.; Peterson, Carlye D.; Repschlaeger, Janne; Sikes, Elisabeth L.; Spero, Howard J.; Waelbroeck, Claire. |
| The carbon isotope composition (C-13) of seawater provides valuable insight on ocean circulation, air-sea exchange, the biological pump, and the global carbon cycle and is reflected by the C-13 of foraminifera tests. Here more than 1700 C-13 observations of the benthic foraminifera genus Cibicides from late Holocene sediments (C-13(Cibnat)) are compiled and compared with newly updated estimates of the natural (preindustrial) water column C-13 of dissolved inorganic carbon (C-13(DICnat)) as part of the international Ocean Circulation and Carbon Cycling (OC3) project. Using selection criteria based on the spatial distance between samples, we find high correlation between C-13(Cibnat) and C-13(DICnat), confirming earlier work. Regression analyses indicate... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Carbon; Isotopes; Benthic; Foraminifera; Calibration. |
| Ano: 2017 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00661/77326/78788.pdf |
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| Galbraith, Eric D.; Kienast, Markus; Jaccard, Samuel L.; Pedersen, Thomas F.; Brunelle, Brigitte G.; Sigman, Daniel M.; Kiefer, Thorsten. |
| [1] The open subarctic Pacific is, at present, a high nitrate low chlorophyll (HNLC) region, where nitrate is perennially abundant at the surface. Theoretically, the HNLC status of this region is subject to modification by ocean circulation and/or micronutrient supply, with implications for the effectiveness of the biological pump and hence carbon sequestration in the ocean interior. Records of biogenic detritus in sediments from throughout the subarctic Pacific indicate that export production was generally lower during glacial maxima, while nitrogen isotope measurements from the Bering Sea have shown that nitrate consumption there was more complete during the last glacial period than it is today. Here, nitrogen isotopic analyses of bulk sediments (delta... |
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| Ano: 2008 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00237/34840/33281.pdf |
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| Tittensor, Derek P.; Eddy, Tyler D.; Lotze, Heike K.; Galbraith, Eric D.; Cheung, William; Barange, Manuel; Blanchard, Julia L.; Bopp, Laurent; Bryndum-buchholz, Andrea; Buechner, Matthias; Bulman, Catherine; Carozza, David A.; Christensen, Villy; Coll, Marta; Dunne, John P.; Fernandes, Jose A.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Huber, Veronika; Jennings, Simon; Jones, Miranda; Lehodey, Patrick; Link, Jason S.; Mackinson, Steve; Maury, Olivier; Niiranen, Susa; Oliveros-ramos, Ricardo; Roy, Tilla; Schewe, Jacob; Shin, Yunne-jai; Silva, Tiago; Stock, Charles A.; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Underwood, Philip J.; Volkholz, Jan; Watson, James R.; Walker, Nicola D.. |
| Model intercomparison studies in the climate and Earth sciences communities have been crucial to building credibility and coherence for future projections. They have quantified variability among models, spurred model development, contrasted within- and among-model uncertainty, assessed model fits to historical data, and provided ensemble projections of future change under specified scenarios. Given the speed and magnitude of anthropogenic change in the marine environment and the consequent effects on food security, biodiversity, marine industries, and society, the time is ripe for similar comparisons among models of fisheries and marine ecosystems. Here, we describe the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project protocol version 1.0... |
| Tipo: Text |
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| Ano: 2018 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00438/54988/75118.pdf |
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