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| Registros recuperados: 70 | |
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| Kalogeras, Nikos; Pennings, Joost M.E.; Garcia, Philip. |
| The strategic choices of Small and Medium Enterprises in the agribusiness sector are fraught with large cost and revenue uncertainties. The transition to a new production system implies that SMEs must re-allocate resources and develop new strategies to achieve market goals. We highlight the agricultural, marketing and management literature on decision-making under risk for strategic decisions. Subsequently we discuss the various elicitation techniques to measure decision-makers' utility functions. That review indicates that one is able to measure the global utility function in a reliable and valid way. Particularly the measures based on experiments and rooted in expected utility framework seem to perform well. Furthermore, we develop various research... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21354 |
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| Neff, David L.; Garcia, Philip; Hornbaker, Robert H.. |
| Recent investigations have provided mixed assessments of farm firm efficiency. This analysis examined the efficiency of a homogeneous sample of central Illinois grain farms over a six-year period. A best-practice frontier was constructed using the ray-homothetic function, which allowed optimal farm output to vary with factor intensity. Efficiency measures were found to increase with temporal aggregation. The ray-homothetic approach was found to attribute high scale inefficiencies to larger sample farms in cases where the factor shares did not vary appreciably across farms. The findings suggest that policy recommendations regarding farm efficiency must be made with care. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness. |
| Ano: 1991 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30053 |
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| Mattos, Fabio; Garcia, Philip. |
| This study investigates the relationship between cash and futures prices in the Brazilian agricultural market, focusing on the effects of trading activity on the price discovery mechanism of futures markets. The results are mixed, but several points begin to emerge. In general, higher trading activity is linked to the presence of long-run equilibrium relationships between cash and futures prices. In these cases, futures prices appear to play a more dominant role in the pricing process. In more lightly traded markets, neither long-run relationships nor short-run leads and lags can be found. Where short-run interactions exist, they are simultaneous in nature but weak. Overall, our findings suggest that the level of market activity necessary to develop... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19019 |
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| Wang, Xiaoyang; Garcia, Philip. |
| Price volatility in the corn market has changed considerably globalization and stronger linkages to the energy complex. Using data from January 1989 through December 2009, we estimate and forecast the volatility in the corn market using futures daily prices. Estimates in a Fractional Integrated GARCH framework identify the importance of long memory, seasonality, and structural change. Recursively generated forecasts for up to 40-day horizons starting in January 2005 highlight the importance of seasonality, and long memory specifications which perform well at more distant horizons particularly with rising volatility. The forecast benefits of allowing for structural change in an adaptive framework are more difficult to identify except at more distant... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Corn price volatility; Long memory; Seasonality; Structural change; Forecasting; Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2011 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103749 |
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| Mattos, Fabio; Garcia, Philip; Leuthold, Raymond M.; Hahn, Tony. |
| The purpose of this paper is to investigate the feasibility of a new futures contract for hedging wholesale transactions in the beef industry based on the USDA boxed beef cutout index (BBCO). The results suggest the live cattle futures contract is not an adequate tool to manage the price risk of wholesale meat transactions in the beef industry. However, a futures contract based on the BBCO index might provide considerably more opportunities for the hedging of wholesale meat cut prices. A pattern of improved hedging effectiveness at more distant horizons also appears to emerge for the individual cuts of meat using the conditional hedge procedures. These results may be of particular interest to members of the meat industry with longer planning horizons,... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Hedge ratio; Hedging effectiveness; Boxed-beef cutout; Wholesale beef prices; Marketing. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18986 |
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| Franken, Jason R.V.; Pennings, Joost M.E.; Garcia, Philip. |
| Researchers employ various measures of risk attitudes to investigate their relation to market behavior with mixed results. We find that a higher-order global risk attitude construct, developed using survey scales and experiments based on expected utility theory, is related to several marketing alternatives, but does not exhibit substantially greater explanatory power than underlying measures. With few exceptions, scales yield greater significance of risk attitudes for these choices, but experimental measures reveal other insights, e.g., differential attitudes in gain and loss domains. Given recent concerns with experimental measures in the literature, we suggest studies include scales as a low cost supplemental measure. |
| Tipo: Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Risk behavior; Risk attitude; Futures and options; Forward contracts; Marketing contracts; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2012 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124471 |
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| Pennings, Joost M.E.; Garcia, Philip. |
| The validity of the utility concept, particularly in an expected utility framework, has been questioned because of its inability to predict revealed behavior. In this paper we focus on the global shape of the utility function instead of the local shape of the utility function. We examine the extent of heterogeneity in the global shape of the utility function of decision makers and test whether its shape predicts strategic risk management behavior. We assess the utility functions and relate them to strategic decisions for portfolio managers (N = 104) and hog farmers (N = 239). The research design allows us to examine the robustness of our results and the extent to which the results can be generalized. Furthermore, we assess the shape of the utility... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20388 |
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| Manfredo, Mark R.; Garcia, Philip; Leuthold, Raymond M.. |
| In developing optimal hedge ratios for the soybean processing margin, many authors have illustrated the importance of considering the interactions between the cash and futures prices for soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal. Conditional as well as time-varying hedge ratios have been examined, but in the case of multiproduct time-varying hedge ratios, the difficulty in estimation has been found to often outweigh any improvement in hedging effectiveness. This research examines the hedging effectiveness of the Risk Metrics procedure for estimating a time-varying covariance matrix for developing optimal hedge ratios for the soybean processing margin. The Risk Metrics method allows for a time-varying covariance matrix while being considerably easier to... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2000 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18933 |
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| Egelkraut, Thorsten M.; Sherrick, Bruce J.; Garcia, Philip; Pennings, Joost M.E.. |
| Using survey responses of Illinois corn farmers to differently framed yield questions, we examine their subjective information by relating stated yields and risk to the corresponding objective county measures. The results show that farm-level yields can be best characterized by soliciting probabilistic information, which provides more accurate yield assessments than an open-ended frame and consistent estimates of producers subjective risk. Moreover, we find that overconfidence can be confused with differences in relevant information and that using recent data may be more appropriate in examining subjective risk statements. Our results are important for agricultural policy-makers and researchers, particularly those who work with surveys that include... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18991 |
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| Garcia, Philip; Adam, Brian D.; Hauser, Robert J.. |
| This study provides additional evidence of the usefulness of mean-variance procedures in the presence of options which can truncate and skew the returns distribution. Using a simulation analysis, price hedging decisions are examined for hog producers when options are available. Mean-variance results are contrasted with optimal decisions based on negative exponential and Cox-Rubinstein utility functions over 56 ending price scenarios and two levels of risk aversion. The findings from our simulation, which considers discrete contracts, basis risk, lognormality in prices, transactions costs, and alternative utility specifications, affirm the usefulness of mean-variance framework. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 1994 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31230 |
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| Irwin, Scott H.; Garcia, Philip; Good, Darrel L.. |
| Three attributes of futures contract behavior important for market performanceliquidity, volatility, and convergenceare investigated before and after the 2005 increase in speculative position limits for corn, soybean, and wheat contracts at the Chicago Board of Trade. The analysis of liquidity and market depth reveals a sharp increase in open interest for corn, soybeans and wheat beginning in late 2005. The increase in position limits likely accommodated the increase in speculative interest in corn, soybean and wheat futures, but some of the increase would have occurred without the increase as new market participants received hedge exemptions. The analysis of price volatility revealed no large change in measures of volatility after the change in... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Corn; Futures contract; Performance; Soybeans; Speculation; Wheat; Marketing. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9951 |
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| Frank, Julieta; Garcia, Philip. |
| Recent research has provided mixed results regarding the presence of a time-varying risk premium in agricultural futures markets. In this paper we test for the presence of a time-varying risk premium and market efficiency focusing on the properties of the underlying data. Specifically, we examine the same markets and period used by McKenzie and Holt (2002) and extend the analysis through 2004. Our results show that accounting for the structural break in the early seventies plays a key role in the findings. In contrast to McKenzie and Holt, we find no evidence of time-varying risk premium in the four commodities analyzed. The corn market appears to be (weak form) efficient. Hogs, live cattle, and soybean meal futures contracts show evidence of inefficiency,... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19051 |
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| Egelkraut, Thorsten M.; Garcia, Philip; Pennings, Joost M.E.; Sherrick, Bruce J.. |
| Using survey data from 258 Illinois corn farmers, we investigate the relationship between subjective and objective yield measures and their effect on the use of crop insurance. Our findings show that producers view themselves as better than average with respect to yields and in terms of their variability, and that over- and underconfidence also influence their use of crop insurance. The effects are not symmetric, overconfidence is primarily reflected in the larger-than-average yield, while underconfidence emerges mainly in the larger-than-average variability. Crop insurance use is further affected by risk preferences and county yield variability. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21369 |
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| Egelkraut, Thorsten M.; Garcia, Philip. |
| Options with different maturities can be used to generate an implied forward volatility, a volatility forecast for non-overlapping future time intervals. Using five commodities with varying characteristics, we find that the implied forward volatility dominates forecasts based on historical volatility information, but that the predictive accuracy is affected by the commodity's characteristics. Unbiased and efficient corn and soybeans market forecasts are attributable to the well-established volatility during crucial growing periods. For soybean meal, wheat, and hogs volatility is less predictable, and investors appear to demand a risk premium for bearing volatility risk. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19033 |
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| Egelkraut, Thorsten M.; Garcia, Philip; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.. |
| Using 1971-2000 data, we examine the accuracy of corn and soybean production forecasts provided by the USDA and two private services. All agencies improved their forecasts as the harvest progressed, and forecast errors across the agencies were highly correlated. Relative accuracy varied by crop and month. In corn, USDA 's forecasts ranked as most accurate in all periods except in August during recent times, and improved more markedly as harvest progressed. In soybeans, forecast errors were very similar with the private agencies ranking as most accurate in August and September and making largest relative improvements in August during recent times. The USDA provided the most accurate October and November forecasts. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2002 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19068 |
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| Registros recuperados: 70 | |
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