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| Registros recuperados: 70 | |
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| Kim, MinKyoung; Leuthold, Raymond M.; Garcia, Philip. |
| This study contributes to understanding price risk management through hedging strategies in a forecasting context. A relatively new forecasting method, nonparametric local polynomial kernel (LPK), is used and applied to the hog sector. The selective multiproduct hedge based on the LPK price and hedge ratio forecasts is, in general, found to be better than continuous hedge and alternative forecasting procedures in terms of reduction of variance of unhedged return. The findings indicate that combining hedging with forecasts, especially when using the LPK technique, can potentially improve price risk management. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2001 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18966 |
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| Mattos, Fabio; Garcia, Philip; Pennings, Joost M.E.. |
| This paper investigates the dynamics of sequential decision-making in agricultural futures and options markets. Analysis of trading records of 12 traders identified considerable heterogeneity in individual dynamic trading behavior. Using risk measures derived from the deltas and vegas of trader’s portfolios, we find nearly half the traders behavior is consistent with a house-money effect and the other half with loss aversion. These findings correspond closely to expected behavior inferred from elicited utility and probability weighting functions. The results call into question more aggregate findings that discount probability weighting to develop risk measures which support the notion of more uniform, less heterogeneous, behavior. Understanding behavior in... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Loss aversion; House-money effect; Futures; Options; Agricultural Finance. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37605 |
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| Franken, Jason R.V.; Pennings, Joost M.E.; Garcia, Philip. |
| Researchers employ various measures of risk attitudes to investigate their relation to market behavior with mixed results. We find that a higher-order global risk attitude construct, developed using survey scales and experiments based on expected utility theory, is related to several marketing alternatives, but does not exhibit substantially greater explanatory power than underlying measures. With few exceptions, scales yield greater significance of risk attitudes for these choices, but experimental measures reveal other insights, e.g., differential attitudes in gain and loss domains. Given recent concerns with experimental measures in the literature, we suggest studies include scales as a low cost supplemental measure. |
| Tipo: Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Risk behavior; Risk attitude; Futures and options; Forward contracts; Marketing contracts; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2012 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124471 |
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| Dixon, Bruce L.; Hollinger, Steven E.; Garcia, Philip; Tirupattur, Viswanath. |
| Projections of the impacts of climate change on agriculture require flexible and accurate yield response models. Typically, estimated yield response models have used fixed calendar intervals to measure weather variables and omitted observations on solar radiation, an essential determinant of crop yield. A corn yield response model for Illinois crop reporting districts is estimated using field data. Weather variables are time to crop growth stages to allow use of the model if climate change shifts dates of the crop growing season. Solar radiation is included. Results show this model is superior to conventionally specified models in explaining yield variation in Illinois corn. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 1994 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31229 |
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| Neff, David L.; Garcia, Philip; Hornbaker, Robert H.. |
| Recent investigations have provided mixed assessments of farm firm efficiency. This analysis examined the efficiency of a homogeneous sample of central Illinois grain farms over a six-year period. A best-practice frontier was constructed using the ray-homothetic function, which allowed optimal farm output to vary with factor intensity. Efficiency measures were found to increase with temporal aggregation. The ray-homothetic approach was found to attribute high scale inefficiencies to larger sample farms in cases where the factor shares did not vary appreciably across farms. The findings suggest that policy recommendations regarding farm efficiency must be made with care. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness. |
| Ano: 1991 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30053 |
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| Pennings, Joost M.E.; Garcia, Philip. |
| Financial research indicates that several firm characteristics are related to the use of derivatives. Less attention has been paid to the role of the characteristics of managers, which are particularly important when studying derivative usage of small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs). In this paper we focus on the influence of manager's level of education, the manager's decision-making unit, and the fundamental determinants of risk management - managerial risk attitude and managerial risk perception - on SMEs' commodity derivative usage. In empirical studies to date, the heterogeneity of derivative users has been neglected. We propose a generalized mixture regression model that estimates the relationship between commodity derivative usage and a set of... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2001 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18955 |
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| Franken, Jason R.V.; Garcia, Philip; Irwin, Scott H.. |
| The storage at a loss paradox of positive inventories despite inadequate spot-futures price spread coverage of storage costs is an unresolved issue of long-standing interest to economists. Alternative explanations include risk premiums for futures market speculators, convenience yields from having inventories on hand, and the mismeasurement/aggregation of data. T-test analyses of disaggregated data suggest soybean price behavior consistent with intertemporal arbitrage conditions and corn price behavior that may imply convenience yields. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19005 |
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| Pennings, Joost M.E.; Garcia, Philip; Irwin, Scott H.. |
| Heterogeneity, i.e., the notion that individuals respond differently to economic stimuli, can have profound consequences for the interpretation of behavior and the formulation of agricultural policy. This paper compares and evaluates three grouping techniques that can be used to account for heterogeneity in financial behavior. Two are well established: company-type grouping and cluster analysis. A third, the generalized mixture regression model, has recently been developed and is worth considering as market participants are grouped such that their response to the determinants of economic behavior is similar. We evaluate the grouping methods in a hedging framework by assessing their ability to reflect relationships consistent with theory. The empirical... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Economic behavior; Heterogeneity; Hedging; Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; A10; B40; C1; D0; G0; L2; Q13. |
| Ano: 2011 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114787 |
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| Mattos, Fabio; Garcia, Philip; Leuthold, Raymond M.; Hahn, Tony. |
| The purpose of this paper is to investigate the feasibility of a new futures contract for hedging wholesale transactions in the beef industry based on the USDA boxed beef cutout index (BBCO). The results suggest the live cattle futures contract is not an adequate tool to manage the price risk of wholesale meat transactions in the beef industry. However, a futures contract based on the BBCO index might provide considerably more opportunities for the hedging of wholesale meat cut prices. A pattern of improved hedging effectiveness at more distant horizons also appears to emerge for the individual cuts of meat using the conditional hedge procedures. These results may be of particular interest to members of the meat industry with longer planning horizons,... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Hedge ratio; Hedging effectiveness; Boxed-beef cutout; Wholesale beef prices; Marketing. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18986 |
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| Mattos, Fabio; Garcia, Philip. |
| This study investigates the relationship between cash and futures prices in the Brazilian agricultural market, focusing on the effects of trading activity on the price discovery mechanism of futures markets. The results are mixed, but several points begin to emerge. In general, higher trading activity is linked to the presence of long-run equilibrium relationships between cash and futures prices. In these cases, futures prices appear to play a more dominant role in the pricing process. In more lightly traded markets, neither long-run relationships nor short-run leads and lags can be found. Where short-run interactions exist, they are simultaneous in nature but weak. Overall, our findings suggest that the level of market activity necessary to develop... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19019 |
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| Egelkraut, Thorsten M.; Garcia, Philip. |
| Options with different maturities can be used to generate an implied forward volatility, a volatility forecast for non-overlapping future time intervals. Using five commodities with varying characteristics, we find that the implied forward volatility dominates forecasts based on historical volatility information, but that the predictive accuracy is affected by the commodity's characteristics. Unbiased and efficient corn and soybeans market forecasts are attributable to the well-established volatility during crucial growing periods. For soybean meal, wheat, and hogs volatility is less predictable, and investors appear to demand a risk premium for bearing volatility risk. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19033 |
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| Zapata, Hector O.; Hudson, Michael A.; Garcia, Philip. |
| A Monte Carlo investigation is used to examine the performance of two commonly used tests for Granger causality for univariate and bivariate nonstationary ARMA (p,q) processes. Tests are applied to raw data, first differences of the raw data, and detrended versions of the series. The results indicate that for independent series the tests are robust regardless of sample size. With bivariate series and nonstationarity, the tests results are sensitive to the ARMA specification, whether the data are filtered and the type of filter used, and the sample size. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods. |
| Ano: 1988 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32108 |
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| Frank, Julieta; Garcia, Philip. |
| Liquidity costs in futures markets are not observed directly because bids and offers occur in an open outcry pit and are not recorded. Traditional estimation of these costs has focused on bidask spreads using transaction prices. However, the bid-ask spread only captures the tightness of the market price. As the volume increases measures of market depth which identify how the order flow moves prices become important information. We estimate market depth for lean hogs and live cattle markets using a Bayesian MCMC method to estimate unobserved data. While the markets are highly liquid, our results show that cost- and risk-reducing strategies may exist. Liquidity costs are highest when larger volumes are traded at distant contracts. For hogs the market becomes... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Bayesian MCMC; Lean hog futures; Liquidity cost; Live cattle futures; Market depth; Market microstructure; Agricultural Finance. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37613 |
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| Registros recuperados: 70 | |
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