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| Registros recuperados: 77 | |
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| Jirik, Mark A.; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Jackson, Thomas E.; Jirik, Mark A.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes. |
| The purpose of this research report is to present an evaluation of advisory service pricing performance from 1995 through 1998 for wheat. The average net advisory price across all 24 wheat programs in 1995 is $3.79 per bushel, $0.18 above the market benchmark price. The range in 1995 is $3.01 to $4.71 per bushel. The average net advisory service price for 23 wheat programs in 1996 is $3.82 per bushel, $0.13 below the market benchmark. The range in 1996 is $2.74 to $4.94 per bushel. The average net advisory price for all 20 wheat programs in 1997 is $2.64 per bushel, $0.58 below the market benchmark. The range in 1997 is $1.34 to $3.90 per bushel. Finally, the average net advisory price across all 21 services in 1998 is $2.36 per bushel, $0.54 below... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2000 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14777 |
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| Webber, Rick L.; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes. |
| The purpose of this paper is to investigate the pricing performance of agricultural market advisory services in hogs. Pricing recommendations are available for all quarters from the beginning of 1995 through the end of 2001. The results show that average differences between advisory programs and market benchmarks are small in nominal terms for all three benchmarks, -$0.41/bu., $O.OO/cwt. and $-0.27/cwt. versus the cash, index and empirical benchmarks, respectively, and none of the average differences are significantly different from zero. Hence, advisory programs as a group do not outperform the market benchmarks in terms of average price. Advisory programs also do not outperform the market benchmarks in terms of average price and risk. Finally, there is... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18980 |
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| Isengildina, Olga; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.. |
| This study investigates the nature of the revision process of USDA corn and soybean production forecasts over the 1970/71 through 2002/03 marketing years. Nordhaus' framework for testing the efficiency of fixed-event forecasts is used. In this framework, efficiency is based on independence of forecast revisions. Both parametric and non-parametric tests reject independence of consecutive forecast revisions. Positive correlation and consistency of directional changes in forecast revisions suggest that these forecasts are "smoothed." Estimates of the impact of smoothing on forecast accuracy show that correction for smoothing may result in economically meaningful improvements in accuracy. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19027 |
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| Isengildina, Olga; Pennings, Joost M.E.; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.. |
| This study sought to examine the nature of farmers’ use of market advisory services based on the results of a survey of US crop producers. The survey revealed that market advisory service users tend to be significantly more risk seeking than non-users. Survey results indicated a large range in patterns of use of advisory services. Most farmers use advisory services to the greatest extent for marketing information, market analysis, and to keep up with markets. General guidelines (market strategies and price information) are utilized more than specific advice (e.g., specific pricing decisions, price forecasts). Only 11% of farmers reported that they closely follow the marketing recommendations provided by advisory services. Nonetheless, farmers report that... |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37489 |
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| Irwin, Scott H.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes; Good, Darrel L.. |
| The purpose of this research report is to evaluate the pricing performance of market advisory services for the 1995-2001 corn and soybean crops. The results for 1995-2000 were released in earlier AgMAS research reports, while results for the 2001 crop year are new. Certain explicit assumptions are made to produce a consistent and comparable set of results across the different advisory programs. These assumptions are intended to accurately depict "real-world" marketing conditions facing a representative central Illinois corn and soybean farmer. Several key assumptions are: i) with a few exceptions, the marketing window for a crop year runs from September before harvest through August after harvest, ii) on-farm or commercial physical storage costs, as... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14773 |
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| Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes; Batts, Ryan M.. |
| The purpose of this research report is to summarize the pricing performance of professional market advisory services for the 1995-2004 corn and soybean crops. On average, the results show that the frequency of advisory programs pricing in the top-third of the corn price range over 1995-2004 is modest, between 17 and 25%. By far the largest average frequency occurs in the middle third of the corn price range, ranging from 58 to 63%. Price range results for soybeans are similar to the results for corn. Average differences between 50/50 advisory revenue and benchmarks range from 5 to $7 per acre for market benchmarks and 8 to $12 per acre for farmer benchmarks. The average advisory return relative to the farmer benchmarks is about three percent of average... |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37456 |
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| Pennings, Joost M.E.; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.. |
| In an effort to improve marketing of their products, many farmers use market advisory services (MAS). To date, there is only fragmented anecdotal information about how farmers actually use the recommendations of market advisory services in their marketing plans, and how they choose among these services. Based on the literature on consulting services usage, a conceptual framework is developed in which perceived performance of the MAS regarding realized crop price and risk reduction, and the match between the MAS and the farmer's marketing philosophy drive MAS usage. To account for possible heterogeneity among farmers regarding to the use of MAS, we introduce a mixture-modeling framework that is able to identify unobserved heterogeneity. With this modeling... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2001 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18950 |
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| Good, Darrel L.; Irwin, Scott H.; Jackson, Thomas E.. |
| The purpose of this research report is to identify the appropriate market benchmark price to use to evaluate the pricing performance of market advisory services that are included in the annual AgMAS pricing performance evaluations. Five desirable properties of market benchmark prices are identified. Three potential specifications of the market benchmark price are considered: the average price received by Illinois farmers, the harvest cash price, and the average cash price over a two-year crop marketing window. The average cash price meets all of the desired properties, except that it would not be easily implementable by producers. It can be shown, though, that the price realized via a more manageable strategy of "spreading" sales during the marketing... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Advisory services; Evaluating the pricing performance; Market benchmark price; C8; C0; D4; D8; L1; M3; Q0; Z0; Marketing. |
| Ano: 1998 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14783 |
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| Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Gomez, Jennifer K.. |
| The economic value of public situation and outlook information has long been a subject of debate. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the economic value of USDA WASDE reports in corn and soybean markets. The investigation is based on event study analysis, with the "events" consisting of the release of all monthly USDA WASDE reports for corn and soybeans from 1985 through 1998. The WASDE reports during the sample period are divided into two groups: one that represents "pure" outlook information and one that represents a "mix" of situation and outlook information. The statistical tests can be placed into two categories: mean price reaction and volatility reaction. Overall, the results suggest that USDA outlook information has a significant impact in... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Marketing. |
| Ano: 2001 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18948 |
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| Good, Darrel L.; Irwin, Scott H.; Isengildina, Olga. |
| This study investigates the impact of six major USDA reports in hog and cattle markets: Cattle; Cattle on Feed; Cold Storage; Hogs and Pigs; Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook (LDPO); and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). A TARCH-in-mean model, with dummy variables to measure the impact of USDA reports and other external factors, is used to model close-to-open live-lean hog and live cattle futures returns from January 1985 through December 2004. The analysis revealed a statistically significant impact of all but Cattle and Cold Storage reports in live/lean hog futures, and all but Cold Storage reports in live cattle futures. Hogs and Pigs reports had the highest impact on live/lean hog returns by increasing conditional standard... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Cattle; Event study; Hogs; Livestock; Public information; TARCH model; USDA reports; Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8614 |
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| Colino, Evelyn V.; Cabrini, Silvina M.; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Joao, Martines-Filho. |
| This report presents marketing profiles and loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain profiles for the advisory services followed by the AgMAS Project for the 2001 soybean crop. Marketing profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative net amount priced under each program’s set of recommendations throughout the crop year. Loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain (LDP/MLG) profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative percentage of the crop on which the LDP/MLG was claimed during the crop year. Marketing profiles provide information to evaluate the style of advisory services in several ways. The percentage of crop priced is a measure of within-crop year price risk. The higher the proportion of a crop priced, the lower the sensitivity of the... |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Financial Economics. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37507 |
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| Colino, Evelyn V.; Cabrini, Silvina M.; Aulerich, Nicole M.; Brandenberger, Tracy L.; Merrin, Robert P.; Shi, Wei; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes. |
| This report presents marketing profiles and loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain profiles for the advisory services followed by the AgMAS Project for the 2002, 2003 and 2004 soybean crops. Marketing profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative net amount priced under each program’s set of recommendations throughout the crop year. Loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain (LDP/MLG) profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative percentage of the crop on which the LDP/MLG was claimed during the crop year. Marketing profiles provide information to evaluate the style of advisory services in several ways. The percentage of crop priced is a measure of within-crop year price risk. The higher the proportion of a crop priced, the lower the... |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37485 |
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| Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes; Good, Darrel L.; Irwin, Scott H.. |
| The purpose of this research report is to present an evaluation of advisory service pricing performance in the 1999 crop year for wheat. Specifically, the average price received by a subscriber to an advisory service is calculated for wheat crop harvested in 1999. The average net advisory price across all 23 wheat programs in 1999 is $2.64 per bushel, $0.04 below the market benchmark price. The range of net advisory prices is substantial, with a minimum of $2.18 per bushel and a maximum of $3.38 per bushel. The average revenue achieved by following an advisory service is $163 per acre, $3.00 less than the market benchmark revenue. The spread in advisory revenue also is noteworthy, with the difference between the bottom- and top-performing advisory... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2001 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14788 |
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| Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Jackson, Thomas E.. |
| The purpose of this paper is to investigate the pricing performance and behavior of market advisory services in corn and soybeans. Data on corn and soybean net price received for advisory services, as reported by the AgMAS Project, are available for the 1995, 1996 and 1997 marketing years. Performance test results suggest that, on average, market advisory services exhibit a small ability to "beat the market". This conclusion is somewhat sensitive to the type of performance test and market benchmark considered. The predictability results provide little evidence that future advisory service pricing performance can be predicted from past performance. Marketing profiles identify three marketing "styles": i) "scale-up" sales, ii) selective hedging and... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness. |
| Ano: 2000 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19579 |
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| Isengildina, Olga; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.. |
| This study examines whether market participants anticipate the predictable component in USDA revisions of corn and soybean production forecasts during 1970/71 through 2003/04 marketing years. The analysis revealed that markets consistently under-predicted October corn production revisions and over-predicted September soybean production revisions. These biases may be attributable to inefficient use of information about smoothing in USDA revisions. In all other cases market analysts seemed to be aware of USDA smoothing practices and generally efficiently incorporated this information into their own forecasts. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20145 |
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| Registros recuperados: 77 | |
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