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| Registros recuperados: 81 | |
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| Schnepf, Randall D.; Goodwin, Barry K.. |
| The last three years have realized significant structural changes in the U.S. agricultural policy environment. These changes include nearly complete planting flexibility and the elimination of target-price-based income support for agricultural producers. Many have questioned the extent to which such policy changes may influence the variability of agricultural prices. This analysis uses price series dating from 1944 to develop a multivariate framework to evaluate the long-run (inter-season) determinants of endogenous variability for the prices of corn, wheat, and soybeans. An annual measure of price variability is calculated from monthly spot market cash prices for each of the three commodities. The generalized method of moments estimation technique is... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis. |
| Ano: 1999 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21687 |
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| Smith, Vincent H.; Goodwin, Barry K.. |
| Recent research has questioned the extent to which government policies, including conservation and risk management programs, have influenced environmental indicators. The impacts of income-supporting and risk management programs on soil erosion are considered. An econometric model of the determinants of soil erosion, program participation, conservation effort, and input usage is estimated. While the Conservation Reserve Program has reduced erosion an average of 1.02 tons per acre from 1982 to 1992, approximately half of this reduction has been offset by increased erosion resulting from government programs other than federally subsidized crop insurance. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Conservation Reserve Program; Farm policy; Soil erosion; Agricultural and Food Policy. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31090 |
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| Belasco, Eric J.; Taylor, Mykel R.; Goodwin, Barry K.; Schroeder, Ted C.. |
| Cattle feeding enterprises operate amid variability originating in prices and production. This research explicitly models yield risks related to cattle feeding by relating the mean and variance of yield performance factors to observable conditioning variables. The results demonstrate that pen characteristics, such as entry weight, gender, placement season, and location influence the mean and variability of yield factors, defined as dry matter feed conversion, average daily gain, mortality, and animal health costs. Ex ante profit distributions, conditional on cattle placement characteristics, are derived through simulation methods to evaluate the effects of price or yield shocks on the distributional characteristics of expected profits. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Conditional variance; Production risk; Cattle feeding; Yields; Agribusiness; Livestock Production/Industries; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty; D24; D81; Q12. |
| Ano: 2009 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48761 |
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| Goodwin, Barry K.; Smith, Vincent H.. |
| Dynamic relationships between three classes of wheat are investigated using threshold VAR models incorporating the effects of protein availability. Changes in the stock of protein are found to generate significant impulse responses in the price of hard spring red wheat and hard red winter wheat but not soft red wheat. These impulse responses to identical changes in protein stocks are larger when the absolute deviations of protein stocks from normal levels are large. Shocks to the prices of individual classes of wheat result in complex impulse responses in the prices of the other wheats. Notably, however, a shock to the price of hard red winter wheat appears to result in little or no impluse response in the price of hard spring wheat, though, importantly,... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29156 |
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| Belasco, Eric J.; Goodwin, Barry K.; Ghosh, Sujit K.. |
| The purpose of this study is to evaluate the risks faced by fed cattle producers. With the development of livestock insurance programs as part of the Agricultural Risk Protection Act of 2000, a thorough investigation into the probabilistic measures of individual risk factors is needed. This research jointly models cattle production yield risk factors, using a multivariate dynamic regression model. A multivariate framework is necessary to characterize yield risk in terms of four yield factors (dry matter feed conversion, averaged daily gain, mortality, and veterinary costs), which are highly correlated. Additionally, a conditional Tobit model is used to handle censored yield variables (e.g., mortality). The proposed econometric model estimates... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9382 |
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| Serra, Teresa; Zilberman, David; Goodwin, Barry K.; Hyvonen, Keijo. |
| The objective of this research is to determine the contribution of recent agricultural policy reforms in the E.U. on the use of crop protection products. Specifically, we concentrate on the 1992 CAP reforms. Our theoretical model adopts the multi-output generalization of the Lichtenberg-Zilberman damage control technology model developed by Chambers and Lichtenberg. In the empirical application, farm-level data for a sample of French farms are utilized. Results suggest that price effects on the usage of crop protection products are always more elastic than the compensatory payment effects. This result indicates that a policy reform consisting of a reduction in price-support measures in favor of direct payments to farmers, such as the 1992 CAP reform,... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20043 |
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| Zhu, Ying; Goodwin, Barry K.; Ghosh, Sujit K.. |
| The objective of this study is to evaluate and model the yield risk associated with major agricultural commodities in the U.S. We are particularly concerned with the nonstationary nature of the yield distribution, which primarily arises because of technological progress and changing environmental conditions. Precise risk assessment depends on the accuracy of modeling this distribution. This problem becomes more challenging as the yield distribution changes over time, a condition that holds for nearly all major crops. A common approach to this problem is based on a two-stage method in which the yield is first detrended and then the estimated residuals are treated as observed data and modeled using various parametric or nonparametric methods. We propose an... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Crop Insurance; Model Comparison; Time-Varying Distribution; Financial Economics. |
| Ano: 2011 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/102048 |
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| Goodwin, Barry K.; Harper, Daniel C.; Schnepf, Randall D.. |
| Fats and oils play a prominent role in U.S. dietary patterns. Recent concerns over the negative health consequences associated with fats and oils have led many to suspect structural change in demand conditions. Our analysis considers short run (monthly) demand relationships for edible fats and oils. In that monthly quantities of fats and oils are likely to be relatively fixed, an inverse almost ideal demand system specification is used. A smooth transition function is used to model a switching inverse almost ideal demand system that assesses short-run demand conditions for edible fats and oils in the United States. The results suggest that short-run demand conditions for fats and oils experienced a gradual structural shift that began in the late 1980s... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Fats and oils; Inverse demand system; Structural change; Q0; D1. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37858 |
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| Ozaki, Vitor Augusto; Ghosh, Sujit K.; Goodwin, Barry K.; Shirota, Ricardo. |
| This article focuses on the modeling of agricultural yield data using hierarchical Bayesian models. In recovering the generating process of these data, we consider the temporal, spatial and spatio-temporal relationships pertinent to the prediction and pricing of insurance contracts based on regional crop yields. A county-average yield data set was analyzed for the State of Paraná, Brazil for the period of 1990 through 2002. The choice of the best model from among the several non-nested models considered was based on the posterior predictive criterion. The methodology used in this article proposes improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19142 |
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| Tejeda, Hernan A.; Goodwin, Barry K.. |
| This paper determines the dynamic interaction between prices of corn, soybean, grain sorghum (milo), wheat, feeder cattle and live (fed) cattle by taking into account the surge in corn consumption stemming from the boost of mandated ethanol production. Corn is a major carbohydrate-feed component of livestock, with grain sorghum and wheat serving as close substitutes. Moreover, soybean is an important protein-feed component. Being non-stationary data, a vector autoregressive (VAR) model (Sims, 1980) that includes an ‘error correction’ term is applied to the series; likewise known as a vector error correction (VEC) model (Engel and Granger, 1987 and Johansen, 1989). Two separate periods are estimated. The first considers prices prior to recent ethanol... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Corn Prices; Ethanol; Cattle Feed Price Dynamics; Agribusiness; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2011 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103825 |
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| Goodwin, Barry K.. |
| This article reviews actuarial procedures used to calculate premium rates in the federal crop insurance program. Average yields are used as an important indicator of risk under current rating practices. The strength and validity of this relationship is examined using historical yield data drawn from a large sample of Kansas farms. The results indicate that assumed relationships between average yields and yield variation are tenuous and imply that rating procedures that rely on average yields may induce adverse selection. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 1994 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30747 |
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| Registros recuperados: 81 | |
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