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| Registros recuperados: 81 | |
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| Goodwin, Barry K.. |
| Recent empirical research and development in the cattle industry suggest several reasons to suspect structural change in economic relationships determining cattle prices. Standard forecasting models may ignore structural change and may produce biased and misleading forecasts. Vector autoregressive (VAR) models that allow parameters to vary with time are used to forecast quarterly cattle prices. The VAR procedures are flexible in that they allow the identification of structural change that begins at an a priori unknown point and occurs gradually. The results indicate that the lowest RMSE for out-of-sample forecasts of cattle prices is obtained using a gradually switching VAR model. However, differences between the gradually switching VAR model and a... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis. |
| Ano: 1992 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29632 |
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| Kastens, Terry L.; Goodwin, Barry K.. |
| This study evaluates the attitudes of U.S. (Kansas) farmers regarding "free-trade" and "free-market" policy environments. In contrast to earlier studies, non-specific policy attitudes are evaluated. A direct measure of farm program benefits is also included. Attitudes vary significantly with farm and operator characteristics. Support for free trade was shown to decrease with education and experience, to increase for farms with relatively more rented land, and to increase as total farm wealth increased. Support for free-trade was also higher for crop farms. Farms receiving more government payments are less likely to favor a free-trade policy environment. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural policy; Producer attitudes; International trade; International Relations/Trade. |
| Ano: 1994 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15186 |
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| Goodwin, Barry K.; Roberts, Matthew C.; Coble, Keith H.. |
| A variety of crop revenue insurance programs have recently been introduced. A critical component of revenue insurance contracts is quantifying the risk associated with stochastic prices. Forward-looking, market-based measures of price risk which are often available in form of options premia are preferable. Because such measures are not available for every crop, some current revenue insurance programs alternatively utilize historical price data to construct measures of price risk. This study evaluates the distributional implications of alternative methods for estimating price risk and deriving insurance premium rates. A variety of specification tests are employed to evaluate distributional assumptions. Conditional heteroskedasticity models are used to... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2000 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30830 |
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| Serra, Teresa; Goodwin, Barry K.. |
| Asymmetric threshold error correction models are used to analyze price relationships and patterns of transmission among farm and retail markets for a variety of dairy products in Spain. Our empirical analysis is conducted using both weekly and monthly price data. Our results suggest that the transmission of shocks is largely unidirectional, running from the farm to retail levels. Formal tests confirm asymmetries, though our results suggest that the effects of these asymmetries are modest. Implications for the organizational structure of Spanish dairy markets are offered. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2002 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19622 |
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| Goodwin, Barry K.; Vandeveer, Monte; Deal, John. |
| The extent to which crop insurance programs have resulted in additional land being brought into production has been a topic of considerable debate. We extend a multi-equation structural model of crop acreage response, insurance participation, CRP enrollment, and input usage developed in Goodwin and Vandeveer (2000) to wheat and barley production in the "Northern Great Plains" region. We also update earlier results for corn and soybean production in the "Heartland" region. Our results confirm earlier findings that increased participation in insurance programs provoke a statistically significant acreage response. This response is, however, relatively modest. We find that cross-the-board decreases of 50% in insurance premiums significantly increase... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2001 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20579 |
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| Espinosa, Juan Andres; Goodwin, Barry K.. |
| A hedonic price model is applied to a cross-sectional time-series data set of Kansas wheat characteristics. Results indicate that prices received by wheat producers reflect the presence of conventional quality characteristics of wheat and also milling and dough characteristics. Furthermore, the results indicate that the alternative sets of characteristics exhibit quality information that is, to some degree, independent of one another. Important conclusions regarding the efficiency of current grading and pricing practices for wheat are drawn from this analysis. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 1991 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32620 |
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| Vado, Ligia; Goodwin, Barry K.. |
| Favorable weather and the adoption of Genetically Modified (GM) corn hybrids are often argued to be factors that explain recent corn yield increases and risk reduction in the U.S. Corn Belt. The focus of this analysis is to determine whether favorable weather is the main factor explaining increased and more stable yields or if biotechnology adoption is the more relevant driving force. The hypothesis that recent biotechnology advances have increased yields and reduced risks by making corn more resistant to pests, pesticides, and/or drought is tested. Fixed effects models of yields and crop insurance losses as functions of weather variables and genetically modified corn adoption rates are estimated taking into account the non-linear agronomic response of... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management. |
| Ano: 2010 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61594 |
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| Goodwin, Barry K.; Smith, Vincent H.. |
| Dynamic relationships among three classes of wheat are investigated using threshold VAR models that incorporate the effects of protein availability. Changes in the stock of protein are found to generate significant responses in the prices of hard red spring wheat and hard red winter wheat, but not soft red wheat. The responses to identical changes in protein stocks are larger when the magnitudes of deviations of protein stocks from normal levels are large. Shocks to the prices of individual classes of wheat result in complex responses in the prices of the other wheat classes. Notably, however, a shock to the price of hard red winter wheat appears to result in little or no response in the price of hard spring wheat, though importantly, the opposite is not... |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Protein; Thresholds; Vector autoregressions; Wheat prices; Crop Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2009 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54544 |
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| Registros recuperados: 81 | |
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