|
|
|
|
|
| Marshall, Graham R.; Parton, Kevin A.; Hammer, G.L.. |
| The value of a seasonal forecasting system based on phases of the Southern Oscillation was estimated for a representative dryland wheat grower in the vicinity of Goondiwindi. In particular the effects on this estimate of risk attitude and planting conditions were examined. A recursive stochastic programming approach was used to identify the grower's utility-maximising action set in the event of each of the climate patterns over the period 1894-1991 recurring in the imminent season. The approach was repeated with and without use of the forecasts. The choices examined were, at planting, nitrogen application rate and cultivar and, later in the season, choices of proceeding with or abandoning each wheat activity. The value of the forecasting system was... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 1996 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22368 |
| |
|
|
| Whan, Ian F.; Hammer, G.L.. |
| This paper develops a methodology for estimating the costs of delay of harvesting wheat and demonstrates the approach using data for Southern Queensland. Costs associated with delay in harvesting wheat stem from quality downgrading after rain on the mature crop, yield loss due to ageing and labour costs related to the delay period itself. The most difficult of these costs to predict is loss due to quality downgrading. This loss is hypothesized to depend on the probability of various rain related events given a range of harvest starting dates and harvest durations. A probability analysis was used to relate rainfall events and loss so that expected delay costs, given a range of harvesting durations and starting dates, could be specified. The variability of... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 1985 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12438 |
| |
|
|
|
