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| Hegrenes, Agnar; Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard; Lien, Gudbrand D.. |
| A model is presented to investigate the optimal economic life cycle of grass leys with winter damage problems in northern Norway and to determine the threshold of winter damage before it is profitable to re-seed. A two-level hierarchic Markov process has been constructed using the MLHMP software. The model takes uncertainty concerning yield potential, damage estimation and weather dependent random fluctuations into account. A Kalman filter technique is used for updating of knowledge on yield potential and damage level. The application of the model is demonstrated using data from two commercial Norwegian farms. Since parameter estimates vary considerably among farms, it is concluded that decision support concerning optimal economic life cycle of grass leys... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25848 |
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| Hegrenes, Agnar; Lien, Gudbrand D.; Hardaker, J. Brian. |
| The optimal economic life cycle of grass leys with winter damage problems in northern Norway and the threshold of winter damage before it is profitable to re-seed grasses are investigated. The loss in profit of a sub-optimal strategy compared to an optimal strategy is briefly discussed. An infinite horizon stochastic dynamic programming model including a normally distributed yield process with possibilities for discrete downward jumps is developed. The jump process reflects the sudden drop in production after winter damage. Normally the yield of ley increases the first few years after a year with downward jump, and this dynamic is included in the model. The transition probabilities used in the model are estimated with Monte Carlo simulation. Our result... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Farm Management. |
| Ano: 2002 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6945 |
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