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Targeting the poor and smallholder farmers: empirical evidence from Malawi AgEcon
Houssou, Nazaire; Zeller, Manfred.
This paper develops low cost, reasonably accurate, and simple models for improving the targeting efficiency of development policies in Malawi. Using a stepwise logistic regression (weighted) along with other techniques applied in credit scoring, the research identifies a set of easily observable and verifiable indicators for correctly predicting whether a household is poor or not, based on the 2004-05 Malawi Integrated Household Survey data. The predictive power of the models is assessed using out-of-sample validation tests and receiver operating characteristic curves, whereas the model’s robustness is evaluated by bootstrap simulation methods. Finally, sensitivity analyses are performed using the international and extreme poverty lines. The models...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Malawi; Poverty targeting; Proxy means tests; Out-of-sample tests; Bootstrap; Food Security and Poverty; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; I32; C15.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/57988
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To Target or Not to Target? The cost efficiency of indicator-based targeting AgEcon
Houssou, Nazaire; Zeller, Manfred.
This paper assesses the cost efficiency of indicator-based targeting. Using household survey data from Malawi, we examine whether an indicator-based targeting of the poor is more target- and cost-efficient than the currently used mechanisms for targeting agricultural subsidy programs in the country. There is compelling evidence in favor of targeting Malawi’s poor based on the newly developed system. An indicator-based targeting system appears to be more target- and cost-efficient than the 2000/01 Starter Pack and the 2006/07 Agricultural Input Subsidy Program (AISP). While the Starter Pack and the AISP transferred about 50% of total transfer, under an indicator-based system, about 73% of transfers are delivered to the poor. Likewise, under an...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Malawi; Poverty targeting; Validation tests; Cost efficiency; Development policy; Agricultural and Food Policy; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Food Security and Poverty; Political Economy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C01; C13; I32.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61007
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Operational Models for Improving the Targeting Efficiency of Agricultural and Development Policies: A systematic comparison of different estimation methods using out-of-sample tests AgEcon
Houssou, Nazaire; Zeller, Manfred.
Accurate targeting is key for the success of any development policy. While a number of factors might explain low targeting efficiency such as governance failure, political interference or lack of political will, this paper focuses on improving indicator-based models that identify poor households and smallholder farmers more accurately. Using stepwise regressions along with out-of-sample validation tests and receiver operating characteristic curves, this paper develops proxy means tests models for rural and urban Malawi. The models developed have proved their validity in an independent sample and therefore, can be used to target a wide range of development policies to the poor. This makes the models a potentially interesting policy tool for the country.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Malawi; Poverty targeting; Predictions; Proxy means tests; Out-of-sample tests; ROC curve; Bootstrap; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Food Security and Poverty; International Development; Political Economy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C01; C13; C51; C52; I3; I32; Q14.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51454
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Developing Poverty Assessment Tools Based on Principal Component Analysis: Results from Bangladesh, Kazakhstan, Uganda, and Peru AgEcon
Zeller, Manfred; Houssou, Nazaire; Alcaraz V., Gabriela; Schwarze, Stefan; Johannsen, Julia.
Developing accurate, yet operational poverty assessment tools to target the poorest households remains a challenge for applied policy research. This paper aims to develop poverty assessment tools for four countries: Bangladesh, Peru, Uganda, and Kazakhstan. The research applies the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to seek the best set of variables that predict the household poverty status using easily measurable socio-economic indicators. Out of sample validations tests are performed to assess the prediction power of a tool. Finally, the PCA results are compared with those obtained from regressions models. In-sample estimation results suggest that the Quantile regression technique is the first best method in all four countries, except Kazakhstan. The PCA...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Poverty assessment; Targeting; Principal component analysis; Bangladesh; Peru; Kazakhstan; Uganda; Food Security and Poverty; H5; Q14; I3.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25396
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How Best to Target the Poor? An operational targeting of the poor using indicator-based proxy means tests AgEcon
Houssou, Nazaire; Zeller, Manfred; Alcaraz V., Gabriela; Johannsen, Julia; Schwarze, Stefan.
This paper seeks to answer an operational development question: how best to target the poor? In their endeavor, policy makers, program managers, and development practitioners face the daily challenge of targeting policies, projects, and services at the poorer strata of the population. This is also the case for microfinance institutions that seek to estimate the poverty outreach among their clients. This paper addresses these challenges. Using household survey data from Uganda, we estimate four alternative models for improving the identification of the poor in the country. Furthermore, we analyze the model sensitivity to different poverty lines and test their validity using bootstrapped simulation methods. While there is bound to be some errors, no...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Uganda; Poverty assessment; Targeting; Proxy means tests; Validations; Bootstrap; Food Security and Poverty.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/95780
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Proxy Means Tests for Targeting the Poorest Households -- Applications to Uganda AgEcon
Houssou, Nazaire; Zeller, Manfred; Alcaraz V., Gabriela; Schwarze, Stefan; Johannsen, Julia.
The motivation for this research stems from increasing interest showed for the issue of targeting. The paper explores the use of proxy means tests to identify the poorest households in Uganda. The set of indicators used in our model includes variables usually available in Living Standard Measurement Surveys (LSMS). Previous researches seeking to develop proxy means tests for poverty most often use Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) as regression method. In addition to the OLS, the paper explores the use of Linear Probability Model, Probit, and Quantile regressions for correctly predicting the household poverty status. A further innovation of this research compared to the existing literature is the use of out-of sample validation tests to assess the predictive...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Uganda; Poverty assessment; Targeting; Proxy means test; Out-of-sample test; Bootstrap; Consumer/Household Economics; Food Security and Poverty.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7946
Registros recuperados: 6
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