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Registros recuperados: 13
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Phase Space Reconstruction from Time Series Data: Where History Meets Theory AgEcon
Huffaker, Ray G..
In ‘dissipative’ dynamical systems, variables evolve asymptotically toward low‐dimensional ‘attractors’ that define their dynamical properties. Unfortunately, real‐world dynamical systems are generally too complex for us to directly observe these attractors. Fortunately, there is a method—‘phase space reconstruction’—that can be used to indirectly detect attractors in real‐world dynamical systems using time series data on a single variable (Broomhead and King, 1985; Schaffer and Kott, 1985; Kott et al, 1988; Williams,1997). Armed with this knowledge, we can formulate more accurate and informative models of real‐world dynamical systems. We begin by introducing the concept of phase space attractors within the context of a dynamic ISLM model. We next...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/100455
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DYNAMICS OF OPTIMAL INTERACTIONS BETWEEN PASTURE PRODUCTION AND MILK YIELDS OF AUSTRALIAN DAIRY FARMS AgEcon
Tozer, Peter R.; Huffaker, Ray G..
Deregulation of the Australian dairy industry could effect the utilization of resources by milk producers. In this study we examine the feed input mix dairy producers use, both pastures and supplements, prior to and after deregulation. We are particularly interested in the interaction of pasture utilization and farm profitability.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Dairy production; Pasture utilization; Deregulation; Land Economics/Use; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 1998 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20785
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Phase Space Reconstruction from Economic Time Series Data: Improving Models of Complex Real-World Dynamic Systems AgEcon
Huffaker, Ray G..
Failure of economic models to anticipate the global financial crisis illustrates the need for modeling to better capture complex real-world dynamics. Conventional models—in which economic variables evolve toward equilibria or fluctuate about equilibria in response to exogenous random shocks—are ill-equipped to portray complex real-world dynamics in which economic variables may cycle aperiodically along low-dimensional ‘strange attractors’. We present a method developed in the physics literature—‘phase space reconstruction’—that reconstructs strange attractors present in real-world dynamical systems using time series data on a single variable. Phase space reconstruction provides pictures of real-world dynamics that can guide model specification
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Phase space reconstruction; Time series data; Economic dynamics; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97021
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AN INTRASEASONAL BIOECONOMIC MODEL OF PLRV NET NECROSIS AgEcon
Marsh, Thomas L.; Huffaker, Ray G.; Folwell, Raymond J.; Long, Gary.
A bioeconomic model is developed as an IPM planning tool to combat PLRV net necrosis in the PNW potato industry. Environmental/biological and production processes are linked to marketing activities using discrete time control. We find that pesticides can be optimally timed to reduce applications and still protect against net necrosis.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy.
Ano: 1998 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20935
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Phase Space Reconstruction and Nonlinear Equilibrium Dynamics in the United States Beef Market AgEcon
McCullough, Michael; Marsh, Thomas L.; Huffaker, Ray G..
This paper investigates dynamic interactions in the US beef market using phase space reconstruction, which has been developed to analyze nonlinear dynamical systems. This approach provides important and unique empirical insights into consumers’ behavior in the beef market. Our results from a phase space reconstruction analysis demonstrate distinct differences between intertemporal short run impacts from food safety outbreaks (e.g., E. Coli) and longer run health effects (e.g., cholesterol). Adjustments due to factors such as cholesterol are permanent changes and do not affect the manner by which people consume, while consumers react to food safety scares by adjusting consumption for a short period of time and then returning to their normal steady state...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Nonlinear time series; Phase space reconstruction; Food safety; Health effects; Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9830
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IRRIGATION DISTRICT ADOPTION OF WATER CONSERVING RATE STRUCTURES AgEcon
Michelsen, Ari M.; McGuckin, J. Thomas; Taylor, R. Garth; Huffaker, Ray G..
A binary choice model was used to identify the attributes that influence irrigation district adoption of conservation rate structures. Using principles of rate design and irrigation district administration as a framework, measures of irrigation district rate structure objectives and physical and economic conditions were developed. The factors investigated characterize the constraints under which districts operate, value and cost of water, quantity of water delivered and revenue risk for districts. Rate structure adoption was predicted with over 75% accuracy. Both significant and non-significant factors are key to understanding rate choice. Districts were more likely to adopt conservation rate pricing when the cost of water to farmers was greater, higher...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy; Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 1998 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20964
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OPTIMAL CONTROL OF PEST RESISTANCE TO TRANSGENIC CROP VARIETIES AgEcon
Grimsrud, Kristine M.; Huffaker, Ray G..
Transgenic corn varieties entered the market in 1996. These plant varieties carry a gene from the soil bacterium Bacillus thuringiensis kurstaki, Bt, that makes the plant produce a toxin deadly to the pest insect European Corn Borer (ECB) Ostrinia nubilalis (Hübner). Since ECB may build up genetic resistance to this toxin, the growers of transgenic corn varieties are required to plant a portion of their field (refuge) with regular corn. This requirement is expected to prolong the efficiency of Bt corn in combating the ECB because some non-resistant pests can survive in the refuge, and thereby dilute the build-up of resistance in the overall pest population. A fixed refuge size of 20 percent is the currently recommended "rule-of-thumb" by the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20452
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EVALUATING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF CONSERVATION WATER-PRICING PROGRAMS: REPLY AgEcon
Huffaker, Ray G.; Whittlesey, Norman K.; Michelsen, Ari M.; Taylor, R. Garth; McGuckin, J. Thomas.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 1998 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31193
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DAIRY DEREGULATION AND LOW-INPUT DAIRY PRODUCTION: A BIOECONOMIC EVALUATION AgEcon
Tozer, Peter R.; Huffaker, Ray G..
Deregulation of the Australian dairy industry could affect the utilization of resources by milk producers and the profitability of dairy production. In this study we examine the feed mix that dairy producers use, both pastures and supplements, under partial and total deregulation. We are particularly interested in the interaction of pasture utilization and farm profitability. The results of this research demonstrate that profitable low-input dairy is constrained by the most limiting resource, feed supplied by pasture, and that the interactions between economic and biological processes are critical to farm profitability.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; Production Economics.
Ano: 1999 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30867
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A BIOECONOMIC LIVESTOCK/ WILD HORSE TRADE-OFF MECHANISM FOR CONSERVING PUBLIC RANGELAND VEGETATION AgEcon
Huffaker, Ray G.; Wilen, James E.; Gardner, B. Delworth.
The objective is to analyze a mechanism for controlling wild horse and livestock densities on public rangeland. The mechanism incorporates key ecological and economic parameters and is designed to be consistent with public interests in: (a) the multiple-use and sustained-yield management of rangeland vegetation, (b) the protection of wild horses, and (c) the prevention of economic harm to the western livestock industry.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Land Economics/Use; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 1990 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32493
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EMERGING AGRICULTURAL WATER CONSERVATION PRICE INCENTIVES AgEcon
Michelsen, Ari M.; Taylor, R. Garth; Huffaker, Ray G.; McGuckin, J. Thomas.
Recent Bureau of Reclamation policies encourage or require irrigation districts to adopt price conservation incentives. Using unpublished survey results and new district-level information, we examine the rate structures and incentives of district water pricing. Our findings reveal that the majority of districts use fixed charges independent of the quantity of water delivered and that most conservation rate structures recently implemented are designed so that the first tier quantity allocation satisfies most crop water needs. Although other district management objectives may be satisfied, price incentives are diminished or nonexistent. The question of whether conservation is being achieved is tautological and depends on how each district defines conservation.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 1999 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30871
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Impacts of Biofuels on Water Supply: Proposed Cures May Worsen the Disease AgEcon
Huffaker, Ray G..
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Water; Conservation; Biofuels; Irrigation; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q25; Q48.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/95758
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EVALUATING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF CONSERVATION WATER-PRICING PROGRAMS AgEcon
Huffaker, Ray G.; Whittlesey, Norman K.; Michelsen, Ari M.; Taylor, R. Garth; McGuckin, J. Thomas.
Charging farmers increasing block prices for irrigation deliveries is advocated as a means of encouraging agricultural water conservation in the West. We formulated a model of a hypothetical irrigated river basin to investigate the hyrdro-economic circumstances in which such pricing leads to water conservation. Our results indicate that increasing delivery prices may encourage irrigators to make adjustments with countervailing impacts on consumptive water use and conservation. Whether these countervailing impacts combine to conserve water or increase its consumptive use must be resolved empirically. An alternative resolution of this ambiguity is to assess water prices in terms of consumptive use.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 1998 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31174
Registros recuperados: 13
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