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| Queiros, Ana M.; Huebert, Klaus B.; Keyl, Friedemann; Fernandes, Jose A.; Stolte, Willem; Maar, Marie; Kay, Susan; Jones, Miranda C.; Hamon, Katell; Hendriksen, Gerrit; Vermard, Youen; Marchal, Paul; Teal, Lorna R.; Somerfield, Paul J.; Austen, Melanie C.; Barange, Manuel; Sell, Anne F.; Allen, Icarus; Peck, Myron A.. |
| The Paris Conference of Parties (COP21) agreement renewed momentum for action against climate change, creating the space for solutions for conservation of the ocean addressing two of its largest threats: climate change and ocean acidification (CCOA). Recent arguments that ocean policies disregard a mature conservation research field and that protected areas cannot address climate change may be oversimplistic at this time when dynamic solutions for the management of changing oceans are needed. We propose a novel approach, based on spatial meta-analysis of climate impact models, to improve the positioning of marine protected areas to limit CCOA impacts. We do this by estimating the vulnerability of ocean ecosystems to CCOA in a spatially explicit manner and... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Climate change; Conservation; COP21; Ecosystem model; Habitat; Marine spatial planning; Ocean; Ocean acidification; Species distribution; Warming. |
| Ano: 2016 |
URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00360/47089/48566.pdf |
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| Peck, Myron A.; Arvanitidis, Christos; Butenschon, Momme; Canu, Donata Melaku; Chatzinikolaou, Eva; Cucco, Andrea; Domenici, Paolo; Fernandes, Jose A.; Gasche, Loic; Huebert, Klaus B.; Hufnagl, Marc; Jones, Miranda C.; Kempf, Alexander; Keyl, Friedemann; Maar, Marie; Mahevas, Stephanie; Marchal, Paul; Nicolas, Delphine; Pinnegar, John K.; Rivot, Etienne; Rochette, Sebastien; Sell, Anne F.; Sinerchia, Matteo; Solidoro, Cosimo; Somerfield, Paul J.; Teal, Lorna R.; Travers-trolet, Morgane; Van De Wolfshaar, Karen E.. |
| We review and compare four broad categories of spatially-explicit modelling approaches currently used to understand and project changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources including: 1) statistical species distribution models, 2) physiology-based, biophysical models of single life stages or the whole life cycle of species, 3) food web models, and 4) end-to-end models. Single pressures are rare and, in the future, models must be able to examine multiple factors affecting living marine resources such as interactions between: i) climate-driven changes in temperature regimes and acidification, ii) reductions in water quality due to eutrophication, iii) the introduction of alien invasive species, and/or iv) (over-)exploitation by... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Distribution; Modelling; Habitat; Resources; Man-induced effects. |
| Ano: 2018 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00337/44845/44436.pdf |
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| Lotze, Heike K.; Tittensor, Derek P.; Bryndum-buchholz, Andrea; Eddy, Tyler D.; Cheung, William W. L.; Galbraith, Eric D.; Barange, Manuel; Barrier, Nicolas; Bianchi, Daniele; Blanchard, Julia L; Bopp, Laurent; Buchner, Matthias; Bulman, Catherine M.; Carozza, David A.; Christensen, Villy; Coll, Marta; Dunne, John P.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Jennings, Simon; Jones, Miranda C.; Mackinson, Steve; Maury, Olivier; Niiranen, Susa; Oliveros-ramos, Ricardo; Roy, Tilla; Fernandes, Jose A.; Schewe, Jacob; Shin, Yunne-jai; Silva, Tiago A. M.; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Stock, Charles A.; Verley, Philippe; Volkholz, Jan; Walker, Nicola D.; Worm, Boris. |
| While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (+/- 4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (+/- 11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 degrees C of warming. Projected biomass... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Climate change impacts; Marine food webs; Global ecosystem modeling; Model intercomparison; Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2019 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00659/77125/78507.pdf |
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| Payne, Mark R.; Barange, Manuel; Cheung, William W. L.; Mackenzie, Brian R.; Batchelder, Harold P.; Cormon, Xochitl; Eddy, Tyler D.; Fernandes, Jose A.; Hollowed, Anne B.; Jones, Miranda C.; Link, Jason S.; Neubauer, Philipp; Ortiz, Ivonne; Queirós, Ana M.; Paula, José Ricardo. |
| Projections of the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems are a key prerequisite for the planning of adaptation strategies, yet they are inevitably associated with uncertainty. Identifying, quantifying, and communicating this uncertainty is key to both evaluating the risk associated with a projection and building confidence in its robustness. We review how uncertainties in such projections are handled in marine science. We employ an approach developed in climate modelling by breaking uncertainty down into (i) structural (model) uncertainty, (ii) initialization and internal variability uncertainty, (iii) parametric uncertainty, and (iv) scenario uncertainty. For each uncertainty type, we then examine the current state-of-the-art in assessing and... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Climate change; Initialization uncertainty; Parametric uncertainty; Projections; Scenario uncertainty; Structural uncertainty; Uncertainty.. |
| Ano: 2016 |
URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00301/41220/40392.pdf |
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| Jones, Miranda C.; Dye, Stephen R.; Fernandes, Jose A.; Froelicher, Thomas L.; Pinnegar, John K.; Warren, Rachel; Cheung, William W. L.. |
| Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of... |
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| Ano: 2013 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00120/23104/20952.pdf |
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