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| Kirby, Mac; Connor, Jeffery D.; Bark, Rosalind H.; Qureshi, Muhammad Ejaz; Keyworth, Scott W.. |
| The recent drought saw the lowest inflows on record in the Murray-Darling Basin in 2006. Water use by irrigation in 2007-8 and 2008-9 was about one third that of pre-drought levels. Understanding how irrigation adapted to less water is key both to provide information to help plan for the future and data for model calibration. Complicating this objective was the concurrent international food price crisis of 2008 and an increase in water trading in the basin. This presents a challenge in unpacking the effects of commodity price changes, input substitution, productivity gains and water trading from the effect of reduced water availability. In this paper we seek Our objective is to unpack the various effects. We used publicly available price and production... |
| Tipo: Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy. |
| Ano: 2012 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124490 |
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| Kirby, Mac; Mainuddin, Mohammed; Gao, Lei; Ahmad, Mobin-ud-Din. |
| Climate change and the proposed Murray-Darling Basin Plan both result in less water for irrigation. Climate change is projected to take water from all uses including the environment, whereas the likely sustainable diversion limit in the Plan aims (amongst other things) to return water to the environment. We examine the impact on flows and the returns to irrigation of potential reductions in irrigation allocations, and the interaction with projected climate change impacts. Our analysis is based on an integrated hydrology – economics model of the Murray- Darling Basin, described in Kirby et al. (2012a). The model can quickly and easily run new climate or other scenarios, accounting for flows at key environmental assets. It uses a statistically calibrated... |
| Tipo: Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy. |
| Ano: 2012 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124309 |
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| Connor, Jeffery D.; Kirby, Mac; Schwabe, Kurt A.; Lukasiewicz, Anna; Kaczan, David. |
| This article evaluates irrigated agriculture sector response and resultant economic impacts of climate change for a part of the Murray Darling Basin in Australia. A water balance model is used to predict reduced basin inflows for mild, moderate and severe climate change scenarios involving 10, 20, 40 Celcius warming, and predict 13%, 38% and 63% reduced inflows. Impact on irrigated agricultural production and profitability are estimated with a mathematical programming model using a two-stage approach that simultaneously estimates short and long-run adjustments. The model accounts for a range of adaptive responses including: deficit irrigation, temporarily fallowing some areas, and permanently reducing irrigated area and changing the mix of crops. The... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy; Land Economics/Use. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/5974 |
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| Qureshi, Muhammad Ejaz; Connor, Jeffery D.; Kirby, Mac; Mainuddin, Mohammed. |
| This article is an economic analysis of reallocating River Murray Basin water from agriculture to the environment with and without the possibility of interregional water trade. Acquiring environmental flows as an equal percentage of water allocations from all irrigation regions in the Basin is estimated to reduce returns to irrigation. When the same volume of water is taken from selected low-value regions only, the net revenue reduction is less. In all scenarios considered, net revenue gains from freeing trade are estimated to outweigh the negative revenue effects of reallocating water for environmental flows. The model accounts for how stochastic weather affects market water demand, supply and requirements for environmental flows. Net irrigation revenue... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/118333 |
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| Kirby, Mac; Mainuddin, Mohammed; Gao, Lei; Connor, Jeffery D.; Ahmad, Mobin-ud-Din. |
| We aim to model the impact of variability in and changes to water availability in the Murray-Darling Basin on flows available to the environment and irrigation, and impact on the value of irrigated agricultural production. Our objective is to understand the opportunities for changed management of the basin, how they are constrained by climate change and other factors, and how they might affect the returns to irrigation and flows for the environment, so that we may provide information to help plan for the future. In this paper we describe the model: in other papers in this conference we describe analyses of water availability and use in the basin based on this model. The hydrology component of the model is based on a simple, monthly water balance stocks and... |
| Tipo: Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2012 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124487 |
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