SABIIA - Sistema Aberto e Integrado de Informação em Agricultura (Sabiia)

The methodological challenge addressed here is modelling multi-regional development of agricultural production and structural change, including land competition, in a dynamic partial equilibrium setting. The model applied in this study is a dynamic recursive model simulating the development of the agricultural investments and markets annually from 1995 up to 2020. Results show that land prices play a role when animal production increases in most competitive regions and gradually decreases in less productive regions. The framework can be applied when analysing how various new techniques, practices and regulations for land use affect regional production structures.

Evaluating the Impact of Alternative Agricultural Policy Scenarios on Multifunctionality: A Case Study of Finland

Palavras-chave: Agricultural sector modelling; Technical change; Land competition; Manure nutrients; Agri-environmental policies; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61074

Lehtonen, Heikki; Lankoski, Jussi E.; Niemi, Jyrki S..

This paper provides first results of the sector-model approach to analysing the effects of alternative policy scenarios on the multifunctional role of Finnish agriculture. In terms of environmental non-commodity outputs, this study focuses on nutrient runoffs, landscape diversity and biodiversity. As regards other non-commodity outputs, the paper considers rural socio-economic viability. The results suggest that, on the whole, reform of the common agricultural policy is not likely to result in any drastic decline of agricultural production in Finland. The amount of green fallow will increase considerably when agricultural support payments are decoupled from production, and as a result the remaining cultivated agricultural land will become biologically...

Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper

Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25137

The value of market uncertainty in a livestock epidemic

Niemi, Jarkko K.; Lehtonen, Heikki.

Introduction of foot and mouth disease (FMD) into country typically initiates eradication procedures which remove animals from the market, and halts the export of livestock products from the infected country. The magnitude of these effects can be highly uncertain. This paper presents a stochastic dynamic programming model which simulates possible market implications of alternative FMD and export scenarios in the Finnish pig sector. It takes into account dynamics and adjustment of the animal stock, price movements and uncertainty related to the duration of the trade ban. Results suggest that losses to pig producers can increase considerably when the risk of prolonged export ban increases. Production adjustments also strengthen. Consumers can gain from a...

Modelling the impacts of multilateral agricultural trade liberalization on the EU

Palavras-chave: Livestock epidemics; Dynamic programming; Demand; Supply; Export; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6158

Niemi, Jyrki S.; Kerkela, Leena; Lehtonen, Heikki.

The objective of this paper is to explore the implications of domestic policy reforms and trade liberalisation on EU and global agricultural markets by utilising the GTAP model. The results suggest that CAP reforms in conjunction with the removal of export subsidies and tariff reductions according to the proposals from the EU and the US in the WTO would decrease EU's production, reduce EU's exports, and increase EU's imports in almost all the examined agricultural products. For countries such as Australia, the US, and the MERCOSUR group, higher world prices stimulate domestic agricultural production, partly offsetting the EU output decline.

IMPACT OF PHASING OUT MILK QUOTAS ON STRUCTURE AND PRODUCTION OF FINNISH DAIRY SECTOR

Palavras-chave: EU; WTO; Tariff reductions; Export subsidies; CAP reforms; GTAP model; International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44334

We evaluate impacts of milk quota abolition in Finland where production costs and producer price of milk are among the highest in the EU. We analyse several price scenarios for dairy products corresponding to 10-30% reductions in raw milk prices in the EU following milk quota expansion of 2% per year. The sector model includes 18 dairy products and regions and other agricultural activities. Armington -assumption is used in modelling foreign trade. Trade of milk quotas and structural change are endogenous in the model. The results suggest that 10-15% reductions in the EU milk prices would result in less than 10% decrease in Finnish dairy production. Investments to large farm units would still increase. However, if the EU milk prices decreased by 15-20%...

MODELLING THE DYNAMICS OF PRODUCTION ADJUSTMENT TO SHORT-TERM MARKET SHOCKS

Palavras-chave: Milk quotas; EU; Milk production; Dairy product processing; Farm size; Investments; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6465

Niemi, Jarkko K.; Lehtonen, Heikki.

Models of agricultural economics typically operate at an annual basis or in a static equilibrium framework where inputs, outputs and their prices may change considerably. Production dynamics, however, imply that models relying on spatial and temporal aggregation do not capture the effects of biological constraints in the short run. This paper examines short and long-term impacts of demand and production cost shocks in the pig sector. The analysis is carried out with a dynamic programming model which takes into account changes in export and domestic demand and market clearing price. It optimizes the supply of piglets on a monthly basis. Econometric techniques are used to estimate demand functions. Short-term negative market shocks can already have...

Resolving the conflict between environmental damage and agricultural viability on less favoured areas

Palavras-chave: Pig; Demand; Dynamic programming; Export; Livestock epidemics; Price; Supply; Demand and Price Analysis; Livestock Production/Industries; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6401

Production linked supports are paid for agriculture in less favoured areas (LFA) in Finland in order to maintain agricultural production and farms. The CAP reform increased the importance of LFA payments and other payments which are still partly coupled to production. We evaluate if any significant environmental damage can be avoided without risking maintenance agricultural production in less favoured areas. We also evaluate the relative effectiveness of alternative policy measures to decrease nutrient surplus, promote biodiversity, and maintain production and farm income. The policy options evaluated are full decoupling, fertiliser tax, both combined and explicit payments for reduced nutrient surpluses. The impacts of the options are compared to the...

Implications of Trade Liberalization and Domestic Reforms on EU Agricultural Markets

Palavras-chave: Agri-environmental policies; Nutrient surplus; Agricultural sector modelling; Environmental Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44150

Huan-Niemi, Ellen; Kerkela, Leena; Lehtonen, Heikki; Niemi, Jyrki S..

The objective of this paper is to explore the overall effects of further trade liberalization and the implemented CAP reforms on EU agricultural production, imports and exports within different EU regions by using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model. The GTAP model is used to compare a lower tariff reduction formula (EU Proposal) with a higher reduction formula (US Proposal) in order to show how sensitive the examined agricultural commodity/sector is to the different tariff reduction formulae. This analysis reveals that EU imports would escalate and EU exports would plummet with declining EU production because of trade liberalization and domestic policy reforms in the EU agricultural markets and sectors.

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: EU; WTO; CAP reforms; Tariff reductions; Export subsidies; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Demand and Price Analysis; Environmental Economics and Policy; Financial Economics; International Relations/Trade; Q1.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92554

The Impacts of Alternative Policy Scenarios on Multifunctionality

Lehtonen, Heikki; Lankoski, Jussi E.; Niemi, Jyrki S.; Ollikainen, Markku.

This paper provides first results of the sector model approach to analyze the effects of alternative policy scenarios on the multifunctional role of Finnish agriculture. In terms of environmental non-commodity outputs we focus on nutrient runoffs, landscape diversity and biodiversity. As regards to socio-economic outputs our focus is on direct and indirect agricultural labour force. The results suggest that while partial de-coupling agricultural supports from production is not likely to result in any drastic decline of agricultural production the amount of green fallow will increase considerably. As a result, the agricultural land will become biologically richer. The agricultural labour force is likely to decrease substantially irrespective of agricultural...

Market implications of FMD epidemics in the Finnish pig sector: Does market structure matter?

Palavras-chave: Agricultural policy; Multifunctionality; Sector model; Agricultural and Food Policy; Q18; Q21.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24459

Niemi, Jarkko K.; Lehtonen, Heikki; Lyytikainen, Tapani; Kallio, E..

This paper examines the role of market coordination and market distortions caused by a hypothetical FMD outbreak in the Finnish pig sector. By using stochastic dynamic programming, it simulates the consequences of two outbreak scenarios (large vs. small) under two distinct market regimes (competitive market vs. monopoly in the domestic supply). Simulated losses depend on the magnitude of outbreak and expected duration of possible turndown of meat exports, whereas market regime has a limited impact.

Climate change impacts on crop risks and agricultural production in Finland

Palavras-chave: Foreign trade; Livestock epidemics; Dynamic programming; Livestock Production/Industries.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43837

Lehtonen, Heikki; Kujala, Sanna.

Climate Change is expected to improve crop production conditions significantly in northern Europe. In some studies a significant increase in agricultural production is expected in northern Europe while drought is becoming gradually more severe in Southern Europe and France due to climate change. Our analysis provides one of the first steps in evaluating the possible scale of changes in agricultural production and use of farm land in Finland, so far one of the least favoured agricultural areas in Europe. Drought in early summer and low temperature sum during growing period are currently the main growth limiting factors in Finland. Even though the early part of the growing period is likely to be dry also in the future, both mean and variance of crop yields...

Impacts of More Efficient Use of Manure Nutrients at Farm and Sector Level

Palavras-chave: Climate change; Agriculture; Risk aversion; Mean-variance analysis; Sector models; Optimization; Crop production; Finland; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.

Ano: 2007

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9259

Risk Classification in Animal Disease Prevention: Who Benefits from Differentiated Policy?

Palavras-chave: Farm Management.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114390

Niemi, Jarkko K.; Lyytikainen, Tapani; Sahlstrom, Leena; Virtanen, Terhi; Lehtonen, Heikki.

Risk classification of livestock farms can help stakeholders design and implement risk management measures according to the possessed risk. Our goal is to examine how differently pig farms may contribute to the societal costs of an animal disease outbreak, how valuable this information is to different stakeholders, and how it can be used to target risk management measures. We show that the costs of an outbreak starting from a certain farm can be quantified for the entire sector using bio-economic models. In further studies, this quantified risk can be differentiated so that farms and slaughterhouses internalise the full cost of risk in production decisions and inhibit animal densities, animal contact structures or other characteristics which pose a threat...