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| Listorti, Giulia; Kempen, Markus; Girardin, Jean; Kranzlein, Tim. |
| In a context in which price uncertainty is likely to increase, expected market trends need to be taken carefully into account while negotiating international trade policy rules. This paper aims at analyzing what is their influence on the use of policy flexibilities in the context of WTO agricultural negotiations. In particular, within the market access pillar, we focus on the selection of sensitive products. Our model, TRIMAG (Tariff Reduction Impact Model for Agriculture), defined at the 8-digit level, optimizes the domestic agricultural value added subject to a maximum number of sensitive tariff lines, accounting for various future international price scenarios. Furthermore, we test the use of alternative options for the implementation of “tariff... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: WTO agricultural negotiations; Market access; Sensitive products; International Relations/Trade; F13; Q17. |
| Ano: 2011 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114381 |
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| Listorti, Giulia; Esposti, Roberto. |
| This paper aims at making the world price endogenous within the AGMEMOD modelling approach. This approach constructs country-level commodity market models where supply and demand sides are equalized on the basis of the observed domestic prices. These prices are endogenous as they depend (price transmission equation) on a EU key-price, which is, in turn, endogenously determined by the world price (price formation equation). The world prices, however, are assumed to be exogenous. To make the world price endogenous, we propose a system of equations where the EU key-price and the world price are simultaneously determined. This system of equations, written in a dynamic and error-correction form (VECM), substitutes the usual price-formation equation, while price... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Price Formation and Transmission; Commodity Market Models; VECM; Demand and Price Analysis; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Q110; Q170. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6659 |
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| Esposti, Roberto; Listorti, Giulia. |
| This paper analyses the horizontal transmission of cereal price shocks both across different market places and across different commodities. The analysis is carried out using Italian and international weekly spot (cash) price data and concentrating the attention on years 2006-2010, a period of generalized exceptional exuberance and consequent rapid drop of agricultural prices. The work aims at investigating how price transmission may be affected during price bubbles. The properties of price time series are firstly explored to assess which data generation process may have eventually produced the observed patterns. Secondly, the interdependence across prices is specified and estimated adopting appropriate cointegration techniques. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Price Transmission; Price Bubbles; Time Series Properties; Cointegration; Demand and Price Analysis; Q110; C320. |
| Ano: 2011 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114338 |
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| Listorti, Giulia; Kempen, Markus; Girardin, Jean; Kranzlein, Tim. |
| Within WTO agricultural negotiations, this paper deals with alternative criteria for the selection of sensitive products. Existing methodologies mostly rely on the analysis of tariffs and trade flows. On the contrary, assessments of the economic impacts on specific groups of stakeholders, namely the domestic agricultural sector, are missing or conducted at a high level of product aggregation. We hence develop a methodology that considers the effects of the selection of sensitive products on domestic agricultural prices. Our model, TRIMAG (Tariff Reduction Impact Model for Agriculture), defined at the 8-digit level, optimizes the domestic agricultural value added subject to a maximum number of sensitive tariff lines. The existing methodologies are applied... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: WTO agricultural negotiations; Market access; Sensitive products; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade; F13; Q17. |
| Ano: 2011 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98986 |
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