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Optimal Control of Spreading Biological Invasions: For How Long Should We Apply the Brake? AgEcon
Carrasco, Luis Roman; MacLeod, Alan; Knight, John D.; Baker, Richard; Mumford, John D..
Identifying the optimal switching point between different invasive alien species (IAS) management policies is a very complex task and policy makers are in need of modelling tools to assist them. In this paper we develop an optimal control bioeconomic model to estimate the type of optimal policy and switching point of control efforts against a spreading IAS. We apply the models to the case study of Colorado potato beetle in the UK. The results demonstrate that eradication is optimal for small initial sizes of invasion at discovery. High capacity of the agency to reduce spread velocity for several years leads to smaller total overall costs of invasion and makes eradication optimal for larger sizes of initial invasion. In many cases, it is optimal to switch...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Barrier zone; Biosecurity; Dynamic optimization; Eradication; Leptinotarsa decemlineata; Pest risk analysis; Reaction-diffusion.; Risk and Uncertainty; Q1; Q28; Q57.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50940
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MODELING THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASED IMPORTATION OF FRESH PRODUCE FROM EMERGING SUPPLY SOURCES TO THE UK AgEcon
Mwebaze, Paul; Monaghan, J.; Revell, Brian J.; Hare, M.; MacLeod, Alan; Spence, N..
The risk of non-indigenous pests entering the UK via international trade in fresh produce is increasing. Suppliers of fresh produce to UK and EU multiple retailers are utilising new procurement areas for fresh produce importation to reduce their costs of production. The objective of this paper is to identify current and future supply sources for UK fresh produce importers and examine the extent to which they provide invasion pathways. The hypothesis that increased importation of fresh produce from new sources outside the EU could increase the risks of non-indigenous pests is tested in a bio-economic model in which the number of species detections per unit of imports is a function of the number of inspections per unit of imports and country of origin, while...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Quarantine pests; Pathways; Trade.; Food Security and Poverty; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43963
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