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| Dutheil, C.; Lengaigne, Matthieu; Bador, M.; Vialard, J.; Lefèvre, J.; Jourdain, N. C.; Jullien, Swen; Peltier, A.; Sultan, B.; Menkès, C.. |
| Climate model projections generally indicate fewer but more intense tropical cyclones (TCs) in response to increasing anthropogenic emissions. However these simulations suffer from long-standing biases in their Sea Surface Temperature (SST). While most studies investigating future changes in TC activity using high-resolution atmospheric models correct for the present-day SST bias, they do not consider the reliability of the projected SST changes from global climate models. The present study illustrates that future South Pacific TC activity changes are strongly sensitive to correcting the projected SST changes using an emergent constraint method. This additional correction indeed leads to a strong reduction of the cyclogenesis (−55%) over the South Pacific... |
| Tipo: Text |
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| Ano: 2020 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00614/72648/71651.pdf |
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