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CHARACTERIZING UNCERTAIN OUTCOMES WITH THE RESTRICTED HT TRANSFORMATION AgEcon
Moffitt, L. Joe.
Restrictions on the hyperbolic trigonometric (HT) transformation are imposed to guarantee that a probability density function is obtained from the maximum likelihood estimation. Performance of the restricted HT transformation using data generated from normal, beta, gamma, logistic, log-normal, Pareto, Weibull, order statistic, and bimodal populations is investigated via sampling experiments. Results suggest that the restricted HT transformaltion is sufficiently flexible to compete with the actual population distributions in most cases. Application of the restricted HT transformation is illustrated by characterizing uncertain net income per acre for community-supported agriculture farms in the northeastern United States.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Farm management; Hyperbolic trigonometric transformation; Uncertainty; Farm Management; C2; Q1.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15074
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Economics of Robust Surveillance on Exotic Animal Diseases: the Case of Bluetongue AgEcon
Carrasco, Luis Roman; Souza Monteiro, Diogo M.; Cook, Alasdair J.C.; Moffitt, L. Joe.
Control of emerging animal diseases critically depends on their early detection. However, designing surveillance programs for exotic and emerging diseases is very challenging because of knowledge gaps on the probability of incursion and mechanisms of spread. Using the example of Bluetongue Virus, which is exotic to the UK, we develop a metapopulation epidemic-economic modelling framework that considers the incursion, detection, spread and control of a disease in a livestock production system composed of heterogeneous subpopulations. The model is then embedded in an information gap (info-gap) framework to assess the robustness of surveillance and vaccination policies to unacceptable outbreaks losses and applied to the case of Bluetongue in the UK. The...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Compartmental epidemic model; Emergent animal disease; Knightian uncertainty; Sentinel surveillance system; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61817
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COTTON PRODUCTION UNDER RISK: AN ANALYSIS OF INPUT EFFECTS ON YIELD VARIABILITY AND FACTOR DEMAND AgEcon
Farnsworth, Richard L.; Moffitt, L. Joe.
The risk flexible production model developed by Just and Pope is estimated for the case of cotton in California’s San Joaquin Valley and the implications of the model for factor demand are examined. Results indicate risk-reducing roles for farm machinery, labor, and fertilizers in contrast to restrictions imposed by traditional stochastic production specifications. Qualitative assessment of estimated risk effects on factor employment under risk aversion are evaluated by comparison to the risk-neutral solution.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 1981 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32580
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APPLICATION OF THE ECONOMIC THRESHOLD FOR INTERSEASONAL PEST CONTROL AgEcon
Hall, Darwin C.; Moffitt, L. Joe.
We show how an interseasonal pest control problem can be simplified to enable an intraseasonal model to be empirically applied, extending the range of application of the intraseasonal model. Three alternative economic thresholds are compared. The optimal solution requires repeated computations by the farmer to compute the profit maximizing dose, with a corresponding threshold, for each pest infestation. Two alternative decision rules require a single computation by the farmer for the threshold and dosage rate. An empirical illustration shows that, relative to the optimal solution which is computationally burdensome to the farmer, little net revenue is lost by using one of the thresholds based upon a simpler decision rule.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Farm Management.
Ano: 1985 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32327
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RISK EVALUATION OF EARLY TERMINATION FOR PEST CONTROL IN COTTON AgEcon
Moffitt, L. Joe; Burrows, Thomas M.; Baritelle, John L.; Sevacherian, Vahram.
The exponential utility, moment-generating function approach to stochastic efficiency is used to evaluate pest control technologies for cotton under normal, gamma, and beta distributed crop yields. Results suggest that early termination of cotton is more profitable than current practice but may not be preferred if risk aversion characterizes grower behavior. Research directions and policy implications are indicated.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 1984 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32376
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POPULAR INFORMATIONAL PRIORITIES IN AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION AgEcon
Moffitt, L. Joe; Christensen, Robert L.; Fleming, Kent D..
Due to agriculture's increasingly complex technical and economic environment, the diversity of information required for competitive and profitable farming is growing as never before. With constant and, in some cases, reduced resources for agricultural programs, Extension must exercise special care in prioritizing informational efforts to best meet farm-client needs and retain an important base of public support. This paper presents a method of identifying popular informational priorities in Agricultural Extension. The method is illustrated by application to dairy programming in Massachusetts.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession.
Ano: 1990 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28963
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STOCHASTIC EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS OF COMMUNITY-SUPPORTED AGRICULTURE CORE MANAGEMENT OPTIONS AgEcon
Sanneh, Njundu; Moffitt, L. Joe; Lass, Daniel A..
The continued decline in both the number of and the acreage in small-scale farms and rural communities, as well as food safety and environmental concerns, has heightened interest in the community-supported agriculture (CSA) concept. Mean-variance, stochastic dominance, mean-Gini, and exponential utility/moment-generating function approaches to stochastic efficiency are employed to analyze three years of farm survey data on core management options for CSA farms. The core concept yields higher net income per acre than non-core management and, based on the stochastic efficiency analysis, should be regarded as the preferred management option for many CSA operators.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Agribusiness.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31053
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Securing the Border from Invasives: Robust Inspections Under Severe Uncertainty AgEcon
Moffitt, L. Joe; Stranlund, John K.; Osteen, Craig D..
Two important features of agricultural quarantine inspections of shipping containers for invasive species at U.S. ports of entry are the general absence of economic considerations and the severe uncertainty that surrounds invasive species introductions. In this article, we propose and illustrate a method for determining an inspection monitoring protocol that addresses both issues. An inspection monitoring protocol is developed that is robust in maximizing the set of uncertain outcomes over which an economic performance criterion is achieved. The framework is applied to derive an alternative to Agricultural Quarantine Inspection (AQI) for shipments of fruits and vegetables as currently practiced at ports of entry in the United States.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Inspection; Invasive Species; Uncertainty; Agricultural and Food Policy; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Public Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; Q18; Q57; D81.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53127
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ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF COTTON INTEGRATED PEST MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES: REPLY AgEcon
Liapis, Peter S.; Moffitt, L. Joe.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 1986 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29457
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ESTIMATING THE IMPACT OF BEEF IMPORT RESTRICTIONS IN THE US IMPORT MARKET: REPLY AgEcon
Chambers, Robert G.; Just, Richard E.; Moffitt, L. Joe; Schmitz, Andrew.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 1982 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22709
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Application of mean-Gini stochastic efficiency analysis AgEcon
McDonald, Jeffrey D.; Moffitt, L. Joe; Willis, Cleve E..
This article adds to the information base concerning the applicability of mean- Gini stochastic efficiency analysis in agriculture. The mean-Gini efficient set of decisions is characterized rigorously in terms of its corresponding absolute risk aversion. In an empirical analysis, the mean-Gini efficient set of decisions is derived for four studies from the literature and compared to the second degree stochastic dominance efficient set. An alternative quantitative measure of risk aversion is used to gain insight in a visceral sense to the risk preferences associated with mean-Gini efficient decisions.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 1997 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/118007
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ECONOMIC THRESHOLDS UNDER UNCERTAINTY WITH APPLICATION TO CORN NEMATODE MANAGEMENT AgEcon
Moffitt, L. Joe; Hall, Darwin C.; Osteen, Craig D..
An economic threshold of agricultural pest management is derived. Results provide a method for researchers to use in making improved pest control recommendations to farmers without farm level decision-making. An empirical illustration for lesion nematode management in irrigated corn is given and directions for further research are indicated.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1984 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29732
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Short-Run Welfare Implications of Restricting Fungicide Use in Vegetable Production AgEcon
Ferguson, Walter L.; Moffitt, L. Joe; Davis, R. Michael.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 1992 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/62317
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DO FARM BUSINESSES AND BIG BUSINESSES APPLY DIFFERENT CAPITAL BUDGETING PROCEDURES? AgEcon
Arthurton, Daniel A.; Moffitt, L. Joe; Allen, P. Geoffrey; Cox, Douglas A..
Recent studies of capital budgeting procedures used by business executives suggest increasing use of present value methods. This study compares Massachusetts greenhouse business managers use of capital budgeting procedures to those of Fortune 1000 firms. Results indicate that different capital budgeting procedures are used and that the payback criterion remains the most popular for the farm firms studied. Some implications for Extension finance educators are drawn.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Agribusiness.
Ano: 1995 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31597
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ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF COTTON INTEGRATED PEST MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES AgEcon
Liapis, Peter S.; Moffitt, L. Joe.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 1983 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30225
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INFORMATION VALUE IN WEED MANAGEMENT AgEcon
Gillmeister, William J.; Moffitt, L. Joe; Bhowmik, Prasanta C.; Allen, P. Geoffrey.
Use of the economic threshold to improve the efficiency of preemergent-herbicide treatment decisions is limited by a lack of weed information. An economic model for assessing the expected value of weed information needed to implement a threshold decision rule is developed. Empirical results suggest that early season weed information can have value in cabbage weed management in Massachusetts.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 1990 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28962
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ESTIMATING THE IMPACT OF BEEF IMPORT RESTRICTIONS IN THE US IMPORT MARKET AgEcon
Chambers, Robert G.; Just, Richard E.; Moffitt, L. Joe; Schmitz, Andrew.
A beef import model is specified and estimated using disequilibrium econometrics. The statistical significance of the model suggests that disequilibrium has historically existed in the US beef import market. Surplus analysis based on the disequilibrium framework indicates that a welfare loss has been incurred as a result of the quota and associated voluntary restraint programmes that have existed in that market.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade; Marketing.
Ano: 1981 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22869
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Prioritizing Invasive Species Threats Under Uncertainty AgEcon
Moffitt, L. Joe; Osteen, Craig D..
Prioritizing exotic or invasive pest threats in terms of agricultural, environmental, or human health damages is an important resource allocation issue for programs charged with preventing or responding to the entry of such organisms. Under extreme uncertainty, program managers may decide to research the severity of threats, develop prevention or control actions, and estimate cost-effectiveness in order to provide better information and more options when making decisions to choose strategies for specific pests. We examine decision rules based on the minimax and relative cost criteria in order to express a cautious approach for decisions regarding severe, irreversible consequences, discuss the strengths and weaknesses of these rules, examine the roles of...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Invasive species; Decision criteria; Uncertainty; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10168
Registros recuperados: 18
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