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| Registros recuperados: 31 | |
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| Myers, Robert J.; Liu, Yanyan; Hanson, Steven D.. |
| We argue that existing agricultural insurance valuation models are limited either because they are not complete equilibrium models that price the non-diversifiable risk involved in issuing insurance contracts, or they assume complete markets which appears at odds with most applications of agricultural insurance. We also propose two new incomplete market models and derive an insurance valuation formula for each under the assumption of constant relative risk aversion preferences and lognormally distributed random variables. The two models differ in the way they treat trade in insurance contracts, with one model allowing insurers and insureds to trade freely on a liquid secondary market, while the other requires insurance firms to act as brokers between... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19561 |
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| Negassa, Asfaw; Myers, Robert J.; Gabre-Madhin, Eleni Z.. |
| This paper discusses a modeling approach that extends and improves the standard parity bounds model (PBM) of spatial market efficiency by analyzing the dynamic effects of marketing policy changes. The model facilitates an improved understanding of the patterns of adjustment in grain marketing efficiency in response to policy changes in two main ways. First, it identifies whether there are statistically significant structural changes in trading regime probabilities as a result of a given marketing policy change. Second, it determines the time path of the response of spatial grain market efficiency to marketing policy changes, thus addressing the issue of how long will it take before the full effect of marketing policy change is realized on spatial grain... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16132 |
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| Jayne, Thomas S.; Myers, Robert J.; Nyoro, James K.. |
| The Government of Kenya pursues maize marketing policy objectives through the National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB) which procures and sells maize at administratively determined prices, and stores maize as a contingency against future shortages. A private sector marketing channel competes with the NCPB and prices in this channel are set by supply and demand forces. This paper estimates the effects of NCPB activities on the historical path of private sector maize market prices in Kenya between 1989 and 2004. Results provide important insights into the historical effects of the NCPB, and will provide useful input into deliberations on the appropriate role for the NCPB in the future. It was not possible to use a fully structural econometric model to... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Kenya; Income transfers; Maize policy; Price stabilization; VAR; International Development; C22; O2; Q13; Q18. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25555 |
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| Mason, Nicole M.; Myers, Robert J.. |
| More than two decades after the initiation of agricultural market reforms in eastern and southern Africa (ESA), governments in the region are increasingly using parastatal grain marketing boards (GMBs) and/or strategic grain reserves (SGRs) to directly influence the prices faced by farmers and consumers (Jayne, Chapoto, and Govereh 2007). In Zambia, the government through the Food Reserve Agency, an SGR/GMB, purchased nearly 400,000 MT of maize from smallholders in 2006/07 and 2007/08, or more than 50% of the maize marketed by this group. |
| Tipo: Technical Report |
Palavras-chave: Zambia; Smallholder; Food Security; Agricultural and Food Policy; Food Security and Poverty. |
| Ano: 2011 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120764 |
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| Negassa, Asfaw; Myers, Robert J.; Gabre-Madhin, Eleni Z.. |
| In the context of on-going market reform in developing countries, there is a need for an improvement in the existing methods of spatial market efficiency analysis in order to better inform the debate toward designing and implementing new grain marketing policies, institutions, and infrastructure that facilitate the emergence of a well developed and competitive grain marketing system. The standard parity bounds model (PBM), while it overcomes many weaknesses of the conventional methods of spatial market efficiency analysis, it does not allow for the test of structural changes in spatial market efficiency as a result of policy changes. In this paper, building on the standard PBM, we develop an extended parity bounds model (EPBM). The EPBM is a stochastic... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Marketing. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16133 |
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| Haydu, John J.; Myers, Robert J.; Thompson, Stanley R.. |
| This study investigated farmers' incentives to forward purchase inputs. A model of farmer decision making was used to derive an optimal forward contracting rule. Explicit in the model was the tradeoff between the quantity of input to be purchased in advance, and the remaining portion to be purchased later on the spot market. Results indicated that the primary reasons farmers contract inputs are to reduce risk and to speculate on favorable price moves. A numerical example of fertilizer used in corn production indicated that the size of the price discount was the dominant factor in forward contracting decisions. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Farm Management. |
| Ano: 1992 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30369 |
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| Lai, Jing-Yi; Myers, Robert J.; Hanson, Steven D.. |
| Most previous research on post-harvest grain storage by farmers has assumed risk-neutral behavior and/or made restrictive assumptions about underlying price probability distributions. In this study, we solve the optimal on-farm storage problem for a risk-averse farmer under more general assumptions about underlying price distributions. The resulting model is applied to Michigan corn farmers and findings show, contrary to the "sell all or nothing" risk-neutral rule, risk-averse farmers will spread sales out over the storage season. As farmers become more risk averse, the optimal strategy is to sell more grain at harvest and spread sales over the storage season, even though this practice reduces expected return. This result is more consistent with observed... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Grain storage; Risk aversion; Stochastic dynamic programming; Agribusiness. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31063 |
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| Mason, Nicole M.; Myers, Robert J.. |
| This policy synthesis estimates the effects of the Zambia Food Reserve Agency’s (FRA) activities on maize market prices in the country. The FRA, a government parastatal strategic food reserve/maize marketing board, buys maize at a pan-territorial price that typically exceeds wholesale market prices in major maize producing areas. It then exports the maize or sells it domestically at prices determined by tender, at auction, or administratively. In deficit production years, the Agency often imports maize and sells it to select large-scale millers at below-market prices. |
| Tipo: Technical Report |
Palavras-chave: Zambia; Maize; Food Security; Agricultural and Food Policy; Food Security and Poverty. |
| Ano: 2011 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120766 |
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| Myers, Robert J.; Piggott, Roley R.; Tomek, William G.. |
| Vector autoregression (VAR) methods are used to analyse the contribution of supply, demand and policy shocks to unpredictable fluctuations in the market for Australian wool. VAR procedures are compared with conventional structural econometric models as methods for decomposing sources of instability. While each has advantages and disadvantages, VAR procedures might be viewed as preferable when the underlying market structure is complex and uncertain, as it is in the case of wool. Based on the results obtained, demand shocks are the dominant source of uncertainty in the wool market in the absence of Australian Wool Corporation intervention, but intervention has blunted their effects, reducing market uncertainty and increasing the average level of prices and... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis. |
| Ano: 1990 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22357 |
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| Robison, Lindon J.; Myers, Robert J.; Siles, Marcelo E.. |
| Social capital, a person or group's sympathy or sense of obligation for another person or group, assumes relationships can alter the terms of trade and the likelihood of trades between individuals. Other important economic consequences of social capital result from its ability to internalize externalities. This paper introduces social capital into the neoclassical model to derive forecasts of how relationships will alter the minimum-sell prices of farmland and the likelihood of trades between persons with different relationships. Also deduced in this paper is the effect of social capital on the level and dispersion of benefits from trade. Empirical evidence from a 1,500 farmland owner-operator survey is analyzed and provides support for the social... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Institutional and Behavioral Economics; International Relations/Trade. |
| Ano: 1999 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/11546 |
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| Lai, Jing-Yi; Myers, Robert J.; Hanson, Steven D.. |
| Most previous research on post-harvest grain storage by farmers has assumed risk-neutral behavior and/or made restrictive assumptions about underlying price probability distributions. In this study we solve the optimal post-harvest storage problem for a risk averse farmer under more general assumptions about underlying price distributions. The resulting model is applied to Michigan corn farmers and results show that, contrary to the sell all-or-nothing risk-neutral rule, risk averse farmers will spread sales out over the storage season. The optimal pattern for sales by Michigan corn farmers is to sell approximately 50% of corn at harvest in November (a risk-reduction strategy) and approximately 40% in May (a return-enhancing strategy). |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2001 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/11739 |
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| Mason, Nicole M.; Chapoto, Antony; Jayne, Thomas S.; Myers, Robert J.. |
| 1. Consistent with the New Variant Famine (NVF) hypothesis, the negative impact of drought on crop output and output per hectare is further exacerbated where HIV prevalence rates are relatively high, particularly in the low- and medium rainfall zones of the country (agro-ecological regions I and II). 2. HIV prevalence rates and AIDS-related mortality rates in Zambia are highest in the lowest rainfall and most drought-prone zone of the country (agro-ecological region I). 3. Only for districts in agro-ecological region I do we find evidence of a robust negative effect of HIV/AIDS on agrarian livelihood indicators. Relatively stable food production zones and/or areas with relatively low HIV prevalence rates appear to be less vulnerable to the adverse effects... |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Food security; Food policy; Zambia; HIV/AIDS; Food Security and Poverty; Health Economics and Policy; Q20. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54629 |
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| Nyambane, Gerald G.; Hanson, Steven D.; Myers, Robert J.; Black, J. Roy. |
| The vast majority of previous studies on farmers' optimal risk management behavior have used static models and on the most part ignored use of borrowing and lending as an alternative method of managing risk In this paper we develop a stylized multi-period risk management model for a risk averse farmer who can use revenue insurance to manage risk and also borrow and lend subject to a credit constraint. The model is applied to an example farm from Adair County in Iowa and the results provide three important messages. First, contrary to the full coverage of actuarially fair insurance result expected from using purely static analysis, at low revenues, insurance coverage may not be taken in the absence of debt. Second, if debt is available, full coverage will... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2002 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19072 |
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| Hanson, Steven D.; Myers, Robert J.; Hilker, James H.. |
| Many agricultural producers face cash price distributions that are effectively truncated at a lower limit through participation in farm programs designed to support farm prices and incomes. For example, the 1996 Federal Agricultural Improvement Act (FAIR) makes many producers eligible to obtain marketing loans which truncate their cash price realization at the loan rate, while allowing market prices to freely equilibrate supply and demand. This paper studies the effects of truncated cash price distributions on the optimal use of futures and options. The results show that truncation in the cash price distribution facing an individual producer provides incentives to trade options as well as futures. We derive optimal futures and options trading rules under... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Farm programs; Futures; Hedging; Options; Truncation; Marketing. |
| Ano: 1999 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15152 |
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| Registros recuperados: 31 | |
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