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| Shakur, Shamim; Obben, James; Nugroho, Agus Eko. |
| The theory of exchange rate determination clearly links a depreciating currency to a deteriorating trade balance, interest differential and related economic fundamentals. Empirical testing carried out routinely confirms these relationships in “normal” times as currencies constantly align themselves to find their places in the global marketplace. When depreciation reaches crisis proportions, they are not always caused by a proportional deterioration in economic fundamentals. Random activities like speculative attacks are prompted by perceived problems in the banking sector as well as the contagion effect, leading to a currency crisis. Using pre crisis data and focusing on the Indonesian rupiah, this view is confirmed in the research. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Currency Crisis; Indonesia; Exchange Rate; Financial Economics; F31; F41. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50271 |
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| Obben, James; Nugroho, Agus Eko. |
| Illiquidity is at the core of the various currency and banking/financial crises of the 1990s. In the wake of the Asian crisis of 1997/98 the term "systemic liquidity" has been coined to refer to adequate arrangements and practices which permit efficient liquidity management and which provide a buffer during financial distress. A constructed balance-sheet-based variable that captures the essence of the risk from systemic liquidity is funding volatility ratio, FVR. Using data covering January 1990 to July 2003 and employing cointegration techniques, this study attempts to quantify the purported link between FVR and the measurable determinants of a balanced liquidity infrastructure for Indonesia, the country that suffered the most from the Asian crisis. A... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Autoregressive distributed lag model; Cointegration; Funding volatility ratio; Systemic liquidity; Financial Economics; C22. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23700 |
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| Xayavong, Vilaphonh; Gounder, Rukmani; Obben, James. |
| This paper re-examines the theoretical aid-growth nexus by expounding on the issues relating to policies designed for aid delivery and the lack of aid recipient's state institutional capability to enforce policy conditionality. Two propositions have been demonstrated to explain why policy conditionality attached to aid might not always promote sustainable economic growth in Least Developed Countries. First, the model has simulated that a stable aid flow contributes to economic growth even when aid is fungible. Second, the model has also simulated that unstable aid inflow impairs the favourable effect of stable aid inflow. It is suggested that the contribution of aid to economic growth depends not only on the ability of aid to increase investment in the... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Foreign Aid; Economic Growth; Policies; State Institutions; Food Security and Poverty; D72; D9; F35; H30. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23704 |
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