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Assessing Price Forecasting Models for Organic Commodities Organic Eprints
Gubanova, Tatiana; Escalante, Cesar; Lohr, Luanne; Park, Timothy.
This project develops price forecasting models to guide organic commodity marketing decisions. Forecasting models for organic commodity prices at the farm level are specified and tested using a comprehensive national farm price series data set collected for organic commodities in the United States. A framework for testing the predictive ability of competing models using conditional predictive ability is developed. Forecast performance is evaluated using the root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) for point forecast comparison along with tests for market timing ability of the forecasting model.
Tipo: Conference paper, poster, etc. Palavras-chave: Markets and trade.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://orgprints.org/4228/3/Gubanova_etal_4p_revised%2Ded.doc
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The Impact of Labor and Hiring Decisions on the Performance of U.S. Organic Farms Organic Eprints
Lohr, Luanne; Park, Timothy.
An increased emphasis on the viability and growth of local food systems which reduce "food miles" has promoted efforts encouraging farmers and processors to sell and distribute food products to local consumers. The elasticity of complementarity is used to predict adjustments in relative wage payments if organic farmers commit to local selling. We use comprehensive U.S. data on organic practices to show that a commitment to local sales leads to lower organic farm incomes. Policies that promote a shift to local sales would lead to decreased use of seasonal workers and higher wages for seasonal workers with smaller adjustments in the wages of year-round workers.
Tipo: Conference paper, poster, etc. Palavras-chave: Farm economics.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://orgprints.org/12342/1/Lohr_12342_ed.doc
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