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| Rochet, Marie-joelle; Rice, Jake C.. |
| Simulation-based management strategy evaluations are increasingly developed and used for science advice in support of fisheries management, along with risk evaluation and decision analysis. These methods tackle the problem of uncertainty in fisheries systems and data by modelling uncertainty in two ways. For quantities that are difficult to measure accurately or are inherently variable, variables are replaced by probability distributions, and system dynamics are simulated by Monte Carlo simulations, drawing numbers from these distributions. For processes that are not fully understood, arrays of model formulations that might underlie the observed patterns are developed, each is assumed successively, and the results of the corresponding arrays of model... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Uncertainty; Risk estimates; Monte Carlo simulation; Management strategy evaluation. |
| Ano: 2009 |
URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2009/publication-6361.pdf |
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| Rochet, Marie-joelle; Rice, Jake C.. |
| Simulation-based management strategy evaluation is a valuable tool, when appropriately implemented. Implementation, however, may not always have been appropriate, and some reasons are provided why perhaps there is incomplete faith in certain of its technical aspects, such as knowing the distribution of the parameters of population processes from the information in limited datasets. A management strategy that has been evaluated by simulation should not be used as an "autopilot", because even the most competent of experts can develop autopilots with imperfect and incomplete knowledge of reality, and all information should be incorporated when decisions have to be made. |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Decision-making; Distribution models; Management strategy evaluation. |
| Ano: 2010 |
URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00002/11278/7922.pdf |
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