| FROM ALL ACCOUNTS, the intense 1997-98 c impacted most regions in the world shown to be historically sensitive to these events following text-book rules. South Africa appears to be the exception. The original forecast gave a 77% chance of catastrophic drought for the past summer in Southern Africa (Farmers Weekly, April 17 1998). The impact, turned out, was mixed. Three-quarters of South Africa experienced drought while the eastern part had 40% more rain that normal! The South Coast lies between the western winter rainfall region of the country and the eastern summer rainfall region. The question is, what influence did El Niño have on this twix zone, and, in particular, the South Coast based squid fishery? |
