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| Registros recuperados: 96 | |
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| Li, NaiChia; Roe, Terry L.. |
| The maintained hypotheses embodied in structural general equilibrium models calibrated to data have tended to make economists and policy makers insecure regarding their empirical foundation. Advances in dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) theory and its empirical application have exacerbated this insecurity since the forecasts provide by these models brings questions of validation to the forefront. Here, methods are developed to measure the magnitude of bias in DGE forecasts that are simple to implement. We adopted the concordance correlation measure, and introduced a time function method to assess the bias in DGE forecasts. A time-series confidence interval method is also introduced to formally judge the "good" forecasts from the "bad". A calibrated DGE... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21325 |
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| Irz, Xavier T.; Roe, Terry L.. |
| This paper develops a two-sector model of growth where agriculture is considered explicitly. Key features of the model include: the reliance of agricultural production on a fixed but degrading resource base, the use by the farm sector of industrially produced inputs and differing rates of technological progress in the two sectors. On the demand side, the low income elasticity for food as well as the life-sustaining function of food consumption are recognized. In this simplified framework, the sustainability of growth can be related to the existence of a steady state reflecting the ability of the economy to feed its population. This property is used to identify the characteristics within and outside of agriculture conducive to the sustainability of a... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Sustainability; Agriculture and growth; Dynamic general equilibrium model; International Development; O41; O13; F11. |
| Ano: 2000 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21762 |
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| Guyomard, Herve; Mahe, Louis Adrien Pascal; Roe, Terry L.; Tarditi, Secondo. |
| Reform of the Common Agricultural Policy has entailed the substitution of new income support instruments for the former price based instruments, mainly in the cash crop sector. Our first point is that the domestic political balance was unable to generate such a large change in policy design, in spite of inefficiencies and inbalances. The pressure of the US has been a major factor in the design of the reform. We argue that trade interests have been crucial to catalyze international collective action in order to countervail domestic pressure groups. The pursuit of an agreement in the GATT is therefore a means to place a cap on the CAP and foster some reform and control over sectors such as sugar and dairy in other countries. We do not foresee the... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy. |
| Ano: 1993 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14432 |
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| Antonovitz, Frances; Roe, Terry L.. |
| The theory of the competitive firm under price uncertainty is used to develop a money metric of a producer's willingness to pay for additional information. This concept is extended to the market by formulating ex-ante and ex-post measures of the value of a rational expectations forecast. The empirical feasibility of these measures are demonstrated by application to a simple two equation model of an agricultural market. |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 1984 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/13467 |
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| Roe, Terry L.; Yeldan, A. Erinc. |
| The paper develops a formal model of government's economic decisions as influenced by private agents within the context of neoclassical political economy. The government is assumed to form preferences over interest groups in the economy; in turn these preferences are influenced by the rent seeking behavior of these groups. An open, two-household, two-sector general equilibrium model is constructed to depict an environment in which preference-maximizing (rational) individuals allocate otherwise productive labor to directly unproductive rent seeking activities in order to exert political pressure on the government's choice of policy instruments. With the aid of five comparative-static experiments, the game-theoretic component and the second-best nature of... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Political Economy. |
| Ano: 1988 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7499 |
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| Munisamy, Gopinath; Roe, Terry L.. |
| Growth in US agriculture is linked to the non-farm economy through domestic terms of trade and factor market adjustments. With almost stable input growth, the relatively large contributions from growth in Total Factor Productivity (TFP) are off-set by declining real prices of primary farm products. The resulting net growth in value of farm output, at 0.25 % per annum, implies that the gains in TFP are shared by intermediate and final consumers of farm products. The decomposition of TFP suggests that public agricultural stock of knowledge and infrastructure are 'robustly' associated with TFP growth, while spill-overs from private agricultural and economy wide Research and Development (R&D) are positive but, relatively small. |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: International Development. |
| Ano: 1995 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7454 |
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| Roe, Terry L.; Shane, Mathew; Heerman, Kari. |
| This paper explores the emergence of large current account imbalances in a few large countries, the factors behind the emergence, the role of those imbalances in the financial crisis of 2008-09, and the implications of achieving global balance. Imbalances reflect a country’s net savings and suggest that growth in GDP of a surplus country is partly dependent upon growth in external demand of deficit countries. Although a country can incur a surplus or deficit for ever, we suggest that the increasing surpluses of relatively large and rapidly growing countries is likely to be destabilizing to global growth in the long-run. The adjustment will likely require a surplus country, such as China, to rely more on domestic demand for growth while a deficit country,... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade. |
| Ano: 2011 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/109244 |
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| Mohtadi, Hamid; Roe, Terry L.. |
| A simple two-sector endogenous growth model of government spending and growth is developed with a producing and a lobbying sector. Lobbyists divert government spending for private gains. One key innovation is this: With democratization, information (and power) becomes more diffused (public), allowing more lobbyists to lobby but reducing gains per lobbyist. Thus, aggregate rents rise with the number of lobbyists but fall with increasing competition among them. This simple mechanism produces a "U" curve in which growth falls with early democratization but rises later, and a related "inverted U" curve in which rents rise with early democratization but fall later. Extensive empirical test of the interrelationship between growth, government spending,... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: International Development; Political Economy. |
| Ano: 1997 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7485 |
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| Roe, Terry L.; Somwaru, Agapi; Diao, Xinshen. |
| The question whether production flexibility payments to farmers are likely to be minimally trade distorting is considered in an inter-temporal and economy wide context. Our contribution lies in showing the circumstances, over time, under which a minimally trade distorting result is likely to obtain. If agricultural capital markets are complete, we find that payments have long run effects on land values and land rental rates, but they have no effect on production. If capital markets are not complete, we find production effects, but they are small (0.2 percent) in the short run and disappear in the long-run. The only permanent effects are on land rental rates and land values that increase by about 10 percent in the short run tapering off to slightly above 8... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance. |
| Ano: 2002 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16308 |
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| Diao, Xinshen; Elbasha, Elamin H.; Roe, Terry L.; Yeldan, A. Erinc. |
| An R&D based endogenous growth - applied general equilibrium model is developed from an underlying analytical model which combines Romer's capital variety with Grossman and Helpman's multi-sector open economy model. The transitional dynamics of the analytical model are derived. For numerical implementation, a time discrete empirical model, with an Armington structure, is fit to East Asian data of the social accounting matrix variety. Simulations of trade reform are performed and their static and dynamic effects compared. The transition paths of the state variables are found to have a half-life of five to six periods. A solution of the Social Planner's problem, and interventions which seek to obtain this outcome from the decentralized model are also... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Applied General Equilibrium; Trade; Growth; International Relations/Trade; F11; 031; 041. |
| Ano: 1996 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7461 |
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| Irz, Xavier T.; Roe, Terry L.. |
| This paper develops a two-sector growth model incorporating the essential distinguishing features of agriculture, including the reliance of production on a natural resource base as well as on industrially produced inputs, the low income elasticity of demand for food and the life-sustaining function of food consumption. In this framework, the ability of an economy to supply an adequate supply of food to a growing population can be related to the existence of a steady state. This property is used to define a simple analytical criterion upon which to assess the long-term food situation of a closed economy. This sustainability condition relates all the dynamic parameters of the economy: rates of technological change in the two sectors, rate of population... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Food Security and Poverty. |
| Ano: 2000 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54213 |
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| Sexauer, Benjamin; Roe, Terry L.; Kinsey, Jean D.. |
| The model in this paper integrates the possibility of misinformation into consumer utility theory. If the utility realized from a good differs from the utility anticipated at time of purchase, shifts in demand would occur, and thus changes in consumer surplus. These changes provide a measure of the cost of misinformation or value of improved information. The empirical analysis yields estimates of the private and social cost of inaccuracies in automobile buyers; pre-purchase mileage estimates. If automobile purchases are based on imperfect gasoline mileage information, a discrepancy results between expected and actual fuel-efficiency. The data source is a survey of 1980 model car buyers conducted by the authors. |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Consumer/Household Economics. |
| Ano: 1981 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14056 |
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| Roe, Terry L.; Shane, Mathew; Somwaru, Agapi. |
| The share of resources allocated to food marketed through supermarkets and their marketing channels has grown at an unprecedented rate in lower income countries during the 1990s. The implication is that the evolution of supermarkets cannot be viewed in isolation of the broader economic general equilibrium forces giving rise to a middle class, nor can this process be viewed in a static context. Our dynamic model captures, in an obviously aggregative way, the marketing channels that require resources to: assemble inputs for farmers, produce raw agricultural output, assemble, process and add value to, and market the final products to retail establishments in the long run. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19112 |
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| Ballenger, Nicole; McClatchy, Don; de Filippis, Fabrizio; Mercier, Stephanie; Dixit, Praveen M.; Miner, William M.; Guyomard, Herve; Roe, Terry L.; Hertel, Thomas W.; Rossmiller, George Edward; Johnson, Martin; Sharples, Jerry A.; Josling, Timothy E.; Tsigas, Marinos E.; Mahe, Louis Adrien Pascal. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade. |
| Ano: 1990 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49867 |
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| Registros recuperados: 96 | |
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