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Impact of Russia and Ukraine on the international price formation and the EU markets - A Model based analysis AgEcon
Banse, Martin; Salamon, Petra; Ledebur, Oliver von; van Leeuwen, Myrna; Bouma, Foppe; Salputra, Guna; Fellmann, Thomas; Nekhay, Olexandr.
This paper examines the effect of the future developments of Russian and Ukrainian agricultural sectors and their impact on the world market prices for arable crops. Employed in the study is AGMEMOD, a partial equilibrium economic model of EU agriculture at the Member State level that has been extended by Russia and Ukraine to gain quantitative insights. Vital for the project has also been the integration of an endogenous world market price module including a stylized Rest of the World (ROW) model. In Russia and Ukraine, there is a strong focus on plant production in general and on grain based animal production; Russia and Ukraine are mostly net-exports of those products. Under the baseline, in Russia prices for crops and oilseeds are below the world...
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Partial equilibrium model; Price formation; Russia; Ukraine; Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122536
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EU ENLARGEMENT TO TURKEY: POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURAL MARKETS AND HOW THEY ARE SHAPED BY CHANGES IN MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS AgEcon
Fellmann, Thomas; van Leeuwen, Myrna; Salamon, Petra.
The potential accession of Turkey to the EU, and the related adoption of the CAP by Turkey, is expected to influence agricultural markets in both the EU and Turkey. The extent of the accession impacts depends on the one hand on the way the CAP will be implemented in Turkey, while on the other hand impacts are expected to be also shaped by macroeconomic conditions (like exchange rates, GDP growth and inflation levels). In this paper we provide a comprehensive model-based assessment of the potential impacts on agricultural markets of a Turkish accession to the EU. We first assess the impacts under the assumption of standard macroeconomic projections, then we analyse how a different TL/Euro exchange rate, a doubling of the Turkish inflation rate or a doubling...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Turkey; EU enlargement; Agricultural markets; Macro economy; AGMEMOD Zusammenfassung; Türkei; EU Erweiterung; Agrarmärkte; Makroökonomie; AGMEMOD; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114507
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Linking Large Numbers of Individual National Models: The Case of the AGMEMOD Partnership AgEcon
Salamon, Petra; Chantreuil, Frederic; Donnellan, Trevor; Erjavec, Emil; Esposti, Roberto; Hanrahan, Kevin F.; van Leeuwen, Myrna; Salputra, Guna.
The AGMEMOD Partnership seeks to capture the inherent heterogeneity of the agricultural systems existing by combining individual country models of 27 EU Member States and several accession countries into one single model while still maintaining analytical consistency. Although this approach facilitates the comparison of the impact of a policy across different Member States, it generates challenges in practical implementation, ranging from high communication and administration requirements to aggregation and consistency issues. This contribution provides insights into the different challenges posed to the scientists and discusses the key issues for maintenance and further development of such a complex system. Specific attention is paid to technical devices...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Linking Models; Policy Analysis; Partial Equilibrium Modelling; Common Agricultural Policy (CAP); Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43539
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MODELLING IMPACTS OF SOME EUROPEAN BIOFUEL MEASURES AgEcon
Ledebur, Oliver von; Salamon, Petra; Zimmermann, Andrei; van Leeuwen, Myrna; Tabeau, Andrzej A.; Chantreuil, Frederic.
Against the background of increasing concerns regarding the energy supply security as well as environmental concern the interest for renewable energy sources has increased in recent years. The biofuel sector, backed by public policies, experienced a strong increase in and outside Europe. A methodology that allows for the estimation of the impacts of the fulfilment of the proposed biofuel targets in the EU member states is proposed and implemented in the AGMEMOD model for France and Germany. The so called normative approach, based on the use of a logistic function as biofuel demand function allows to perform simulations to assess the impact of the biofuel demand expansion on agricultural markets. The implemented approach and the simulation results indicate...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Biofuel targets; Biodiesel; Ethanol; Modelling; Crop Production/Industries; Public Economics; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6649
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EINE LOGIT-ANALYSE ZUR DIFFERENZIERUNG VON KÄUFERN UND NICHT-KÄUFERN VON SCHULMILCH IN DEUTSCHLAND AgEcon
Peter, Guenter; Salamon, Petra; Christoph, Inken B.; Weible, Daniela; Burgelt, Doreen.
Vor dem Hintergrund eines sinkenden Schulmilchkonsums in Deutschland stellt sich generell die Frage, welche Faktoren für die Kaufentscheidung von Schulmilch wichtig sind und, ob unterschiedliche Konsummuster für einzelne Gruppen existieren. Dieser Beitrag erweitert bestehende ökonometrische Erklärungsansätze um Schüler- und Haushaltscharakteristika. Dazu werden auf der Grundlage der Discrete Choice-Theorie zwei Konsummuster, die Gruppe der Schulmilchbesteller und die Gruppe der Nicht-Besteller, betrachtet. Mit Hilfe eines Logit-Modells werden Einflussfaktoren analysiert, die über das Konsummuster entscheiden. Als wichtige Faktoren kristallisieren sich die befürwortenden und ablehnenden Einstellungen der Schulkinder und ihrer Eltern gegenüber Milch und...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Schulmilch; Logit-Modell; Nachfrageanalyse; School milk; Logit model; Demand analysis; Agribusiness.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/115358
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How to deal with the challenges of linking a large number of individual national models: the case of the AGMEMOD Partnership AgEcon
Salamon, Petra; Chantreuil, Frederic; Donnellan, Trevor; Erjavec, Emil; Esposti, Roberto; Hanrahan, Kevin F.; van Leeuwen, Myrna; Bouma, Foppe; Dol, Wietse; Salputra, Guna.
The AGMEMOD Partnership seeks to capture the inherent existing heterogeneity of agricultural systems by linking together individual EU Member State models, an aggregated EU model and several accession countries into one single model, while still maintaining analytical consistency. Although this approach facilitates the comparison of the impact of a policy change across different Member States, it generates challenges in practical implementation, ranging from significant communication and administration requirements, to aggregation and consistency issues. This contribution provides insights into the different challenges posed to the scientists and discusses the key issues for maintenance and further development of such a complex system. Specific attention...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Linking models; Policy analysis; Partial equilibrium modelling; Common Agricultural Policy (CAP); Agricultural and Food Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97709
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How to Derive Market Impacts of the Luxembourg Agreement on the German Beef Market - A Synthetic Uniform Model versus an Econometric Country Specific Model AgEcon
Salamon, Petra.
The paper discusses two partial equilibrium models, one is a synthetic model (GAPsi) and the other an econometrically estimated model (AG-MEMOD). While the synthetic model incorporates only price impacts and some shifts, the econometric model also reflects other influencing factors. Price formation includes policy measures as price wedges, or as explaining variables in key price equations or price transmission equations, which is also true when premiums and decoupling are regarded. When the Luxembourg Agreement is simulated, our example of beef shows that these model differences induce deviations in model results, especially concerning prices and trade.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Partial equilibrium model; CAP; Luxembourg Agreement; Projections; Econometric estimation; Agricultural and Food Policy; Q11; Q18.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24570
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WTO Agricultural Negotiations: A Comparison of the Harbinson Proposal and the Swiss Formula AgEcon
Brockmeier, Martina; Kurzweil, Marianne; Pelikan, Janine; Salamon, Petra.
The WTO agricultural negotiations of the Doha round are a key issue in the public debate. This paper analyses the effects of different options to improve market-access on the basis of a GTAP model, comparing the impact of the Harbinson proposal and the Swiss formula on trade balances. An extended version of the GTAP model is used to first project a base run that includes factors arising from Agenda 2000, EU enlargement, the EBA agreement and the EU's mid-term review. The policy simulation run additionally includes the WTO negotiations. Here, the model is differentiated between three experiments. While the first experiment simply implements the Harbinson proposal, the second one additionally takes into account an adoption of the EBA agreement by all...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25133
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Der Markt für Milch AgEcon
Salamon, Petra.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98695
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Renewable energy - new forces in global ethanol trade? AgEcon
Salamon, Petra; Ledebur, Oliver von; Elmahdi, Kamal; Klepper, Rainer.
The paper presents an extended gravity equation application for the global trade with ethanol. The background and different attempts for a theoretical foundation of the standard approach are discussed. The econometric work takes regional integration schemes into account, as well as the influence of the production factor agricultural land and the level of oil prices on the world market. Results indicate that global bilateral trade flows of ethanol can be explained by a set of comprehensive explanatory variables, including regional agreements and the price level of oil. From a global perspective the EU effect on trade flows is trade diverting as the regional agreement reduces the linkage to world markets and increases the intra-regional level of trade with...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Gravity equation; Bilateral trade flows; Trade with renewable energy; Biofuels; And econometric estimation; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10045
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EU ENLARGEMENT - A NEW DIMENSION AgEcon
Brockmeier, Martina; Herok, Claudia Anna; Ledebur, Oliver von; Salamon, Petra.
Enlarging the EU presents a tremendous effort with obstacles for old and new member states especially in the agricultural sector. In this paper, impacts of a new accession round were analyzed with the help of the comparative-static general equilibrium model GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project). The standard version was extended to allow for a better representation of specific instruments of the Common Agriculture Policy and the EU budget. To capture detailed effects in new member states, simulations were carried out for 12 candidate countries, the EU-15 and the rest of the world. As for products the focus lies on agriculture. Scenarios include an enlargement with and without the transfer of direct payments in the new member states, according to the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: EU enlargement; Common Agricultural Policy; EU budget; GE-modeling; Political Economy; D58; E62; F15; O52; Q18.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25893
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SCHOOL MILK DEMAND – INTERACTION BETWEEN POLICY AND OTHER FACTORS: SOME PRELIMINARY FINDINGS OF A REGIONAL PROJECT AgEcon
Christoph, Inken B.; Peter, Guenter; Rothe, Andrea; Salamon, Petra; Weber, Sascha A.; Weible, Daniela.
Given the recent steadily declining consumption of school milk in Germany, a research project was set up by the German Federal Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Consumer Protection, in affiliation with other institutions, to retrieve quantifiable information on the different influencing factors and to provide approaches for improving the school milk demand. Main objectives are to evaluate impacts of factors like price, attitudes and habits (especially consumption habits), social background, gender, economic situation, knowledge, product range and distribution form, as well as of nutritional education measures. Primary schools in North Rhine Westphalia were selected by stratified random sampling. Price impacts are derived by an experiment in which the price...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: School milk; Demand subsidy; Price experiment; Multilevel analysis; Agricultural and Food Policy; Consumer/Household Economics; Demand and Price Analysis; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Health Economics and Policy; C02.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/116415
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Sinkende Schulmilchnachfrage in Deutschland -- Woran kann es liegen? AgEcon
Gonzalez-Mellado, Aida A.; Christoph, Inken B.; Salamon, Petra; Peter, Guenter; Weber, Sascha A.; Weible, Daniela.
I A1_1
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Schulmilch; Einflussfaktoren; Nachfrage; Preise; Beihilfe; Multilevel-Analyse; Consumer/Household Economics; Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/93931
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DER EUROPAISCHE MILCHMARKT ZWISCHEN REFORM UND LIBERALISIERUNG AgEcon
Salamon, Petra; Ledebur, Oliver von.
Im Beitrag werden die Auswirkungen der Implementierung des MTR und der Abschaffung aller Exportsubventionen im Rahmen der Doha-Runde der WTO mit einem besonderen Augenmerk auf die Effekte im Milchsektor untersucht. Dazu werden Simulationen mit einem partiellen Marktmodell durchgeführt. Alle Milchprodukte einschließlich Rohmilch erfahren Preissenkungen, teilweise deutlich. Erwartungsgemäß sind die Auswirkungen der kombinierten Simulation von MTR und partieller Liberalisierung ausgeprägter als eine reine MTR Simulation. Variationsrechnungen bei dem besonders betroffenen Marktprodukt Butter verdeutlichen, dass bei zusätzlichen hohen Zollkürzungen der Nettoimport steigt.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14965
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EU-Trade Agreements - What Are They Dealing With? AgEcon
Kurzweil, Marianne; Ledebur, Oliver von; Salamon, Petra.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25144
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Expansion of Mercosur's Agricultural Exports to the EU: An Empirical Assessment of the Trade Flows AgEcon
Niemi, Jyrki S.; Huan-Niemi, Ellen; Ledebur, Oliver von; Salamon, Petra.
This paper provides new evidence on income and price elasticities of demand for agricultural exports from Mercosur countries to the EU. Econometric models are constructed for eight agricultural commodities - beef, cocoa, coffee, orange juice, poultry, sugar, soya and wheat - exported from Mercosur to the EU. A modelling approach based on the error correction mechanism is used in order to emphasise the importance of the dynamics of trade functions. The results indicate that there is a relatively weak demand response to income and price changes in the EU. However, the results also suggest that relative-price variations affect significantly the demand for Mercosur commodity exports, implying that the exporter's market share is influenced by price...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural trade; European Union; Mercosur; Econometric models; Cointegration; International Relations/Trade; C22; Q17.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24606
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Economic background of families – is it vital for food decisions? A case study of school milk orders in Germany AgEcon
Weible, Daniela; Buergelt, Doreen; Christoph, Inken B.; Peter, Guenter; Salamon, Petra.
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/123985
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EU Dairy Quota Reform – AGMEMOD Scenario Analysis AgEcon
Chantreuil, Frederic; Donnellan, Trevor; van Leeuwen, Myrna; Salamon, Petra; Tabeau, Andrzej A.; Bartova, Lubica.
This study provides an in-depth model based quantitative analysis of the implications of the dairy policy reform on the milk and dairy market as well as on other agricultural markets in the EU27, EU15, EU12 and the individual MS. The objectives of the study are threefold: 1. to assess the implications of changing policy and market conditions on EU agriculture with special emphasis on milk quota phasing out and export subsidy removal by using a modelling tool; 2. to carry out policy relevant scenarios reflecting deregulation (e.g. quota abolition), changes in quota and price levels, different types and levels of direct payments; and 3. to analyse the implications of policy reform scenarios and to draw appropriate policy recommendations. Based on an overview...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Milk Quota; Policy Analysis; Partial Equilibrium Modelling.; Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43655
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School milk demand in Germany: The role of individual and contextual factors - preliminary results AgEcon
Weible, Daniela; Burgelt, Doreen; Christoph, Inken B.; Peter, Guenter; Rothe, Andrea; Salamon, Petra; Weber, Sascha A..
Replaced with revised version of paper 12/01/11.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/115739
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Agricultural Market Performance in the EU after the 2000 and 2003 CAP Reform An Ex-post Evaluation based on AGMEMOD AgEcon
Banse, Martin; van Leeuwen, Myrna; Tabeau, Andrzej A.; Salamon, Petra; Ledebur, Oliver von.
The paper investigates the CAP impacts on the EU agriculture by means of policy simulations conducted with the AGMEMOD model. To isolate the policy effects in the historical period 2000-2005, counterfactual simulations for this period are run. To simulate the response of the EU agriculture on different policy changes in the period 2006-2020, a ‘no-policy change’ baseline scenario is developed and then policy experiments are conducted such as the abolition of milk quota, the implementation of the regional payments and some budget cuts. To identify the policy effects, the policy scenarios are compared with the ‘no-policy change’ baseline.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: CAP Reform; Ex-post evaluation; Agricultural sector modelling; Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/99366
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