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JOINT MODELING AND SIMULATION OF AUTOCORRELATED NON-NORMAL TIME SERIES: AN APPLICATION TO RISK AND RETURN ANALYSIS AgEcon
Ramirez, Octavio A.; Somarriba, Eduardo.
This study presents a technique that can jointly model and simulate the expected values, variances, and covariances of sets of correlated time-series dependent variables that are autocorrelated and non-normal (right or left skewed and/or kurtotic). It illustrates the method by applying it to risk analysis of diversified tropical agroforestry systems.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21564
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RISK AND RETURNS OF DIVERSIFIED CROPPING SYSTEMS UNDER NONNORMAL, CROSS-, AND AUTOCORRELATED COMMODITY PRICE STRUCTURES AgEcon
Ramirez, Octavio A.; Somarriba, Eduardo.
This study analyzes the risks of diversified tropical cropping systems that combine cocoa, plantain, and tree-crop components in different proportions versus traditional monocultures. A technique for modeling the expected values, variances, and covariances of correlated time-series variables that are autocorrelated and nonnormal (right or left skewed and kurtotic) is applied to simulate commodity prices. The importance of using simulated cumulative density functions (cdf's) which reflect the most important characteristics of the stochastic behavior of prices for analyzing risk and returns of diversified agricultural systems is demonstrated. The analysis priovides evidence in favor of diversified cocoa-plantain-Cordia agroforestry system technologies...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30901
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