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Registros recuperados: 5
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Switching to Perennial Energy Crops under Uncertainty and Costly Reversibility AgEcon
Song, Feng; Zhao, Jinhua; Swinton, Scott M..
We study a farmer’s decision to convert traditional crop land into growing dedicated energy crops, taking in account sunk conversion costs, uncertainties in traditional and energy crop returns, and learning. The optimal decision rules differ significantly from the expected net present value rule, which ignores learning, and from real option models that allow only one way conversions into energy crops. These models also predict drastically different patterns of land conversions into and out of energy crops over time. Using corn-soybean rotations and switchgrass as examples, we show that the model predictions are sensitive to assumptions about stochastic processes of the returns. Government policies might have unintended consequences: subsidizing conversion...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Real options; Irreversibility; Sunk costs; Land conversion; Biofuel; Cellulosic biomass; Dynamic modeling; Stochastic process; Biofuel policy; Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q42; Q24.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56195
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Alternative Land Use Policies: Real Options with Costly Reversibility AgEcon
Song, Feng; Zhao, Jinhua; Swinton, Scott M..
This paper adopts a real options framework to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of four types of subsidies that aim to encourage a socially desirable land use under return uncertainties and costly reversibility of land use change. We first present a land conversion model to show how the subsidies that are expected net present value (ENPV) equivalent can change a representative farmer’s optimal land conversion rules differently for converting land into an alternative use as well as converting out of it. This is because these subsidies affect the land conversion costs, land return level and uncertainty differently. Then in the context of encouraging energy crop production, we compare the probabilities of inducing the representative farmer to convert land from...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Monte Carlo simulations; Real options; Agricultural subsidies; Cost-effectiveness; Two-way land conversion; Agricultural and Food Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q24; Q48.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61510
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PROFITABILITY ANALYSIS OF SOYBEAN APHID CONTROL TREATMENTS IN THREE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES AgEcon
Song, Feng; Swinton, Scott M.; DiFonzo, Christina; O'Neal, Matthew; Ragsdale, David W..
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/11489
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Returns to Integrated Pest Management Research and Outreach for Soybean Aphid AgEcon
Song, Feng; Swinton, Scott M..
Soybean aphid is a major invasive pest that has caused major yield loss and increased insecticide use in the United States since its discovery in 2000. Using the economic surplus approach, we estimate the economic benefits of U.S. research and outreach for integrated pest management (IPM) of soybean aphid. We calculate ex ante net benefits from adoption of an IPM action threshold (AT). The AT triggers insecticide application only if the value of predicted yield damage from pest scouting is expected to exceed the cost of pest control. Our research finds that gradual adoption of AT-based IPM over the 15 years since soybean aphid IPM research began in 2003 generates a projected economic net benefit of $1.3 billion, for an internal rate of return of 140%....
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Q16.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6117
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Valuing Great Lakes Beaches AgEcon
Song, Feng; Lupi, Frank; Kaplowitz, Michael D..
This study aims to estimate the recreational use values of Great Lakes beaches using a two-level nested logit Random Utility Model. The choice set contains all 594 public Great Lakes beaches in Michigan. Beach sites located in the same Great Lakes water body are arranged into a nest. The trip data were obtained from a 2006 online survey using a web-panel of Michigan adults accessed through Survey Sampling International (SSI). The variables that affect the amount of utility derived from a particular site are the travel cost and site quality variables, which include beach length, days of beach advisory, and days of beach closure in 2006. We report the economic loss of permanently losing an individual beach site or a group of beach sites as well as benefits...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Great Lakes; Freshwater beaches; Non-market valuation; Travel costs model; Nested logit; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Q26; Q57.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61791
Registros recuperados: 5
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