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| Tokovenko, Oleksiy; Koo, Won W.. |
| This study investigates the effect of the economy structure on the U.S. - China bilateral trade deficit as alternative to the influence of the exchange rate fluctuation. The revealed comparative advantage indices are proposed as the measure of the relative structural differences between two countries due to factor endowments and technology. A Bayesian Stochastic Search Variable Selection method is applied to the U.S. - China annual trade data for 57 commodity groups at the SITC 2-digit industry aggregation level to obtain empirical variable inclusion probabilities. Based on the data, we found no conclusive evidence against the hypothesis of the short-run effect of either of the explanatory factors, while the long-run influence is revealed to be... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade. |
| Ano: 2011 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/104018 |
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| Tokovenko, Oleksiy; Gunter, Lewell F.. |
| The paper outlines an approach to estimation and analysis of the futures basis in the U.S. cotton market under weakly rational expectations. Given the model specification derived from the underlying dynamic profit optimization problem of the dealers, the intermediary market model is estimated using the self-organizing state-space (SOSS) approach. Estimation results are used to evaluate the prediction power of the method and test the main assumptions about the existence and consistency of the subjective rational expectations incorporated in the model. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6435 |
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| Tokovenko, Oleksiy; Dorfman, Jeffrey H.; Gunter, Lewell F.. |
| The paper presents a spatio-temporal statistical model of agricultural yield prediction based on spatial mixtures of distributions. The proposed method combines several hierarchical and sequential Bayesian estimation procedures that allow the general problem to be addressed with a series of simpler tasks, providing the required flexibility of the model while decreasing the complexity associated with the large dimensionality of the spatial data sets. The data used for the study are 1970 - 2009 annual Iowa state county level corn yield data. The spatial correlation hypothesis is studied by comparing the alternative models using the posterior predictive criterion under squared loss function. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Farm Management. |
| Ano: 2010 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61673 |
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