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| Registros recuperados: 29 | |
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| Schmit, Todd M.; Verteramo, Leslie J.; Tomek, William G.. |
| The relationship between complete-feed prices and commodity feedstock prices are estimated to analyze the effect of higher commodity prices on feed costs, with particular attention towards the price effects and substitutability of corn distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS). Assuming the historical positive correlation between corn and DDGS prices, each $1/ton increase in the price of corn increases per ton feed costs between $0.45 and $0.67 across livestock sectors. A negative price correlation would offset some of the cost increases, but under most scenarios feed costs are expected to be at or above those experienced in 2007. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37595 |
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| Wang, Dabin; Tomek, William G.. |
| Descriptive statistics and time-series econometric models are used to characterize the behavior of monthly fluid milk prices. Prices in April, May and June appear to be more variable than those in subsequent months, and the spring-time prices are perhaps skewed. Econometric models can capture the historical behavior of spot prices, but forecasts converge to the marginal distribution of the sample prices in about six months. Futures prices for Class III milk have the expected time-to-maturity effect and converge to the respective monthly distributions of the cash prices at contract maturity (as they must, since the contracts are cash settled). Thus, econometric models and futures quotes provide similar information about price behavior at contract... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Hedging; Marketing strategies; Milk futures; Milk prices; Risk management; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19322 |
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| Tomek, William G.; Kaiser, Harry M.. |
| It is possible to obtain robust estimates of structural parameters using observational data, but it is difficult to do so. Necessary, but not sufficient, conditions are to adopt a modeling philosophy and to undertake a comprehensive evaluation of the results. Using a general-to-specific modeling philosophy, we obtained stable estimates of the long-run advertising elasticity for fluid milk. This result contrasts with an earlier, published model which did not provide stable estimates as new data points became available. It is difficult, however, to apply the general-to-specific modeling approach because it requires the researcher to specify an initial general model. But analysts are unlikely to agree on this initial model, and if this is true, then the... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 1999 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14755 |
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| Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa; Tomek, William G.. |
| A rational expectations competitive storage model is applied to the U.S. corn market to assess the aptness of this framework in explaining monthly price behavior in an actual commodity market. Relative to previous models, extensive realism is added to the model in terms of how production activities and storage costs are specified. By modeling convenience yield, "backwardation" in prices between crop years does not depend on the unrealistic assumption of zero ending stocks. Our model produces cash prices that are distributed with positive skewness and kurtosis, and mean and variance that increase over the storage season, consistent with the persistence and the occasional spikes observed in commodity prices. Futures prices are generated as conditional... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis; Marketing. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30712 |
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| Myers, Robert J.; Piggott, Roley R.; Tomek, William G.. |
| Vector autoregression (VAR) methods are used to analyse the contribution of supply, demand and policy shocks to unpredictable fluctuations in the market for Australian wool. VAR procedures are compared with conventional structural econometric models as methods for decomposing sources of instability. While each has advantages and disadvantages, VAR procedures might be viewed as preferable when the underlying market structure is complex and uncertain, as it is in the case of wool. Based on the results obtained, demand shocks are the dominant source of uncertainty in the wool market in the absence of Australian Wool Corporation intervention, but intervention has blunted their effects, reducing market uncertainty and increasing the average level of prices and... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis. |
| Ano: 1990 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22357 |
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| Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa; Tomek, William G.. |
| A rational expectations storage model is used to simulate monthly corn prices, which are used to evaluate marketing strategies to manage price risk. The data are generated and analyzed in two formats: for long-run outcomes over 10,000 "years" of monthly prices and for 10,000 cases of 40-year "lifetimes." Three categories of strategies are analyzed: frequency of post-harvest cash sales, unconditional hedges, and conditional hedges. The comparisons are based on the simulated probability distributions of net returns. One conclusion is that diversifying cash sales, without hedging, is not an efficient means of risk management. Unhedged storage does not reduce risk and, on average, reduces returns. The analysis of the 40-year lifetimes demonstrates, however,... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2001 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18963 |
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| Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa; Tomek, William G.. |
| The choice of deflators of commodity prices can change the time-series properties of the original series. This is a specific application of the general phenomenon that various kinds of data transformations can create spurious cycles that did not exist in the original data. Different empirical models of expectations result from nominal and various deflated series that have distinct time-series properties, and these models, in turn, produce varying estimates of supply response and measures of price risk. The foregoing is illustrated by annual grain prices, monthly milk prices, and a milk supply analysis. Annual prices of corn and soybeans, for example, appear to vary around a constant mean, but when deflated by general price indexes such as the CPI, the... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Deflating; Time-series analysis; Price expectations; Price risk; Supply analysis; Demand and Price Analysis. |
| Ano: 2000 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18944 |
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| Wang, Dabin; Tomek, William G.. |
| Endogenous variables in structural models of agricultural commodity markets are typically treated as stationary. Yet, tests for unit roots have rather frequently implied that commodity prices are not stationary. This seeming inconsistency is investigated by focusing on alternative specifications of unit root tests. We apply various specifications to Illinois farm prices of corn, soybeans, barrows and gilts, and milk for the 1960 through 2002 time span. The preponderance of the evidence suggests that nominal prices do not have unit roots, but under certain specifications, the null hypothesis of a unit root cannot be rejected, particularly when the logarithms of prices are used. If the test specification does not account for a structural change that... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20141 |
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| Soshnin, Alexei I.; Tomek, William G.; de Gorter, Harry. |
| Elasticities of demand for meat imports in Russia are estimated using an AIDS model. The model differentiates among sources of imports as well as kinds of meat, but since the number of observations on Russian imports is limited, an improved block-substitutability restriction is introduced to conserve degress of freedom. The estimates of expenditure elasticities are positive for beef, pork, and chicken imported from western countries, and for beef and chicken, are larger than one. The expenditure elasticities are negative for beef and pork imported from former Soviet trade block countries. (Chicken is not imported from these countries.) Consistent with logic, the (compensated) cross-price elasticities indicate that products imported from different... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis. |
| Ano: 1999 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14739 |
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| Tomek, William G.. |
| Empirical models of commodity prices are potentially important aids to decision-makers, especially as the economy has grown more complex. A typical time series of commodity prices exhibits positive autocorrelation, occasional spikes, and random variability, and conceptual models have been developed to explain this behavior. But, the leap from theory to empirical applications is large because of model specification and data quality problems. When modeling price expectations, for example, should a price series be deflated and if so, by what deflator? The choice can have a large effect on empirical results. Nonetheless, it is possible in some applications to obtain relatively stable-estimates of structural parameters that are useful for addressing specific... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis. |
| Ano: 2000 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31309 |
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| Registros recuperados: 29 | |
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