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| Shrestha, Shailesh; Himics, Mihaly; Van Doorslaer, Benjamin; Ciaian, Pavel. |
| The current paper investigates the medium term impact of climate changes on EU agriculture. We employ CAPRI partial equilibrium modelling framework. The results indicate that within the EU, there will be both winners and losers, with some regions benefitting from climate change, while other regions suffering losses in production and welfare. In general, there are relatively small market effects at the EU aggregate. For example, the value of total agricultural income, land use and welfare change by approximately between -0.3% and 2%. However, there is a stronger impact at regional level with the effects increase by a factor higher than 10 relative to the aggregate EU impacts. The price adjustments reduce the response of agricultural sector to climate... |
| Tipo: Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Climate change; Regional impacts; CAPRI; Market effects; Risk and Uncertainty; Q54. |
| Ano: 2012 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122546 |
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| Himics, Mihaly; Van Doorslaer, Benjamin; Ciaian, Pavel; Shrestha, Shailesh. |
| In this paper the impact of possible input cost developments on the EU agriculture is analysed under ceteris paribus conditions. Two scenarios are developed with the partial equilibrium model CAPRI. The scenarios assume symmetric input price changes in positive and negative directions around a projected baseline in year 2020. The magnitude of the input price changes are based on observed volatility. To measure the volatility, the annual time-series of the CoCo database were analysed, which contains input cost estimates for a multitude of agricultural activities and cost categories at the geographical level of the EU countries. Our results suggest that the uncertainty in input cost development has a strong potential to affect commodity market balances and... |
| Tipo: Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Input costs; Volatility; CAPRI; Farm income; Risk and Uncertainty; Q13. |
| Ano: 2012 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122531 |
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