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| Sniekers, Peter; Wong, Gordon. |
| It has been generally agreed that Australia is a price follower on the world wheat market. However, to date, this has not been tested empirically. In this paper a transfer function model between prices of U.S.A. wheat and Australian wheat is set up to examine the existence, if any, of a leader-follower relationship. By employing the causality criteria as described by Granger, this analysis is implemented to draw inferences about causality among these wheat prices. Results indicated that a significant leader-follower relationship exists, with the U.S.A. taking the leader role. The results reported are particularly useful for wheat price forecasting work and provide a basis for further modelling work. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis. |
| Ano: 1987 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12313 |
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| Jolly, L.O.; Wong, Gordon. |
| The contention advanced in this paper is that forecast performance could be improved if short-term commodity forecasters were to consider formally the use of a variety of forecasting methods, rather than seeking to improve one selected method. Many researchers have demonstrated that a linear combination of forecasts can produce a composite superior to the individual component forecasts. Using a case study of two Bureau of Agricultural Economics' forecast series and alternative, time series model forecasts of the same series, four methods of deriving composite forecasts are applied on an ex ante basis and are thus evaluated as a means of improving the Bureau's forecast performance. Despite the fact that the authors could not, by combining the available... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession. |
| Ano: 1987 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12314 |
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