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Registros recuperados: 11
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Zur Reduzierung niederschlagsbedingter Produktionsrisiken mit Wetterderivaten AgEcon
Musshoff, Oliver; Odening, Martin; Xu, Wei.
In this paper we price a precipitation option based on empirical weather data from Germany using different pricing methods, among them the burn analysis, index value simulation and daily simulation. For that purpose we develop a daily precipitation model. Moreover, a decorrelation analysis is proposed to analyse the spatial basis risk that is inherent to rainfall derivatives. The models are applied to precipitation data in Brandenburg, Germany. Based on simplifying assumptions of the production function we quantify and compare the risk exposure of grain producers with and without rainfall insurance. It turns out that a considerable risk remains with producers who are located remotely from the weather station. Another finding is that significant differences...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Weather risk; Weather derivatives; Precipitation model; Basis risk; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18822
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ZUR QUANTIFIZIERUNG DES BASISRISIKOS VON WETTERDERIVATEN AgEcon
Musshoff, Oliver; Odening, Martin; Xu, Wei.
Es ist seit langem bekannt, dass das Wetter den Hauptunsicherheitsfaktor in der pflanzlichen Produktion darstellt. Seit einiger Zeit wird der Einsatz von Wetterderivaten zur Absicherung gegen wetterbedingte Ertragsschwankungen diskutiert. In diesem Beitrag wird am Beispiel ei-nes getreideproduzierenden Betriebes in Brandenburg unter Verwendung von realen Ertrags- und Wetterdaten mit Hilfe einer stochastischen Simulation die risikomindernde Wirkung quan-tifiziert, die durch den Einsatz von Niederschlagsoptionen erzielt werden kann. Dabei wird die Hedging-Effektivität durch das Kontraktdesign (Index, Strike-Preis, Tick-Size) gesteuert. Das Basisrisiko der Produktion und das geografische Basisrisiko verbleiben jedoch in jedem Fall beim Landwirt. Ziel ist es,...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14947
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Modeling and Pricing Rain Risk AgEcon
Musshoff, Oliver; Odening, Martin; Xu, Wei.
In this paper we price a precipitation option based on empirical weather data from Germany using different pricing methods, among them Burn Analysis, Index Value Simulation and Daily Simulation. For that purpose we develop a daily precipitation model. Moreover, a decorrelation analysis is proposed to assess the spatial basis risk that is inherent to rainfall derivatives. The models are applied to precipitation data in Brandenburg, Germany. Based on simplifying assumptions of the production function, we quantify and compare the risk exposure of grain producers with and without rainfall insurance. It turns out that a considerable risk remains with producers who are remotely located from the weather station. Another finding is that significant differences may...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Weather risk; Weather derivatives; Precipitation model; Basis risk; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; C8; Q14; Q54.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25386
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Indifference Pricing of Weather Insurance AgEcon
Xu, Wei; Odening, Martin; Musshoff, Oliver.
This article develops an Indifference Pricing model for a weather derivative that is traded over the counter. The model is used to calculate ask and bid prices for a put option on a weather index in Germany. We find that under moderate risk aversion the maximal bid prices of grain producers exceed the minimal sell prices of insurers only for a few regions and crops, due to the presence of basis risk. Another finding is that the actuarially fair price may lead to wrong conclusions about the market potential of weather insurance.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Weather insurance; Indifference pricing model; Basis risk; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9267
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Modeling and Hedging Rain Risk AgEcon
Musshoff, Oliver; Odening, Martin; Xu, Wei.
In this article we price a precipitation option based on empirical weather data from Germany using different pricing methods, among them Burn Analysis, Index Value Simulation and Daily Simulation. For that purpose we develop a daily precipitation model. Moreover, a de-correlation analysis is proposed to assess the spatial basis risk that is inherent to rainfall derivatives. The models are applied to precipitation data in Brandenburg, Germany. Based on simplifying assumptions of the production function, we quantify and compare the risk exposure of grain producers with and without rainfall insurance. It turns out that a considerable risk remains with producers who are remotely located from the weather station. Another finding is that significant differences...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21050
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On the Systemic Nature of Weather Risk AgEcon
Xu, Wei; Filler, Gunther; Odening, Martin; Okhrin, Ostap.
Systemic weather risk is a major obstacle for the formation of private (nonsubsidized) crop insurance. This paper explores the possibility of spatial diversification of insurance by estimating the joint occurrence of unfavorable weather conditions in different locations. For that purpose copula methods are employed that allow an adequate description of stochastic dependencies between multivariate random variables. The estimation procedure is applied to weather data in Germany. Our results indicate that indemnity payments based on temperature as well as on cumulative rainfall show strong stochastic dependence even at a national scale. Thus the possibility to reduce risk exposure by increasing the trading area of the insurance is limited. Irrespective of...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Weather risk; Crop insurance; Copula; Risk and Uncertainty; C14; Q19.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49131
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Optimal Design of Weather Bonds AgEcon
Xu, Wei; Odening, Martin; Musshoff, Oliver.
Replaced with revised version of paper 06/17/08.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Weather risk; Weather bonds; Reinsurance; Securitisation; Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6781
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On the Systemic Nature of Weather Risk AgEcon
Xu, Wei; Filler, Gunther; Odening, Martin; Okhrin, Ostap.
Systemic weather risk is a major obstacle for the formation of private (nonsubsidized) crop insurance. This paper explores the possibility of spatial diversification of insurance by estimating the joint occurrence of unfavorable weather conditions in different locations. For that purpose copula methods are employed that allow an adequate description of stochastic dependencies between multivariate random variables. The estimation procedure is applied to weather data in Germany. Our results indicate that indemnity payments based on temperature as well as on cumulative rainfall show strong stochastic dependence even at a national scale. Thus the possibility to reduce risk exposure by increasing the trading area of the insurance is limited. Irrespective of...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Weather risk; Crop insurance; Copula; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; C14; Q19.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51426
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Dislocation and Regression of the Role of Collective in Land Transfer AgEcon
Xu, Wei; Yuan, Jingheng.
This paper expounds the origin of "collective" in the process of collective land transfer, and analyzes the dislocation phenomenon of the role of collective in the process of collective land transfer as follows: deviation of the role under the conflict of identity; offside of the role under the limitation of democratic construction; omission of the role under the segmentation of interests. In order to protect me legitimate rights of farmers, we should make the role of collective to revert on the basis of township government, farmer and collective, so that the role of collective is restored under the management of government; the role of collective reverts under the supervision of farmers; the role of collective returns under its own strengthening of...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Land transfer; Role of collective; Dislocation; Regression; China; Agribusiness.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/118289
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Zur Bewertung von Wetterderivaten als innovative Risikomanagementinstrumente in der Landwirtschaft AgEcon
Musshoff, Oliver; Odening, Martin; Xu, Wei.
The importance of weather as a production factor in agriculture is well established long time and a significant portion of yield fluctuations is caused by weather risks. Traditionally, farmers have tried to hedge against unfavorable weather using insurance, such as crop insurance. In recent years a new class of instruments, so called weather derivatives, have emerged. They allows to reduce weather based risks as well. Weather derivatives are financial market products such as forwards, futures, options and swaps, that have a weather component such as temperature or rainfall. Although weather derivatives have some advantages compared to traditional insurance, their trading volume is still rather small. One reason (among others) for why potential users...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Weather derivatives; Option pricing; Actuarial methods; Financial methods; Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97216
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LASSEN SICH ERTRAGSRISIKEN IN DER LANDWIRTSCHAFT GLOBAL DIVERSIFIZIEREN? AgEcon
Liu, Xiaoliang; Xu, Wei; Odening, Martin.
C2_1
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Ertragsrisiken; Copulas; Diversifikation; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/93955
Registros recuperados: 11
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