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| Yu, Wusheng; Hertel, Thomas W.; Preckel, Paul V.; Eales, James S.. |
| Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models are increasingly being used to project world food markets in order to support forward-looking policy analysis. Such projections hinge critically on the underlying functional form for representing consumer demand. Simple functional forms can lead to unrealistic projections by failing to capture changes in income elasticities of demand. We adopt as our benchmark the recently introduced AIDADS demand system and compare it with several alternative demand systems currently in widespread use in CGE models. This comparison is conducted in the context of projections for disaggregated global food demand using a global CGE model. We find that AIDADS represents a substantial improvement, particularly for the rapidly growing... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28702 |
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| Yu, Wusheng; Jensen, Hans Grinsted. |
| The July package of the Doha Round of trade negotiations stipulates that a tiered-formula approach should be used to significantly reduce market access barriers across countries, implying that the EU would have to make larger cuts to its high external tariffs, in comparison with many other WTO members such as the US. This paper provides a preliminary assessment of the likely impact of the tiered-formula reform approach on EU agricultural sectors. Numerical simulations of a multilateral market-access reform scenario show that such cuts would lead to across-the-board decreases in intra-EU trade flows, as compared with a baseline projection. While intra-EU trade flows would decrease, the EU's trade with the rest of the world would increase. Yet such increases... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25138 |
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| Yu, Wusheng; Jensen, Hans Grinsted. |
| Existing literature on the 2007/8 food price crisis focuses on the causes and poverty and hunger consequences of the crisis and seems to be less concerned with the interactions of different policy measures applied by governments. As such, the relative effectiveness, interactions and costs of these policy actions are often not satisfactorily explored. This paper provides a first preliminary quantitative assessment on the individual and joint effects of China’s short term trade policy actions and existing domestic support measures on domestic market prices, outputs, trade flows and farm income, using a global CGE model characterized with detailed and up-to-date policy information for China in the year of 2008. A series of interesting results emerge from our... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade. |
| Ano: 2011 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/115970 |
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| Yu, Wusheng. |
| The July Package of WTO agricultural trade negotiations and the recent Hong Kong WTO Ministerial declaration call for duty and quota-free access for imports originated from least developed countries, including the African LDCs (ALDCs). This paper discusses the merits of this proposal. The usefulness of preferences has been revealed by the high utilization rate of agricultural trade preferences and the case for improving trade preferences is supported by the possibility of preference erosions. Based on these, this paper interprets the July Package text as deepening, widening, broadening and strengthening trade preferences. A set of CGE simulations illustrates the potential impact of implementing this proposal. The first scenario confirms the ALDCs'... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25732 |
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