| According to the cultivated area and grain yield during 1996- 2008 and adopting the prediction method of farmland demand based on food security, five indexes, including the cultivated area, grain sown area, yearly food yield per unit area, total population and per capita grain yield, are selected to analyze and predict the farmland demand in Yunnan Province in 2020. As the prediction results of each index show, the total population of Yunnan Province in 2020 will reach 51 464 000, significantly higher than the upper bound (50 million); the per capita food demand of Yunnan Province in 2020 will be 400kg below the bottom line of the well-off type; food self-sufficient ratio will be respectively given the value of 100%, 95% and 90% in three schemes; the... |
