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Wheat / Flour Price Transmission and Agricultural Policies in Ukraine: A Markov-Switching Vector Error Correction Approach AgEcon
Brümmer, Bernhard; Zorya, Sergiy.
The analysis of price transmission between raw and processed agricultural products in transition countries is complicated by the frequently changing conditions on their way from plan to market. We utilise a Markov-switching vector error correction model to allow for multiple regime shifts in the price relationship between wheat and wheat flour in Ukraine from June 2000 to November 2004. The analysis reveals four regimes. The observed temporal pattern of these regimes can be matched with certain political and economic events in Ukraine. In particular, we find a strong link between the 'high uncertainty' regime and discretionary policy interventions in 2003.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Markov-switching vector error correction model; Vertical price transmission; Regime shifts; Grain policies; Ukraine; Demand and Price Analysis; Industrial Organization; C22; Q11; Q18.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24624
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Vertical Price Transmission between Wheat and Flour in Ukraine: A Markov-Switching Vector Error Correction Approach AgEcon
Brümmer, Bernhard; von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan; Zorya, Sergiy.
The analysis of price transmission in transition countries is complicated by their often unstable policy environments. We utilise a Markov-switching vector error correction model (MSVECM) to allow for multiple regime shifts in the price relationship between wheat and wheat flour in Ukraine from June 2000 to November 2004. The analysis reveals four regimes. The observed temporal pattern of these regimes corresponds well to political and economic events in Ukraine. In particular, we find a strong link between a 'high uncertainty' regime and discretionary policy interventions in 2003, confirming that ad hoc policy responses to fluctuations in Ukrainian grain harvests have tended to increase rather than reduce instability. The Markov-switching VECM is shown to...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Markov-switching vector error correction model; Vertical price transmission; Regime shifts; Grain policies; Ukraine; Industrial Organization; C22; Q11; Q18.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25575
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Grenzeffekte in der Marktintegration bei Mais in Ostafrika: Einsichten aus einem semi-parametrischen Regressionsmodell AgEcon
Ihle, Rico; Amikuzuno, Joseph; von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan; Zorya, Sergiy.
Diese Arbeit analysiert Faktoren, die Einfluß auf das Ausmaß der inländischen und grenz-übergreifenden Integration der Maismärkte Kenias, Tansanias und Ugandas ausüben. Die Stärke der Reaktion der Preise auf Abweichungen von ihren Langzeitgleichgewichtswerten als Maß der Marktintegration und die Determinanten dieser Reaktion werden für 85 Marktpaare von Januar 2000 bis Oktober 2008 untersucht. Zu diesem Zweck wird ein semi-parametrisches partiell-lineares Regressionsmodell genutzt, das imstande ist, den Einfluß der Marktentfernung, der sich als nichtlinear herausstellt, adäquat zu modellieren. Die Ergebnisse der Untersuchung sind kohärent mit der ökonomischen Theorie und von politischem Interesse. Ein Grenzeffekt wird identifiziert, der in dem Sinne...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Grenzeffekt; Mais; Ostafrika; Räumliche Marktintegration; Semi-parametrische Regression; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53272
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Country and border effects in the transmission of maize prices in Eastern Africa: evidence from a semi-parametric regression model AgEcon
Ihle, Rico; von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan; Zorya, Sergiy.
This study uses a rich dataset of 85 market pairs between January 2000 and October 2008 for Kenya, Tanzanian and Uganda, the three largest member countries of the East Africa Community, to analyze the factors determining national and cross-national maize price transmission. Although the three countries are members of the community’s customs union and they each claim to pursue maize trade without borders, their agricultural trade policies still differ, thus affecting prices and trade flows to different extents. This analysis extends the existing border effects literature in three ways. First, it assesses the magnitude of price transmission, instead of analyzing trade flows or price variability. Second, distance is shown to have a significant impact on price...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Border effect; Spatial market integration; Cointegration; Semi-parametric regression; Partially linear model; Eastern Africa; Maize; Demand and Price Analysis; C32; Q11; Q13; Q17; Q18.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/96184
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When Will Ukraine be a Global Player on World Agricultural Markets? AgEcon
Zorya, Sergiy; von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan.
Competitiveness has been a subject of considerable attention in agricultural economics. In this paper we study the development of the international competitiveness of Ukrainian crop production between 1996 and 2001 using the concepts of Domestic Resource Cost and Private Cost Ratio. We distinguish between "average" and "best" farms to get a comprehensive picture of farm competitiveness in Ukraine. Our main conclusion is that agriculture responds quickly to incentives, and there are indications that Ukrainian agriculture has entered a phase of dynamic development. A shortage of human capital and physical bottlenecks in grain and oilseeds marketing could limit this development in coming years; if policy makers respond to these risks Ukraine could easily be a...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Competitiveness; Domestic Resource Cost; Private Cost Ratio; Farm heterogeneity; Eastern Europe; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24912
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How Effective is the Invisible Hand? Agricultural and Food Markets in Central and Eastern Europe AgEcon
Hockmann, Heinrich; Brosig, Stephan; Popp, Jozsef; Wilkin, Jerzy; Juchniewicz, Małgorzta; Milczarek, Dominika; Ferto, Imre; Forgacs, Csaba; Juhasz, Aniko; Kurthy, Gyongyi; Hein, Piret; Hobbs, Jill E.; Nuppenau, Ernst-August; Brümmer, Bernhard; Zorya, Sergiy; Bakucs, Lajos Zoltan; Bojnec, Stefan; Svetlov, Nikolai M.; Hurrelmann, Annette; Maack, Kai; Hanf, Jon Henrich; Glauben, Thomas; Herzfeld, Thomas; Wang, Xiaobing; Balint, Borbala; Lerman, Zvi; Shagaida, Natalya; Benner, Eckhard; Wandel, Jurgen; Nivievskyi, Oleg; Kuhn, Arnim.
Since the seminal work of Adam Smith, markets have been considered an efficient tool for co-ordinating the behaviour of economic agents. The basic characteristic of a market economy is that the complex system of interaction among individuals is not centrally coordinated. Under the assumption of profit and utility maximisation (and a whole set of assumptions about the institutional framework), relative prices and their change over time provide the signals that guide, like an invisible hand, the allocation of resources, i.e., the structure of production and the intensity of input use in the various production processes. They do this by co-ordinating the activities of economic agents, i.e., of resource owners, producers, intermediaries, traders, and...
Tipo: Book Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Industrial Organization; International Development; Labor and Human Capital; Land Economics/Use; Political Economy.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/93018
Registros recuperados: 6
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