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| Sharpe, Bill; International Futures Forum, The Boathouse, Silversands, Aberdour, Fife, UK; bill@billsharpe.eu; Hodgson, Anthony; International Futures Forum, The Boathouse, Silversands, Aberdour, Fife, UK; Centre for Environmental Change and Human Resilience, University of Dundee, Dundee, UK ; tony@decisionintegrity.co.uk; Leicester, Graham; International Futures Forum, The Boathouse, Silversands, Aberdour, Fife, UK; graham@internationalfuturesforum.com; Lyon, Andrew; International Futures Forum, The Boathouse, Silversands, Aberdour, Fife, UK; andrew@internationalfuturesforum.com; Fazey, Ioan; Centre for Environmental Change and Human Resilience, University of Dundee, Dundee, UK ; i.fazey@dundee.ac.uk. |
| Global environmental change requires responses that involve marked or qualitative changes in individuals, institutions, societies, and cultures. Yet, while there has been considerable effort to develop theory about such processes, there has been limited research on practices for facilitating transformative change. We present a novel pathways approach called Three Horizons that helps participants work with complex and intractable problems and uncertain futures. The approach is important for helping groups work with uncertainty while also generating agency in ways not always addressed by existing futures approaches. We explain how the approach uses a simple framework for structured and guided dialogue around different patterns of change by using examples. We... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Adaptation pathways; Climate change; Scenarios; Transformation; Transition. |
| Ano: 2016 |
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| Abel, Nick; Land and Water, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation ; nick.abel@csiro.au; Wise, Russell M.; Land and Water, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation; russell.wise@csiro.au; Colloff, Matthew J.; Land and Water, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation; Matt.Colloff@csiro.au; Walker, Brian H.; Land and Water, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation; brian.walker@csiro.au; Butler, James R. A.; Land and Water, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation; james.butler@csiro.au; Ryan, Paul; Australian Resilience Centre; paulryan@internode.on.net; Norman, Chris; Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority; chrisn@gbcma.vic.gov.au; Langston, Art; Land and Water, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation; art.langston@csiro.au; Anderies, John M.; Arizona State University; m.anderies@asu.edu; Gorddard, Russell; Land and Water, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation; Russell.Gorddard@csiro.au; Dunlop, Michael; Land and Water, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation; michael.dunlop@csiro.au; O'Connell, Deborah; Land and Water, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation; deborah.o'connell@csiro.au. |
| Climate change and its interactions with complex socioeconomic dynamics dictate the need for decision makers to move from incremental adaptation toward transformation as societies try to cope with unprecedented and uncertain change. Developing pathways toward transformation is especially difficult in regions with multiple contested resource uses and rights, with diverse decision makers and rules, and where high uncertainty is generated by differences in stakeholders’ values, understanding of climate change, and ways of adapting. Such a region is the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, from which we provide insights for developing a process to address these constraints. We present criteria for sequencing actions along adaptation pathways: feasibility... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Insight |
Palavras-chave: Adaptation pathways; Climate change; Collective action; Domain shift; Equity; Irrigation; Resilience; Social conflict; Transformation; Wetlands. |
| Ano: 2016 |
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