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Forecasting the Adoption of GM Oilseed Rape: Evidence from a Discrete Choice Experiment AgEcon
Breustedt, Gunnar; Muller-Scheessel, Jorg; Latacz-Lohmann, Uwe.
This paper explores farmers’ willingness to adopt genetically modified oilseed rape prior to its commercial release and estimates the ‘demand’ for the new technology. The analysis is based upon choice experiments with 202 German arable farmers. A multinomial probit estimation revealed that GM attributes such as gross margin, expected liability from cross pollination, or flexibility in returning to conventional oilseed rape significantly affect the likelihood of adoption. Neighbouring farmers’ attitudes towards GM cropping and a number of farmer and farm characteristics were also found to be significant determinants of prospective adoption. Demand simulations suggest that adoption rates are very sensitive to the profit difference between GM and non-GM rape...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Adoption forecast; Choice experiment; Genetically modified oilseed rape; Multinomial probit; Technology adoption; C42; C81; Q12; Q16.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/36771
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