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How strong is the “natural hedge”? The effects of crop acreage and aggregation levels AgEcon
Finger, Robert.
The level of natural hedge, i.e. the (negative) correlation between price and yield levels, is an important determinant for farmers’ income risks and their demand for risk management instruments. The natural hedge is often approximated with correlations observed at more aggregated levels, e.g. the county level. This induces biases because the natural hedge at the farm-level is smaller than on more aggregated levels. In this paper, we put this idea one step forward and investigate the empirical relationship between price-yield correlations and the underlying crop acreage, using farm-level data for 5 crops in Switzerland. We find that, for instance, a 1% increase in area under maize and intensive barley leads to a change in the correlation by -0.02 and...
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Price-yield correlation; Aggregation bias; Crop insurance; Risk and Uncertainty; Q1; G2.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122538
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On aggregation bias in structural demand models AgEcon
Lai, Pei-Chun; Bessler, David A..
Consumer demand analysis attracts considerable attention. It remains an open question, however, whether estimating demand with aggregate data is reliable when disaggregate store-level data is given. Demand models may produce biased results when applied to data aggregated across stores with different pricing strategies. In this study, the graphical model is used to investigate the following question: Do we find the same structure when we fit causal models on sub-groupings of stores, as we find when we fit models on aggregate data from all stores?
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Causal analysis; Aggregation bias; Demand and Price Analysis; C01.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61523
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Agriculture’s inter-industry linkages, aggregation bias and rural policy reforms AgEcon
Lindberg, Gunnar; Midmore, Peter; Surry, Yves R..
As agricultural policy reform and its effects have become increasingly territorialised, analyses which attempt to explain or predict impacts need to be more localised but also identify spillover effects. In addition to the predictions of policy shocks predicted by sectoral partial equilibrium models, local and regional general equilibrium approaches which establish the wider effects of such policy shocks have become popular. However, these neglect a major, underexplored difficulty: agriculture is usually described as a single sector in input-output accounts, whereas policy shocks with differential impacts have effects on other industries which are different to those implied by average input-output coefficients. Regionalisation of aggregated input-output...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural and rural development policy evaluation; CAP; Input-output analysis; Aggregation bias; Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/99358
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