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Visions of Alternative (Unpredictable) Futures and Their Use in Policy Analysis Ecology and Society
Costanza, Robert; University of Maryland, Institute for Ecological Economics; rcostanz@zoo.uvm.edu.
The most critical task facing humanity today is the creation of a shared vision of a sustainable and desirable society, one that can provide permanent prosperity within the biophysical constraints of the real world in a way that is fair and equitable to all of humanity, to other species, and to future generations. Recent work with businesses and communities indicates that creating a shared vision is the most effective engine for change in the desired direction, yet most effort in "futures modeling" has focused on extrapolating past trends rather than envisioning alternative futures. Science and economics as applied to policy are in conflict more often over alternative visions of the world than purely "scientific" disagreements. Likewise, governance has...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Alternative futures; Change process; Envisioning; Public judgment; Public policy analysis; Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
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Plausible futures of a social-ecological system: Yahara watershed, Wisconsin, USA Ecology and Society
Carpenter, Stephen R; Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison; srcarpen@wisc.edu; Booth, Eric G.; Department of Agronomy, University of Wisconsin-Madison; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison; egbooth@wisc.edu; Gillon, Sean; Department of Food Systems and Society, Marylhurst University; Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison; sgillon@marylhurst.edu; Kucharik, Christopher J.; Department of Agronomy, University of Wisconsin-Madison; Nelson Institute Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment, University of Wisconsin-Madison; kucharik@wisc.edu; Loheide, Steven; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison; Loheide@wisc.edu; Mase, Amber S.; Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison; Mase@wisc.edu; Motew, Melissa; Nelson Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment, University of Wisconsin-Madison; Motew@wisc.edu; Qiu, Jiangxiao; Department of Zoology, University of Wisconsin-Madison; jqiu7@wisc.edu; Rissman, Adena R; Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison; ARRissman@wisc.edu; Seifert, Jenny; Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison; JSeifert2@wisc.edu; Soylu, Evren; Department of Civil Engineering, Meliksah University; Nelson Institute for Sustainability and the Global Environment, University of Wisconsin-Madison; evrensoylu@gmail.com; Turner, Monica; Department of Zoology, University of Wisconsin-Madison; turnermg @ wisc.edu; Wardropper, Chloe B; Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison; Wardropper@wisc.edu.
Agricultural watersheds are affected by changes in climate, land use, agricultural practices, and human demand for energy, food, and water resources. In this context, we analyzed the agricultural, urbanizing Yahara watershed (size: 1345 km², population: 372,000) to assess its responses to multiple changing drivers. We measured recent trends in land use/cover and water quality of the watershed, spatial patterns of 10 ecosystem services, and spatial patterns and nestedness of governance. We developed scenarios for the future of the Yahara watershed by integrating trends and events from the global scenarios literature, perspectives of stakeholders, and models of biophysical drivers and ecosystem services. Four qualitative scenarios were created to...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Alternative futures; Climate; Ecosystem services; Eutrophication; Governance; Lakes; Land-use change; Phosphorus; Scenarios.
Ano: 2015
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ALTERNATIVE FUTURES OF RURAL AREAS IN THE EU: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF SCENARIO STUDIES AgEcon
Jansson, Kristina M.; Terluin, Ida J..
What does rural Europe look like in 2030? Is agriculture still the main land user? In recent years, studies such as ESPON, Eururalis, SCENAR2020, SENSOR, SEAMLESS and PRELUDE have tried to address these questions. These studies resulted in a number of alternative futures of rural areas in the EU. In this paper a comparative analysis of these scenario studies is made in order to explore differences and similarities in the scenarios and alternative futures of rural areas in the EU. For this purpose, we designed a scheme for assessing the properties of the various scenarios and a scheme for a systematic description of the rural futures according to the scenarios. It appears that most scenario studies use a baseline scenario and a set of alternative scenarios...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Rural Europe; Scenario studies; Alternative futures; Land-use; Territorial disparities; Agribusiness; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/57506
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