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Registros recuperados: 7
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Zur Reduzierung niederschlagsbedingter Produktionsrisiken mit Wetterderivaten AgEcon
Musshoff, Oliver; Odening, Martin; Xu, Wei.
In this paper we price a precipitation option based on empirical weather data from Germany using different pricing methods, among them the burn analysis, index value simulation and daily simulation. For that purpose we develop a daily precipitation model. Moreover, a decorrelation analysis is proposed to analyse the spatial basis risk that is inherent to rainfall derivatives. The models are applied to precipitation data in Brandenburg, Germany. Based on simplifying assumptions of the production function we quantify and compare the risk exposure of grain producers with and without rainfall insurance. It turns out that a considerable risk remains with producers who are located remotely from the weather station. Another finding is that significant differences...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Weather risk; Weather derivatives; Precipitation model; Basis risk; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18822
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Modeling and Pricing Rain Risk AgEcon
Musshoff, Oliver; Odening, Martin; Xu, Wei.
In this paper we price a precipitation option based on empirical weather data from Germany using different pricing methods, among them Burn Analysis, Index Value Simulation and Daily Simulation. For that purpose we develop a daily precipitation model. Moreover, a decorrelation analysis is proposed to assess the spatial basis risk that is inherent to rainfall derivatives. The models are applied to precipitation data in Brandenburg, Germany. Based on simplifying assumptions of the production function, we quantify and compare the risk exposure of grain producers with and without rainfall insurance. It turns out that a considerable risk remains with producers who are remotely located from the weather station. Another finding is that significant differences may...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Weather risk; Weather derivatives; Precipitation model; Basis risk; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; C8; Q14; Q54.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25386
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Indifference Pricing of Weather Insurance AgEcon
Xu, Wei; Odening, Martin; Musshoff, Oliver.
This article develops an Indifference Pricing model for a weather derivative that is traded over the counter. The model is used to calculate ask and bid prices for a put option on a weather index in Germany. We find that under moderate risk aversion the maximal bid prices of grain producers exceed the minimal sell prices of insurers only for a few regions and crops, due to the presence of basis risk. Another finding is that the actuarially fair price may lead to wrong conclusions about the market potential of weather insurance.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Weather insurance; Indifference pricing model; Basis risk; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9267
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EFFICIENCY OF WIND INDEXED TYPHOON INSURANCE FOR RICE AgEcon
Banerjee, Chirantan; Berg, Ernst.
Index-based weather insurances are innovative tools for mitigating weather risks in agriculture. Several donor agencies and development organisations are investing substantially to propagate these programmes in developing countries. However, often due to high basis risks, these products mitigate risk only through diversification effect, thereby defeating the intended purpose. Besides, they send confusing messages to the farmers regarding the very concept of insurance. Therefore, this paper investigates the efficiency of two such index-based weather insurances in Philippines, designed to mitigate rice yield loss caused by strong typhoon winds. The insurance products are designed assuming negative linear correlation between wind speed and rice yield. To...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Basis risk; Typhoon; Index-based Insurance; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114240
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Weather derivative design in agriculture – a case study of barley in the Southern Moravia Region AgEcon
Spicka, Jindrich.
The aim of this paper is to point out some problems of index estimation for the purposes of weather derivative valuation considering the particularities of agriculture. The assessment of the sensitivity of barley to weather over 40 years has been the basis for the design and valuation of weather derivative in the Czech Republic (The Southern Moravia Region). The analysis is based on regression modeling using temperature index and barley yield. The burn analysis based on parametric bootstrap is used as the method for the valuation of weather derivative contract. With the effective bootstrap tool, the burn analysis may easily be processed and the uncertainty about the pay-off, option price and statistics of probability distribution of revenues can be...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Weather derivative valuation; Agriculture; Risk management; Basis risk; Burn analysis; Agricultural and Food Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; GA; IN.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/116383
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Index Insurance, Probabilistic Climate Forecasts, and Production AgEcon
Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Osgood, Daniel E..
Index insurance and probabilistic seasonal forecasts are becoming available in developing countries to help farmers manage climate risks in production. Although these tools are intimately related, work has not been done to formalize the connections between them. We investigate the relationship between the risk management tools through a model of input choice under uncertainty, forecasts, and insurance. While it is possible for forecasts to undermine insurance, we find that when contracts are appropriately designed, there are important synergies between forecasts, insurance, and effective input use. Used together, these tools overcome barriers preventing the use of imperfect information in production decision making.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Basis risk; Climate forecast; Index insurance; Input decisions; Insurance; Risk management; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6107
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Selling formal Insurance to the Informally Insured AgEcon
Mobarak, A. Mushfiq; Rosenzweig, Mark R..
Unpredictable rainfall is an important risk for agricultural activity, and farmers in developing countries often receive incomplete insurance from informal risk-sharing networks. We study the demand for, and effects of, offering formal index-based rainfall insurance through a randomized experiment in an environment where the informal risk sharing network can be readily identified and richly characterized: sub-castes in rural India. A model allowing for both idiosyncratic and aggregate risk shows that informal networks lower the demand for formal insurance only if the network indemnifies against aggregate risk, but not if its primary role is to insure against farmer-specific losses. When formal insurance carries basis risk (mismatches between payouts and...
Tipo: Working Paper Palavras-chave: Index insurance; Risk sharing; Basis risk; Agricultural Finance; Financial Economics; International Development; Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty; O17; O13; O16.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/121671
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