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A Dynamic Adoption Model with Bayesian Learning: Application to the U.S. Soybean Market AgEcon
Ma, Xingliang; Shi, Guanming.
Agricultural technology adoption is often a sequential process. Farmers may adopt a new technology in part of their land first and then adjust in later years based on what they learn from the earlier partial adoption. This paper presents a dynamic adoption model with Bayesian learning, in which forward-looking farmers learn from their own experience and from their neighbors about the new technology. The model is compared to that of a myopic model, in which farmers only maximize their current benefits. We apply the analysis to a sample of U.S. soybean farmers from year 2000 to 2004 to examine their adoption pattern of a newly developed genetically modified (GM) seed technology. We show that the myopic model predicts lower adoption rates in early years than...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Technology adoption; Bayesian learning; Structural estimation; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Industrial Organization; Production Economics; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/104577
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Bayesian Learning and the Regulation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions AgEcon
Karp, Larry S.; Zhang, Jiangfeng.
We study the importance of anticipated learning - about both environmental damages and abatement costs - in determining the level and the method of controlling greenhouse gas emissions. We also compare active learning, passive learning, and parameter uncertainty without learning. Current beliefs about damages and abatement costs have an important effect on the optimal level of emissions, However, the optimal level of emissions is not sensitive either to the possibility of learning about damages. or to the type of learning (active or passive), Taxes dominate quotas, but by a small margin.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate change; Uncertainty; Bayesian learning; Asymmetric information; Choice of instruments; Dynamic optimization; Environmental Economics and Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Cll; C6l; D8; H2l; Q28.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6214
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