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Credit Risk Migration Analysis Focused on Farm Business Characteristics and Business Cycles 31
Katchova, Ani L.; Nam, Sangjeong.
We applied the migration approach to credit scoring measurement to determine how ratings, focused on farm characteristics such as farm size, age, and farm business type, change across business cycles. The empirical results from analyzing migration matrices using data from FBFM suggest that old, large and grain farms are more likely to upgrade their classes, while young, small, livestock farms are likely to downgrade. The migration matrices for each characteristic across the business cycles show that all farm businesses (except small, livestock farms) have a tendency to deteriorate during the recession cycles regardless of their characteristics.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Migration matrix; Business cycle; Path independence; Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19451
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CREDIT SCORE MIGRATION ANALYSIS OF FARM BUSINESSES: CONDITIONING ON BUSINESS CYCLES AND MIGRATION TRENDS 31
Phillips, Jill; Katchova, Ani L..
This study examines credit score migration rates of farm businesses. We test whether migration probabilities differ across business cycles. Our results suggest that agricultural credit ratings are more likely to improve during expansions and deteriorate during recessions. We also test whether agricultural credit ratings depend on the previous period migration trends. Our results show that credit score ratings exhibit trend reversal where upgrades (downgrades) are more likely to be followed by downgrades (upgrades).
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Business cycle; Credit migration; Migration trend; Path dependence; Rating drift; Trend reversal; Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20136
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On the Micro-Structure of the German Export Boom: Evidence from Establishment Panel Data, 1995 - 2002 31
Wagner, Joachim.
This paper uses an unbalanced panel data set for exporting firms from manufacturing industries in one German federal state, Lower Saxony, to investigate the micro-structure of the recent export boom. Looking at data for 1995/96 to 2001/02 it is demonstrated that a considerable number of plants starts and stops exporting in each year, but that most of the export dynamics is due to positive and negative changes of exports in plants that continue to export. A small fraction made of four to five percent of all exporting plants is responsible for around 70 to 80 percent of the gross increase in exports. Firms with expanding and contracting exports are found simultaneously in all broad sectors, technology classes and firm size classes. Patterns of export...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Exports; Business cycle; Establishment panel data; International Relations/Trade; F14; E32.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/26134
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