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Sensitivity of the Amazon biome to high resolution climate change projections Acta Amazonica
LYRA,Andre de Arruda; CHOU,Sin Chan; SAMPAIO,Gilvan de Oliveira.
ABSTRACT: Despite the reduction in deforestation rate in recent years, the impact of global warming by itself can cause changes in vegetation cover. The objective of this work was to investigate the possible changes on the major Brazilian biome, the Amazon Rainforest, under different climate change scenarios. The dynamic vegetation models may simulate changes in vegetation distribution and the biogeochemical processes due to climate change. Initially, the Inland dynamic vegetation model was forced with initial and boundary conditions provided by CFSR and the Eta regional climate model driven by the historical simulation of HadGEM2-ES. These simulations were validated using the Santarém tower data. In the second part, we assess the impact of a future...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Change; Regional climate model; Dynamic vegetation model.
Ano: 2016 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0044-59672016000200175
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Transformación y valoración del paisaje en la Preciosita, Santa Rita Tlahuapan, Puebla y el Programa de Ordenamiento Ecológico Regional del Volcán Popocatépetl. Colegio de Postgraduados
Lara Visconti, Carolina.
La presente investigación se llevó a cabo en la localidad de La Preciosita, en el municipio de Santa Rita Tlahuapan, Puebla. Tuvo como objetivos analizar la transformación del paisaje y la valoración que los pobladores de La Preciosita tienen sobre este, así como observar su relación con las propuestas elaboradas por el Programa de Ordenamiento Ecológico Regional (POER) decretado para la región del Volcán Popocatpetl y su zona de influencia. La importancia de estudiar esta relación radica en que el POER es un instrumento de planeación ambiental de gran alcance el cual una vez decretado adquiere carácter de ley y puede ser utilizado de manera inductiva para estudios y proyectos de impacto ambiental entre otros. La metodología utilizada incluyó diversos...
Palavras-chave: Valoración de paisaje; Transformación; Ordenamiento ecológico; Planeación de paisaje; Landscape value; Change; Local and regional management; Landscape planning; Doctorado; CEDAR; Estrategias para el Desarrollo Agrícola Regional.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10521/122
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Transformación y valoración del paisaje en la Preciosita, Santa Rita Tlahuapan, Puebla y el Programa de Ordenamiento Ecológico Regional del Volcán Popocatépetl. Colegio de Postgraduados
Lara Visconti, Carolina.
La presente investigación se llevó a cabo en la localidad de La Preciosita, en el municipio de Santa Rita Tlahuapan, Puebla. Tuvo como objetivos analizar la transformación del paisaje y la valoración que los pobladores de La Preciosita tienen sobre este, así como observar su relación con las propuestas elaboradas por el Programa de Ordenamiento Ecológico Regional (POER) decretado para la región del Volcán Popocatpetl y su zona de influencia. La importancia de estudiar esta relación radica en que el POER es un instrumento de planeación ambiental de gran alcance el cual una vez decretado adquiere carácter de ley y puede ser utilizado de manera inductiva para estudios y proyectos de impacto ambiental entre otros. La metodología utilizada incluyó diversos...
Palavras-chave: Valoración de paisaje; Transformación; Ordenamiento ecológico; Planeación de paisaje; Landscape value; Change; Local and regional management; Landscape planning; Doctorado; CEDAR; Estrategias para el Desarrollo Agrícola Regional.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10521/122
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A Handful of Heuristics and Some Propositions for Understanding Resilience in Social-Ecological Systems Ecology and Society
Walker, Brian; CSIRO; Brian.Walker@csiro.au; Gunderson, Lance; Emory Universitry; lgunder@emory.edu; Kinzig, Ann; Arizona State University; Ann.Kinzig@asu.edu; Folke, Carl; Stockholm University; calle@system.ecology.su.se; Carpenter, Steve; University of Wisconsin; srcarpen@wisc.edu; Schultz, Lisen; Stockholm University; lisen@ecology.su.se.
This paper is a work-in-progress account of ideas and propositions about resilience in social-ecological systems. It articulates our understanding of how these complex systems change and what determines their ability to absorb disturbances in either their ecological or their social domains. We call them “propositions” because, although they are useful in helping us understand and compare different social-ecological systems, they are not sufficiently well defined to be considered formal hypotheses. These propositions were developed in two workshops, in 2003 and 2004, in which participants compared the dynamics of 15 case studies in a wide range of regions around the world. The propositions raise many questions, and we present a list of...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed article Palavras-chave: Resilience; Social-ecological systems; Change; Propositions; Synthesis; Theory; Adaptatability; Transformability.
Ano: 2006
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Scenario planning during rapid ecological change: lessons and perspectives from workshops with southwest Yukon wildlife managers Ecology and Society
Beach, Dylan M.; School of Environment and Sustainability, University of Saskatchewan; dylanbeach@gmail.com; Clark, Douglas A.; School of Environment and Sustainability, University of Saskatchewan; d.clark@usask.ca.
Scenario planning has been increasingly advocated as a strategic planning tool for enabling natural resource managers to make decisions in the face of uncertainty and rapid change. However, few examples exist that discuss the technique’s application in that field. We used a scenario planning approach to develop wildlife management goals and evaluated participants’ perceptions of scenario planning as a goal development tool. Study participants emphasized the context-specificity of management goals, and that “no-regrets” management strategies might not be constructive. We found that scenario planning can help resource managers identify needs that have been overlooked but may become important in the future. Scenarios...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Champagne & Aishihik First Nations; Change; Participatory; Qualitative; Scenario planning; Social-ecological system (SES); Wildlife management; Yukon Territory.
Ano: 2015
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The importance of ecosystem services for rural inhabitants in a changing cultural landscape in Romania Ecology and Society
Hartel, Tibor; Sapientia University, Department of Environmental Sciences; Institute of Ecology, Leuphana University Lueneburg; hartel.tibor@gmail.com; Fischer, Joern; Institute of Ecology, Leuphana University Lueneburg; joern.fischer@uni.leuphana.de; Milcu, Andra Ioana; Institute of Ecology, Leuphana University Lueneburg; milcu@leuphana.de; Hanspach, Jan; Institute of Ecology, Leuphana University Lueneburg; hanspach@leuphana.de; Fazey, Ioan; School of Environment/CECHR, University of Dundee; iraf2@st-andrews.ac.uk.
Many traditional cultural landscapes evolved as coupled social-ecological systems. It is important to understand how such systems navigate novel challenges posed by globalization. To address this issue, we bring together two components of a pilot study carried out in a cultural landscape from Central Romania. The region was affected by major social and economic perturbations in the past century, affecting ethnic composition, community cohesion, land property regimes, and the management of common resources. The first component of our study investigated how rural inhabitants appreciated ecosystem services through questionnaires with 98 people in 30 villages. The second component aimed to assess the perception of people about ongoing changes in their...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Change; Cultural landscape; Eastern Europe; Globalization; Rural communities.
Ano: 2014
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Observations on Drivers and Dynamics of Environmental Policy Change: Insights from 150 Years of Forest Management in British Columbia Ecology and Society
Hagerman, Shannon M; Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia; University of Washington, Climate Impacts Group; hshannon@interchange.ubc.ca; Dowlatabadi, Hadi; University of British Columbia; Resources for the Future; Carnegie Mellon University; hadi.d@ubc.ca; Satterfield, Terre; University of British Columbia; satterfd@interchange.ubc.ca.
Human and ecological elements of resource management systems co-adapt over time. In this paper, we examine the drivers of change in forest management policy in British Columbia since 1850. We asked: How has a set of system attributes changed over time, and what drivers contributed to change when it occurred? We simultaneously examined a set of three propositions relating to drivers and dynamics of policy change. We find that factors contributing to the level of impacts, like technology, changed substantially over time and had dramatic impacts. In partial contrast, the institutions used to exercise control (patterns of agency and governance) remained the same until relatively recently. Other system attributes remained unchanged (e.g., the concept of...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Synthesis Palavras-chave: British Columbia; Change; Drivers; Forest management; Global change; Historical analysis; Science and policy; Social– Ecological system; Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
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From Complex Regions to Complex Worlds Ecology and Society
Holling, C. S.; University of Florida; holling@zoo.ufl.edu.
Panarchy focuses on ecological and social systems that change abruptly. Panarchy is the process by which they grow, adapt, transform, and, in the end, collapse. These stages occur at different scales. The back loop of such changes is a critical time and presents critical opportunities for experiment and learning. It is when uncertainties arise and when resilience is tested and established. We now see changes on a global scale that suggest that we are in such a back loop. This article assesses the possibility of using the ideas that are central to panarchy, developed on a regional scale, to help explain the changes that are being brought about on a global scale by the Internet and by climate, economic, and geopolitical changes.
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Adaptive cycles; Change; Complex systems; Panarchy; Transformation.
Ano: 2004
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Evolucao da erosividade das chuvas na Bacia do Alto Taquari. Infoteca-e
SORIANO, B. M. A.; CLARKE, R. T.; GALDINO, S..
O assoreamento do rio Taquari constitui hoje um dos mais graves e discutidos problemas de impacto ambiental e socio economicos do Pantanal. Apesar do rio Taquari, historicamente, transportar grande quantidade de sedimento, a partir do final da decada de 70 esse processo foi intensificado com a expansao da atividade agropecuaria na Bacia do Alto Taquari (BAT). Outro fator importante no aumento do aporte de sedimento para o Pantanal pode estar relacionado a mudanca no regime pluviometrico na BAT. O calculo do indice mensal de erosividade da chuva foi efetuado para dois periodos: de 1969/70 a 1972/73 (periodo 1) e de 1973/74 A 1987/88 (periodo 2), utilizando o metodo de Lombardi Neto. Foram selecionadas cinco estacoes pluviometricas localizadas na BAT que...
Tipo: Folhetos Palavras-chave: Assoreamento; Rio Taquari; Regime pluviometrico; Mudanca; Sedimentation; Erosion; Taquari River; Rain regime; Change; Wetland; Chuva; Desmatamento; Erosão; Pantanal; Deforestation; Rain.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://www.infoteca.cnptia.embrapa.br/infoteca/handle/doc/809810
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Mudanças no regime hidrológico da bacia hidrográfica do Rio Taquari-Pantanal. Infoteca-e
GALDINO, S.; PADOVANI, C. R.; SORIANO, B. M. A.; VIEIRA, L. M..
A inundação de 11.000 km2 no Pantanal, iniciada na década de 70, vem causando prejuízos à pecuária bovina e alterações na flora nativa. Esta inundação atribuída ao assoreamento do rio Taquari pode também estar associada a mudança no regime hidrológico, passando de um período seco para um período de chuvas e cheias maiores. As cheias maiores podem estar relacionadas ao aumento do desmatamento na bacia do alto Taquari (BAT). Foram analisadas vazões no rio Taquari, contribuições do nível do rio Paraguai e da precipitação na inundação. Também foi avaliado efeito da expansão da agropecuária na BAT sobre o aumento da vazão do rio Taquari, em Coxim. Contatou-se mudança significativa no regime hidrológico da planície do baixo curso do Taquari. A partir de 1973-74...
Tipo: Folhetos Palavras-chave: Regime hidrológico; Mudança; Cheia; Bacia do Rio Taquari; Hydrologic regime; Change; Flood; Watershed; Taquari river basin; Hidrologia; Pantanal; Hydrology.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://www.infoteca.cnptia.embrapa.br/infoteca/handle/doc/810744
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How Large Are the Welfare Gains from Technological Innovation Induced by Environmental Policies? AgEcon
Parry, Ian W.H.; Pizer, William A.; Fischer, Carolyn.
This paper examines whether the welfare gains from technological innovation that reduces future abatement costs are larger or smaller than the "Pigouvian" welfare gains from optimal pollution control. The relative welfare gains from innovation depend on three key factors - the initially optimal level of abatement, the speed at which innovation reduces future abatement costs, and the discount rate. We calculate the welfare gains from innovation under a variety of different scenarios. Mostly they are less than the Pigouvian welfare gains. To be greater, innovation must reduce abatement costs substantially and quickly and the initially optimal abatement level must be fairly modest.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Innovation; Welfare; Regulation; Endogenous; Technological; Change; R&D; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q16; Q28; O32; O33.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10621
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A New World Chaos? International Institutions in the Information Age AgEcon
Kerr, William A..
The technological revolutions that underlie the new information age will tax considerably the abilities of existing international institutions to bring order to international relations. Rapid rates of change may lead to chaos if international institutions cannot evolve to accommodate those changes. In some cases, new organisations will be required. The role given international organisations in establishing order in the latter half of the 20th century is reviewed. The new challenges presented by the information age are outlined. Whether the existing international organisations will be sufficiently flexible to accommodate the changes brought by the information age is assessed.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Change; Globalisation; International institutions; Law; Trade policy; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23831
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An Exploratory Analysis of Cooperative Model Change in the Process of Tomato Industrialization in Xinjiang, China AgEcon
He, Zhen.
The cooperation models appeared in the process of tomato industrialization in Xinjiang include orders, intermediary agencies and work-shops. The cooperation content, the closeness and the cooperation stability of these models are different from each other. From the local to the Corps in Xinjiang, the cooperation model has undergone corresponding changes. The internal interest mechanism, the constraint mechanism and the protection mechanism have also undergone some changes. In order to make a breakthrough in tomato industrialization in Xinjiang, the cooperation model should be changed from the loose and semi-compact type to the high-compact type. The interest mechanism, the constraint mechanism and the protection mechanism between famers and companies will...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Industrialization; Cooperation model; Change; China; Agribusiness.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/93542
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PREPARING FOR SUCCESS IN THE AGRIBUSINESS MARKET PLACE AgEcon
Boehlje, Michael; Akridge, Jay T.; Kalaitzandonakes, Nicholas G..
With the dramatic changes occurring in the agricultural industries, it is critical to develop and maintain competencies that will enhance one's competitive position in this rapidly evolving market. The skills or capacities required to be successful are dynamic capabilities which embrace new ideas, change, innovation, analysis, integration, and teamwork-capabilities which may not be part of the experience base in the more traditional agriculture of the past.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Adding value; Capabilities; Change; Innovation; Intellectual capital; Organizational transformation; Agribusiness.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14655
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Institutional Learning and Change in the CGIAR: Summary Record of the Workshop Held at IFPRI, Washington, DC, February 4-6, 2003 AgEcon
This report summarizes the papers presented and the discussions that took place at the workshop on Institutional Learning and Change in the CGIAR held at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in Washington, D.C. from February 4–6, 2003. The workshop brought to together researchers, donors, and practitioners to develop a strategy for promoting a culture and set of practices conducive to institutional learning and change (ILAC) within the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) system.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: CGIAR; ILAC; Institutional; Learning; Change; IFPRI; Agricultural and Food Policy; Food Security and Poverty; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/52539
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Linear Programming and Future Landuse Scenarios: An Irrigated Catchment Case Study AgEcon
Gyles, Oliver; Montecillo, Olive P..
Potential for change in the mix of irrigated enterprises was estimated for a catchment in the Shepparton irrigation region using linear programming. The model allocated resources to maximise net income in each of the next five decades as if the catchment were one farm. Change was driven by price trends and productivity and constrained by water resources, land capability and investment capital. On the basis of the assumptions implicit in the model and sensitivity testing carried out, it appears more likely that there will be a rapid decline in irrigated cropping and pasture based meat production in conjunction with a significant increase in irrigated dairying in the first two decades, followed by an interchange of resources between dairying and new...
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Irrigation; Enterprise; Productivity; Change; Water allocation; Policy; Economic growth; Natural resource management; Linear programming; Shepparton Irrigation Region; Land Economics/Use.
Ano: 1999 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/123809
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Innovation Histories: A method from learning from experience AgEcon
Douthwaite, Boru; Ashby, Jacqueline.
Preparing an ‘innovation history’ is a method for recording and reflecting on an innovation process. People who have been involved in the innovation jointly construct a detailed written account (sometimes referred to as a ‘learning history’) based on their recollections and on available documents. The process of preparing this history stimulates discussion, reflection and learning amongst stakeholders. Subsequent planning can build on the lessons learned, formulate a shared vision and act as a catalyst for change. Based on the initial detailed account of the innovation process, more concise informational products can be prepared that summarize the innovation process for wider dissemination of findings. These may include public awareness materials, policy...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Innovation; Histories; Learning; Change; ILAC; Agricultural and Food Policy; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/52515
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ROMANIAN INSURANCE BUSINESS TRENDS AND THE INTERNATIONAL CRISIS EFFECTS ON IT AgEcon
Joldes, Cosmin; Horobet, Alexandra.
Is it interesting a 2 billion euro insurance market for the “old” Europe? “Not very much” one may say considering this figure represents no more than 16% of the insurance turn-over in the case of the most recent entry in the Romanian market, Groupama. The answer is still not as simple as that because “interesting” in business terms is not only about today, but very much about tomorrow. By the end of 2007 it was obvious that the Romanian insurance market is far from calming down. Not only that for the time being change is still the main real constant in use, but figures show that the market environment becomes more challenging than ever these days. The market situation showed that this allegation it was by that time more likely to be true than ever.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Insurance; Trends; Crisis; Change; Strategies; Agricultural Finance; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Financial Economics; Political Economy.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53533
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How Large Are the Welfare Gains from Technological Innovation Induced by Environmental Policies? AgEcon
Parry, Ian W.H.; Pizer, William A.; Fischer, Carolyn.
This paper examines whether the welfare gains from technological innovation that reduces future abatement costs are larger or smaller than the “Pigouvian” welfare gains from optimal pollution control. The relative welfare gains from innovation depend on three key factors ¾ the initially optimal level of abatement, the speed at which innovation reduces future abatement costs, and the discount rate. We calculate the welfare gains from innovation under a variety of different scenarios. Mostly they are less than the Pigouvian welfare gains. To be greater, innovation must reduce abatement costs substantially and quickly and the initially optimal abatement level must be fairly modest.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Innovation; Welfare; Regulation; Endogenous; Technological; Change; R&D; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q16; Q28; O32; O33.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10448
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Evaluation, Learning and Change in Research and Development Organizations: Concepts, Experiences, and Implications for the CGIAR AgEcon
Horton, Douglas; Galleno, Viviana; Mackay, Ronald.
2nd edition
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Learning; Evaluation; Change; ISNAR; Research; CGIAR; Development; Agricultural and Food Policy; Food Security and Poverty; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/52540
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