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Registros recuperados: 25
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How Useful Are Species Distribution Models for Managing Biodiversity under Future Climates? Ecology and Society
Sinclair, Steve J; Arthur Rylah Institute, Department of Sustainability and Environment; steve.sinclair@dse.vic.gov.au; White, Matthew D; Arthur Rylah Institute, Department of Sustainability and Environment; Matt.White@dse.vic.gov.au; Newell, Graeme R; Arthur Rylah Institute, Department of Sustainability and Environment; Graeme.Newell@dse.vic.gov.au.
Climate change presents unprecedented challenges for biological conservation. Agencies are increasingly looking to modeled projections of species’ distributions under future climates to inform management strategies. As government scientists with a responsibility to communicate the best available science to our policy colleagues, we question whether current modeling approaches and outputs are practically useful. Here, we synthesize conceptual problems with species distribution models (SDMs) associated with interspecific interactions, dispersal, ecological equilibria and time lags, evolution, and the sampling of niche space. Although projected SDMs have undoubtedly been critical in alerting us to the magnitude of climate change impacts, we conclude...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Synthesis Palavras-chave: Climate policy; Climatic envelope; Decision support; Distribution modeling; Niche; Spatial modeling; Species interaction..
Ano: 2010
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The Environmental Kuznets Curve: Tipping Points, Uncertainty and Weak Identification AgEcon
Bernard, Jean-Thomas; Gavin, Michael; Khalaf, Lynda; Voia, Marcel.
We consider an empirical estimation of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) for carbon dioxide and sulphur, with a focus on confidence set estimation of the tipping point. Various econometric – parametric and nonparametric – methods are considered, reflecting the implications of persistence, endogeneity, the necessity of breaking down our panel regionally, and the small number of countries within each panel. In particular, we propose an inference method that corrects for potential weak-identification of the tipping point. Weak identification may occur if the true EKC is linear while a quadratic income term is nevertheless imposed into the estimated equation. Relevant literature to date confirms that non-linearity of the EKC is indeed not granted, which...
Tipo: Working Paper Palavras-chave: Environmental Kuznets Curve; Fieller method; Delta method; CO2 and SO2 emissions; Confidence set; Tipping point; Climate policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; C52; Q51; Q52; Q56.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119109
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The Relative Role of Land in Climate Policy AgEcon
Golub, Alla A.; Hertel, Thomas W.; Rose, Steven K.; Sohngen, Brent; Avetisyan, Misak.
Replaced with revised version of paper 06/26/09.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Climate policy; Land use related emissions; Carbon forest sequestration; CGE; Environmental Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49513
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Az éghajlatváltozás növekvő szerepe a közösségi szakpolitikákban, különös tekintettel a közös agrárpolitikára AgEcon
Baksa, Adrienn.
Az éghajlatváltozás globális hatásainak Európa is kiszolgáltatott. Így megnövekedett annak az igénye, hogy az Európai Unió adaptációs és mitigációs intézkedéseket építsen be szakpolitikáiba. Hosszabb távra azonban összehangolt és megfelelő pénzügyi háttérrel rendelkező EU-s klímastratégia szükséges. A megváltozó éghajlat kulcstényező az európai mezőgazdaság és vidék fejlődésében, ezért a közeljövő Közös Agrárpolitikáját (KAP) már ehhez javasolt igazítani. A fenntartható termelést elősegítik a 2007–2013-as EU-s vidékfejlesztési intézkedések, melyek nagy része a mitigációt is ösztönzi. Ezért az EU további vidékfejlesztési többletforrásokat csoportosított az éghajlatváltozás okozta hatások mérséklésére és az adaptáció növelésére. Véleményem szerint az EU...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Éghajlatváltozás; EU; Klímapolitika; Közös agrárpolitika; Vidékfejlesztés; Climate change; EU; Climate policy; Common Agricultural Policy; Rural development; Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/99134
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The non-permanence of optimal soil carbon sequestration AgEcon
Hediger, Werner.
Carbon sequestration in agricultural soils is considered as an option of greenhouse gas mitigation in many countries. But, the economic potential is limited by the dynamic process of saturation and the opportunity cost of land use change. In addition, this article shows that permanence cannot, in general, be achieved in the strict sense of maintaining the soil carbon stock on an increased equilibrium level. Rather, a cyclical pattern with periodical release of sequestered carbon can be economically optimal from both the farmers’ and societal point of view.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agriculture; Climate policy; Carbon sequestration; Land use change; Economic analysis.; Land Economics/Use; Q15; Q24; Q54..
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51057
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The logic of collective action and Australia’s Climate Policy AgEcon
Pezzey, John C.V.; Mazouz, Salim; Jotzo, Frank.
The Australian Government's Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS), March 2009, set a target of 5 to 15 per cent emission cuts during 2000 and 2020. The proposed target is weak and is likely to increase mitigation costs in Australia in the long run. This research report analyses the target’s efficiency as well as provisions for preventing carbon leakage. The research also looks at the nature of changes to the CPRS made during 2008 as well as the likely cause of these changes. The free allocation of output-linked, tradable permits to Emissions-Intensive, Trade-Exposed (EITE) sectors was much higher than previously proposed and greater than what is needed to prevent carbon leakage. This means EITE emissions could rise by 13 per cent during 2010 and...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Climate policy; Australia; Targets; Emission trading; Carbon leakage; Lobbying; Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/94824
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Determining Project-Based Emissions Baselines with Incomplete Information AgEcon
Fischer, Carolyn.
Project-based mechanisms for emissions reductions credits, like the Clean Development Mechanism, pose important challenges for policy design because of several inherent characteristics. Participation is voluntary. Evaluating reductions requires assigning a baseline for a counterfactual that cannot be measured. Some investments have both economic and environmental benefits and might occur anyway. Uncertainty surrounds both emissions and investment returns. Parties to the project are likely to have more information than the certifying authority. The certifying agent is limited in its ability to design a contract that would reveal investment intentions. As a result, rules for baseline determination may be systematically biased to overallocate, and they also...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate policy; Clean Development Mechanism; Baseline emissions; Asymmetric information; Environmental Economics and Policy; D8; Q4.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10520
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Cap-and-Trade: The Evolution of an Economic Idea AgEcon
Tietenberg, Tom.
Over the past three decades or so, emissions trading has evolved from an idea that was little more than an academic curiosity to its current role as the centerpiece of the U.S. program to control acid rain and international programs to control greenhouse gases. This essay identifies some of the key milestones of this evolution, describes how that evolution was shaped by economic analysis, elicits some of the lessons about the design and effectiveness of emissions trading that have emerged from analysis of that evolution, and points out a few of the barriers that lie in the path of achieving a truly global carbon market.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Emissions trading; Cap-and-trade; Climate policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; Political Economy; Public Economics.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/95836
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Model, Model on the Screen, What's the Cost of Going Green? AgEcon
Dowlatabadi, Hadi; Boyd, David R.; MacDonald, Jamie.
How much a policy is expected to cost and who bears the brunt of that cost play a significant role in the debates that shape regulations. We do not have a good track record of predicting costs and their ultimate distribution, but systematic reviews of past assessments have identified some of the factors that lead to errors. A wide range of expected costs of climate policy have been hotly debated, but all are likely to be wrong. This does not mean that we should continue a debate using ill-informed analyses. On the contrary, we need early small experiments to shed light on key unknowns. Environmental stewardship is a long-term challenge and an adaptive regulatory approach promises to inform policy targets and improve controls through sequential regulatory...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Cost estimation; Climate policy; Modeling; Adaptive management; Environmental Economics and Policy; D21; D82; D83; F13; O31.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10806
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Climate Policy, Carbon Leakage and Competitiveness: How Might Border Tax Adjustments Help? AgEcon
Sheldon, Ian M.; McCorriston, Steve.
In this paper, analysis is presented relating to the impact of border tax adjustments for climate policy on the international competitiveness of energy-intensive industries, and the related problem of carbon leakage. While many of the economic and legal issues are not particularly new, climate policy does present some possible twists to the analysis of border tax adjustments when vertically-related markets can be characterized as a successive oligopoly. Specifically, an appropriate border tax adjustment will depend on the incidence of a domestic carbon tax, the nature of competition in upstream and downstream sectors, as well as the basis for assessing the trade neutrality of any border tax adjustment. If trade neutrality is defined in terms of market...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Climate policy; Carbon leakage; Border tax adjustments; Imperfect competition; Environmental Economics and Policy; International Relations/Trade; H87; Q38.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103207
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Global Climate Policy and Corresponding Activities on a City-Level AgEcon
Sippel, Maike.
Cities are not affected by global climate policy and the Kyoto Protocol - however many of them engage in voluntary activities. This paper analyses how communities in general and especially the city of Hamburg can contribute to global climate protection in their citypartnerships according to the slogan "think global, act local". Possible activities are in the fields of awareness-raising, capacity-building, exchange of experiences and joint project implementation. A focus is layed on projects according to the Clean Development Mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol in north-south citypartnerships. There is a clear potential for reduction of transaction costs in this kind of projects due to the institutional links of the citypartnership. For Hamburg, CDM-potential...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: CDM; Citypartnership; Climate policy; Hamburg; Kyoto Protocol; Transaction costs; Environmental Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/26247
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Tax-Versus-Trading and Free Emission Shares as Issues for Climate Policy Design AgEcon
Pezzey, John C.V.; Jotzo, Frank.
We give empirical welfare results for global greenhouse gas emission control, using the first multiparty model to combine tax-versus-trading under uncertainties with revenue recycling. Including multiple parties greatly reduces the welfare advantage of an emissions tax over emissions (permit) trading in handling abatement-cost uncertainties, from that shown by existing, single-party literature. But a tax has a different, much bigger advantage, from better handling uncertainties in business-as-usual emissions. Either mechanism's free emissions share, from tax thresholds or free permits, which lowers its possible welfare gain from revenue recycling, may however dominate any tax-versus-trading advantage. Moreover, political and practical constraints, such as...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Climate policy; Emission pricing; Tax vs. trading; Uncertainties; Revenue recycling; Political economy; Environmental Economics and Policy; D810; H230; Q580.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/95049
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Economic Impacts of GHG and Nutrient Reduction Policies in New Zealand: A Tale of Two Catchments AgEcon
Daigneault, Adam J.; Greenhalgh, Suzie; Samarasinghe, Oshadhi.
Agricultural and forestry GHG emissions are a key feature of New Zealand’s emissions profile, and New Zealand is the only country, to date, to have indicated that agricultural and forestry emissions will be covered under their domestic climate policy – the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme. Coupled with climate policy development is the increasing scrutiny of agricultural impacts on water. This paper uses New Zealand Forest and Agriculture Regional Model (NZ-FARM) to assess the potential economic and environmental impacts of imposing both a climate and nutrient reduction policy on the agricultural and forestry industries in the Manawatu and Hurunui/Waiau catchments in New Zealand. We find that adding a scheme that reduces catchment-level nutrients by...
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Agriculture and forestry modelling; Land use; Climate policy; Water quality; Greenhouse gas emissions; Nutrient leaching; Environmental Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124284
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THE LOGIC OF COLLECTIVE ACTION AND AUSTRALIA'S CLIMATE POLICY AgEcon
Pezzey, John C.V.; Mazouz, Salim; Jotzo, Frank.
We thank two anonymous referees and the Department of Climate Change for helpful comments. This research was supported financially by the Environmental Economics Research Hub of the Australian Government's Commonwealth Environment Research Facilities program.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Climate policy; Australia; Targets; Emission trading; Carbon leakage; Lobbying; Environmental Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59577
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The Role of R&D and Technology Diffusion in Climate Change Mitigation: New Perspectives Using the Witch Model AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; Duval, Romain; Sgobbi, Alessandra; Tavoni, Massimo.
This paper uses the WITCH model, a computable general equilibrium model with endogenous technological change, to explore the impact of various climate policies on energy technology choices and the costs of stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations. Current and future expected carbon prices appear to have powerful effects on R&D spending and clean technology diffusion. Their impact on stabilisation costs depends on the nature of R&D: R&D targeted at incremental energy efficiency improvements has only limited effects, but R&D focused on the emergence of major new low-carbon technologies could lower costs drastically if successful – especially in the non-electricity sector, where such low-carbon options are scarce today. With emissions coming...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate policy; Energy R&D; Fund; Stabilisation costs; Environmental Economics and Policy; H0; H2; H3; H4; O3; Q32; Q43; Q54.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50363
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Project-Based Mechanisms for Emissions Reductions: Balancing Trade-offs with Baselines AgEcon
Fischer, Carolyn.
Project-based mechanisms for emissions reductions credits, like the Clean Development Mechanism, pose important challenges for policy design because of several inherent characteristics. Participation is voluntary, so it will not occur without sufficient credits. Evaluating reductions requires assigning an emissions baseline for a counterfactual that cannot be measured. Some investments have both economic and environmental benefits and might occur anyway. Uncertainty surrounds both emissions and investment returns, and parties to the project are likely to have more information than the certifying authority. The certifying agent is limited in its ability to design a contract that would reveal investment intentions. As a result, rules for benchmarking...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate policy; Clean Development Mechanism; Baselines; Asymmetric information; Offsets; Emissions reduction; Tradable emissions permits; Environmental Economics and Policy; D8; Q4.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10836
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Climate Policy and Border Tax Adjustments: Some New Wine Mixed with Old Wine in New Green Bottles? AgEcon
Sheldon, Ian M..
Current policy discussions are making a very clear connection between domestic climate policies and international trade. In this article, the economic, legal and implementation issues relating to border tax adjustments for climate policies are discussed. The overall conclusion drawn is that the connection between trade and the environment is not new, having been discussed in considerable detail since the early 1990s, and reflected in an extensive economics literature. In addition, the legal aspects of border tax adjustments are not particularly new, although only a WTO ruling on their use in the presence of domestic climate policies will resolve any legal uncertainty about their use. However, there are some new issues concerning the determination and...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Climate policy; Competitiveness; Border tax adjustment; Environmental Economics and Policy; Financial Economics; Political Economy.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/90594
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Discounting the Distant Future: How Much Do Uncertain Rates Increase Valuations? AgEcon
Newell, Richard G.; Pizer, William A..
Costs and benefits in the distant future-such as those associated with global warming, long-lived infrastructure, hazardous and radioactive waste, and biodiversity-often have little value today when measured with conventional discount rates. We demonstrate that when the future path of this conventional rate is uncertain and persistent (i.e., highly correlated over time), the distant future should be discounted at lower rates than suggested by the current rate. We then use two centuries of data on U.S. interest rates to quantify this effect. Using both random walk and mean-reverting models, we compute the certainty-equivalent rate that is, the single discount rate that summarizes the effect of uncertainty and measures the appropriate forward rate of...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Discounting; Uncertainty; Interest rate forecasting; Climate policy; Intergenerational equity; Risk and Uncertainty; D90; E47; C53; H43; Q28.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10743
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Auctioning Greenhouse Gas Emissions Permits in Australia AgEcon
Betz, Regina; Seifert, Stefan; Cramton, Peter; Kerr, Suzi.
Allocating permits based on individual historical emissions (‘grandfathering’), or industry benchmark data, is an important design aspect of an emissions trading scheme. Free permit allocation has proven complex and inefficient (particularly in the European Union) with distribution implications also politically difficult to justify. For these reasons, auctioning emissions permits has become more popular than allocating permits. The European Union is now moving towards auctioning more than 50 per cent of all permits in 2013. In the US, the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) has started with auctioning 100 per cent of permits. The Australian proposal for a Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS) also provides for auctioning a significant share of...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Climate policy; Greenhouse gases; Auctions; Emissions trading; Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/94878
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Fiddling while carbon burns: why climate policy needs pervasive emission pricing as well as technology promotion AgEcon
Pezzey, John C.V.; Jotzo, Frank; Quiggin, John C..
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Asia–Pacific Partnership; Climate policy; Pricing; Technology; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/117740
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