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	Provedor de dados Ecology and Society (2) Autor Anderson, Judith L; Dept. of Psychology, Simon Fraser University; janderso@sfu.ca (1) Byg, Anja; Social, Economic and Geographical Sciences Group, James Hutton Institute, UK; anja.byg@hutton.ac.uk (1) Thornton, Thomas F; Oxford University, School of Geography and the Environment; thomas.thornton@ouce.ox.ac.uk (1) Palavra-chave Cognitive psychology (2) Adaptive strategies (1) Bayesian decision analysis (1) Bayesian statistical analysis (1) Cognitive illusion (1) Expert elicitation of probabilities. (1) Frequency (1) Judgment under uncertainty (1) Local knowledge (1) Ontologies (1) Probability (1) Small-scale societies (1) Mais... Tipo do documento Peer-Reviewed Reports (2) Ano 2016 (1) 1998 (1) País Canada (2) Idioma Inglês (2)		Ordenar por:  Relevância Autor Título Ano Registros recuperados: 2 Primeira ... 1 ... Última Embracing Uncertainty: The Interface of Bayesian Statistics and Cognitive Psychology Ecology and Society Anderson, Judith L; Dept. of Psychology, Simon Fraser University; janderso@sfu.ca. Ecologists working in conservation and resource management are discovering the importance of using Bayesian analytic methods to deal explicitly with uncertainty in data analyses and decision making. However, Bayesian procedures require, as inputs and outputs, an idea that is problematic for the human brain: the probability of a hypothesis ("single-event probability"). I describe several cognitive concepts closely related to single-event probabilities, and discuss how their interchangeability in the human mind results in "cognitive illusions," apparent deficits in reasoning about uncertainty. Each cognitive illusion implies specific possible pitfalls for the use of single-event probabilities in ecology and resource management. I then discuss recent research... Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Cognitive psychology; Judgment under uncertainty; Cognitive illusion; Bayesian statistical analysis; Bayesian decision analysis; Probability; Frequency; Expert elicitation of probabilities.. Ano: 1998 Global environmental change: local perceptions, understandings, and explanations Ecology and Society Byg, Anja; Social, Economic and Geographical Sciences Group, James Hutton Institute, UK; anja.byg@hutton.ac.uk; Thornton, Thomas F; Oxford University, School of Geography and the Environment; thomas.thornton@ouce.ox.ac.uk. Global environmental change (GEC) is an increasingly discussed phenomenon in the scientific literature as evidence of its presence and impacts continues to grow. Yet, while the documentation of GEC is becoming more readily available, local perceptions of GEC— particularly in small-scale societies—and preferences about how to deal with it, are still largely overlooked. Local knowledge and perceptions of GEC are important in that agents make decisions (including on natural resource management) based on individual perceptions. We carried out a systematic literature review that aims to provide an exhaustive state-of-the-art of the degree to and manner in which the study of local perceptions of change are being addressed in GEC research. We... Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Adaptive strategies; Cognitive psychology; Local knowledge; Ontologies; Small-scale societies. Ano: 2016 Registros recuperados: 2 Primeira ... 1 ... Última

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