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Betting on cotton: Potential payoffs and economic risks of adopting transgenic cotton in West Africa AgEcon
Falck-Zepeda, Jose Benjamin; Horna, J. Daniela; Smale, Melinda.
Cotton is the largest source of export receipts in several West African nations where yields are declining and pesticide use is rising. Although there may be payoffs to introducing genetically modified Bt (Bacillus thurigiensis) cotton, limited information is available to predict its potential economic impact and there is uncertainty about its performance. Recognizing these constraints, we use an economic surplus model augmented with stochastic simulation to estimate ex ante the impact and distribution of benefits from Bt cotton. We consider the effects of adoption on both yields and abating crop damage, and offer scenarios depicting the policy options faced by West African stakeholders. The findings indicate that although the total net benefits of...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Crop biotechnology; Bt cotton; Economic surplus model; West Africa; Agricultural development; Risk; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56962
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