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Analysis of Expected Price Dynamics Between Fluid Milk Futures Contracts and Cash Prices for Fluid Milk AgEcon
Fortenbery, T. Randall; Cropp, Robert A.; Zapata, Hector O..
Future contracts for fluid milk began trading in late 1995 and early 1996. This paper investigates the potential use of fluid milk futures contracts as hedge vehicles for dairy producers in the Upper Midwest and California markets. This is done by developing simulated futures prices for the period 1988 to 1995. The simulated futures prices are used to estimate basis relationships between cash and futures prices for the markets considered. Results suggest that the fluid milk futures contracts could be used to reduce market price risk for producers in the Upper Midwest. Results were less conclusive for California producers.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Fluid milk futures; Contracts; Basis; Dairy markets; Agribusiness; Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 1997 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/90427
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Do MILC Program Payments Affect Milk Supply Response Across Regions of the U.S.? AgEcon
Herndon, Cary W., Jr.; Davis, Brandon L.; Parkhurst, Gregory M..
This paper assesses the impact of the milk income loss contract program on U.S. dairy producers. The Milk Income Loss Contact (MILC) program was created through the 2002 farm bill, which financially compensates dairy producers when domestic milk prices fall below a predetermined Boston Class I trigger price. MILC payments were made to eligible dairy producers/farms on a per cwt basis at a rate equal to 45 percent of the difference between the trigger price of $16.94 and the Boston Class I milk price. In the analysis, the 20 major milk-producing states were analyzed to determine if MILC payments caused a milk supply response to be different across these states. By dividing the U.S. into states, this will give a better understanding of production decisions...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Dairy markets; MILC; Milk prices; Milk supply response; Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19438
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THE IMPACT OF THE BERLIN ACCORD AND EUROPEAN ENLARGEMENT ON DAIRY MARKETS AgEcon
Fuller, Frank H.; Beghin, John C.; Mohanty, Samarendu; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Fang, Cheng; Kaus, Phillip J..
Using a world agricultural model, we analyze the impact on dairy markets of the Berlin Accord on the European Union (EU) Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) Reforms. We also investigate the consequences of enlargement of the EU to include the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland for the same markets. We produce a market outlook up to 2010 for these two scenarios. The Berlin Accord induces lower EU milk and dairy prices. A change in relative prices between cheese and butter-skim milk powder (SMP) occurs after 2005 and induces an expansion of cheese production, consumption, and exports at the expense of the butter-SMP sector. Accession of the three Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) leads to a permanent but moderate decrease in EU prices of milk and...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Berlin Accord; Common Agricultural Policy; Dairy markets; European Union enlargement; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 1999 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18332
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Trade Liberalization in International Dairy Markets: Estimated Impacts AgEcon
Langley, Suchada V.; Somwaru, Agapi; Normile, Mary Anne.
A partial-equilibrium, multiple-commodity, multiregion model of agricultural policy and trade is used to simulate the effects of changes in domestic and trade policy on dairy production, consumption, prices, and trade. Simulations using the ERS-Penn State Trade model analyze the effects of separately and concurrently relaxing domestic income and price supports, and import restrictions and export subsidies, with special attention to tariff-rate and milk production quotas. Modeling results indicate that liberalization would reduce world dairy product supplies and increase the value of dairy trade.
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Dairy markets; Dairy policy; Trade models; Global liberalization; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7214
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