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Risk in Public Policy Making: A Neglected Issue in Australia AgEcon
Hardaker, J. Brian; Fleming, Euan M.; Lien, Gudbrand D..
We argue for greater recognition of the risky nature of most policy decisions. In this context we discuss the gulf between public risk perceptions and attitudes and those of 'experts'. Public views of risk are often inconsistent and seemingly irrational. They nevertheless influence policy choices in a democracy. On the other hand, experts often claim unjustifiable levels of confidence in their predictions of policy choice outcomes, creating a lack of public faith in their recommendations. While risky policy choices deserve more systematic decision analysis, there is a need for more effective interaction between policy makers, decision analysts and the public.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Policy-making; Risk; Uncertainty; Decision Analysis; Perceptions; Subjectivity; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Political Economy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/5997
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The Role of Risk in the Decision to Produce Post-Decoupling - A Stochastic Budgeting Example AgEcon
Thorne, Fiona S.; Hennessy, Thia C..
Under the Mac Sharry and Agenda 2000 reforms, direct payments comprised a significant portion of farmers' income in the EU. Farmers had to engage in production to receive these payments but the payments were relatively risk-free and therefore risk may not have played an important role in the production decision. This paper considers the effect of the decoupling of direct payments from production in the EU and in particular, on the role of production risk in the decision making process. In an environment where direct payments are completely decoupled from production, farmers may engage in an 'entitlement farming' system, that is retain their land only to activate the decoupled payment and not actually produce any tangible goods. This paper examines the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Decoupling; Risk Analysis; Production Risk; Decision Analysis; Stochastic Modelling; Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12; Q18.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25415
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